What percentage of time do you and your opponent both miss the flop?

Also percentage of time you and opponent both miss the flop and turn together?


Just wondering because if im up against a tight/slight nitty reg in 5NL and the board comes Jh 6c 7s

with me having Ac 10s in the button
and villain in the small blind

Normally i would make a c-bet here and double barrel the turn

if something like a Q or K ( scare card ) comes out

If been finding this move to be plus EV, but just trying to see the math behind it , more than likely a tight reg wont be calling the double barrel if they havent hit a pair or dont have a draw

but what are the chances that my opponent and I both have missed the flop and the turn?

this of course varies across boards, but on avarege a player will miss the board 2/3 of the time, so both players missing is 2/3*2/3, or 4/9. This of course doesnt account for ranges, for example with tight ranges both players will be top-cards heavy, meaning they will both miss more often (but will have pocket pairs more often, not sure how you want to account for those).

As for you example, when you open AT on the button and the flop comes J67r, AT is pretty high up in your range and you should treat it as showdown value, thus checking it more often than betting on the flop. Your default cbets ranges should be polarized, meaning that you shuold bet very good hands (top pair or better) and very weak hands, like T9 or Q8, while checking bluffcatchers like 6x, 7x or decent A highs.

The 2/3 probability is for a non-hit on the flop. It will be lower for the turn. Given no pair on the flop, there is a 6/47 = 13% chance of pairing on the turn. Therefore the probability a player does not hit on the turn is no greater than 41/47 * 2/3 = 60%. This is a maximum because it doesn’t account for flushes and straights.

You also have to define what "miss the flop" means. If somebody plays only AA, the odds of him improving his hand on the flop are significantly smaller than somebody who plays only T2o because the latter one has 6 outs to improve while AA has only 2 outs.

The problem is that you aren't asking the right question. You are giving a scenario where you missed the flop, and you wonder what are the chances that both of you missed the flop. In this scenario, the probability that you missed the flop is 100%. So you are asking for the conditional probability that he missed the flop, given that you have missed the flop. This is going to be very close to the same probability of one person missing the flop.

In any event, however, a lot does depend on the nature of the board. Some flops are right in a caller's wheelhouse, and other times they aren't even close.

I think the converse to the question posed by the op, or "odds/percentace of you and your opponent hitting the flop and turn," is much more interesting because that's where the big pots are won or lost.

also, this:

Welcome to playing poker, not cards!

Image v Image, Range v Range, Nitty Sticky Passive or Nitty TAG?

Usually in these spots the aggressor will take it down .. but what if your V missed the Flop but holds 99 ... or 44? How does that change their approach to a c-bet on this board when they are OOP?

When in a hand like this the aggressor's story needs to make sense within their image and range because it's pretty 'easy' to call bets in a lot of cases where a player just wouldn't bet out. Be ready to double/triple barrel in order to get your message across to the 99 type of hand. GL

The nit reg that flats in the SB is usually set-mining, so he's often got "something" on the flop. You can barrel on high cards to get him off hands like 99/88, but you're gonna lose a lot when he spikes a set.

Thanks , clears up my questions, especially the fact that ranges mostly high card oriented. Wanted to just make sure my semi aggressive play would make sense mathematically, especially when most regs at 5nL are nits.

It works until they realise what you're doing and repop you with any two

The guys who are able to do that won't stay long at NL5 though.