I know each on its own is 1/3. So the combo would be 2/3 on the flop? And 2/5 on the turn?

your normally around 50% with a huge draw on flop give or take a few % depending on what your up against. But obv we dont know exacty hands so when we use ranges we do really well as people can have worse draws and TPs.

so say we have J T on

8 9 3 vs AA

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.444% 54.44% 00.00% 3234 0.00 { JdTd }
Hand 1: 45.556% 45.56% 00.00% 2706 0.00 { AA }


Same hand and board but vs a set it decreases.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.121% 42.12% 00.00% 1251 0.00 { JdTd }
Hand 1: 57.879% 57.88% 00.00% 1719 0.00 { 88 }

lol

To hit by river:
OESD - 2.18 to 1
FD - 1.86 to 1
OESFD - 0.848 to 1 (54% assuming all outs are clean)

Question of my own - how many of OP's posts haven't been OPs?

Find threads started by purplebliss lists 28.

He currently has 96 posts, so the answer's 68.

I def need to get out more.

lol

A better question would be, "How many of OP's posts are in threads not started by OP?" I'm sure that number will be much lower.

To purplebliss: We all admire your enthusiasm and willingness to ask questions (this subforum does say "ask your possibly naive questions here" and you hold nothing back), but at some point you need to be willing to figure some things out for yourself. It's the only way you'll improve both your play, and your thought process.

For instance, I'll show you how to calculate the odds of your open-ended straight and flush draw coming in on either the turn or river. The easiest way is to first figure out the likelihood of it not hitting on either the turn or river. 15 cards out of 47 help your hand, which means that 32 do not help your hand. 32/47 = .681. Assuming the turn was a miss, you still have 15 outs, out of 46 cards. So 31 cards out of 46 don't help you. 31/46 = .674. Multiply these two percentages together and you get .681 * .674 = .459. That's how often you won't make your hand by the river, so now you subtract that number from 1 to see how often you do make it. 1 - .459 = .541. Multiply by 100 to convert to proper percentage, so it's 54.1%. You're somewhat better than a coinflip to make your draw against an overpair.

You'll never actually do this at the table, but it's still important to understand how it's done. You should have certain percentages memorized anyway, and this is actually a good method of committing them to memory.

Teach a man to fish...

And he'll sit in a boat drinking beer all day.

Good explanation. Is 47 is used in the denominator b/c you see your two cards and the three cards on the flop? There are actually 23 cards out at a 10 handed table after the flop (24 with the burn card), but since you don't know anything about the ones you can't see in other people's hands, they end up in the calculation. Makes sense.

Thanks!

^^^ That's correct. Your outs could be in another player's hand, they could be a burn card, or they could be way down at the bottom of the deck. You have no way of knowing so you don't discount them. Obviously, if the dealer accidentally flips up a card while dealing, or someone exposes one of his cards when folding, you remove that one from the calculation.

What does a "clean out" mean?

This means with OESFD you have the pot odds to call a pot sized bet on the flop, right?

Yes and No.

No, ignoring all other factors (implied odds etc) with an OESFD you have the correct pots odds to call roughly 60 percent (half pot) bet on the flop.

Except, yes, if you are calling all in.

You need to read about about odds and probabilities...and how they are applied.

That doesn't make sense. I can call 1/2 pot bet on the flop with either a regular flush draw or open-ender straight draw ALONE. Combined I should be able to call a pot-sized bet.

You're wrong, but instead of telling you why you're wrong I'm going to help you figure it out yourself. (WARNING: this will require you to do a little bit of work.) Please work through the following questions and answer them:

1. How many outs do you have when you have a flush draw?
2. How many outs do you have when you have an open-ended straight draw?
3. How many outs do you have when you have both? (Careful. Think about this one for a bit. If it took you less than half a second to answer, you're probably wrong.)
4. When you have both, what is the percentage you will make it on the turn? (number of outs divided by number of unseen cards * 100)
5. What percentage of equity does your hand need to have if you're calling a pot-sized bet?
6. Considering absolutely no factor other than your current pot odds, can you profitably call a pot-sized bet on the flop with an open-ended straight draw and flush draw? (Assume no pair outs are good.)

If some of this seems a little intense, don't fret. I actually did some of this work for you already in that post a few spaces above this one that you apparently glossed over. Go back and read it. This is BASIC stuff. If you're not willing to do this inital work you have little hope in succeeding in this game.

Wise man say..."when you are in a hole, stop digging."

Thank you for pushing me to do the work. I'm not afraid of work but sometimes I can use a gentle push. I will try to answer to the best of my ability below.

1. How many outs do you have when you have a flush draw?

13-2-2= 9

2. How many outs do you have when you have an open-ended straight draw?

Need either of two cards. 4 suits. 2 * 4 = 8

3. How many outs do you have when you have both? (Careful. Think about this one for a bit. If it took you less than half a second to answer, you're probably wrong.)

My mistake was I combined #1 and #2 ignoring the fact that 2 of the OESD outs are also FD outs. SO OESD outs should be counted for only 3 suits, not 4. 2*3=6. So 6 + 9 = 15

4. When you have both, what is the percentage you will make it on the turn? (number of outs divided by number of unseen cards * 100)

15 / 47 * 100 ~ 32%

5. What percentage of equity does your hand need to have if you're calling a pot-sized bet?

50%? But I'm unclear on something. When discussing pot odds for draws on the flop I thought people were mostly discussing the %s of hitting your draw BY THE RIVER, not on the turn. In other words using the 2 next cards rather than one. But in #4 you asked me about 1 card effectively, while I decide to call or not "by the river" criteria not the "on the turn" one. I'm not clear on this.

6. Considering absolutely no factor other than your current pot odds, can you profitably call a pot-sized bet on the flop with an open-ended straight draw and flush draw? (Assume no pair outs are good.)

If we're talking about hitting it on the turn only - then no. But by the river - I'm not sure.

And I'm still not done working on this but this is what I got so far.

1) Why do you multiply rather than add here? So when it's "OR" you add and when it's "AND" you multiply?

2) OK, so 54.1%. That's better than 1:1 so I can call even a bigger than pot-sized bet on the flop.

With a 54.1% chance to make your hand I would think you not only have the odds to call, but it is in your best interest to get as much money into the pot as possible.

If the pot is $100, and someone makes a pot-sized $100 bet, it pushes the pot up to $200. You have to call $100 to win $200, so your pot odds are 2:1. With 2:1 odds you need 33.3% equity to call. As you found out, you have a bit less than 32% equity to make the hand on the turn. So, calling the bet will, in a vacuum, be a slightly losing play. As for why you should base your decision on your odds of making the hand on the next street only, it's in cases where there's very likely to be more betting on the next street. If you call the pot-sized bet on the flop and miss, with only one card to come you are now an underdog. If he fires another pot-sized bet, you won't be able to profitably call (you have slightly better odds on the turn because there's one less card to choose from, but they haven't improved to the 33.3% you need). Remember, we're not factoring implied odds in here at all, so we're assuming that had you hit on the turn, he would have shut down.

Actually, if it's "or" and you try to add the percentages, you get an inaccurate result. I can't even explain why. But when you add the two probabilities together you get .645, or 64.5%. That number is wrong. I don't know how to explain why, but it is. This is why you have to take the liklihood you won't make the hand on either the turn or the river, then subtract from 1 to find out the likelihood you'll make it on either the turn or the river.

If he pushes all-in, the betting is over and you're guaranteed to get better than 1:1 so it's a call. This exercise was considering we're going to play our hand as passively as possible with no implied odds. This seems trivial, but it's important to recognize the times where you're not getting the right price from expressed odds alone, so you can begin to figure what you need for implied odds (or fold equity, if you think you have some).

One last note: We're making the assumption that we're only against an overpair here. Our odds are considerably worse if we're up against a set, to the point where we are about a 3:2 underdog on the flop.

Nope

Not helpful.

Op, forget all about odds for one moment and starting thinking about such things as the law of probabilty and gamblers fallacy.

If I plan to toss a coin 10 times, probability suggests I will get close to an even number of heads and tails.

So if go ahead and toss it and it comes up up heads nine times straight the odds of it coming up heads on the 10th toss are....evens. Put another way, probability can be "aggregated" looking forwards, but looking back (history) it cannot. If you wiki "gamblers fallacy" they have a neat little coin toss demo simulating this.

So on the flop (as you correctly surmise) you OESFD has great equity (generally at least 50%) however, that does not mean you can call a pot sized bet (stipulating ignoring all other factors, as we keep saying). This is because if you miss on the flop (which you will do roughly 2 times out of 3) all that lovely equity evaporates and you are folding to another large bet.

Bringing in some other factors:

You could call a pot sized bet on the flop, if you had some reason to think villain would check/bet small the turn (unlikely, villain has spotted danger, which is why he is making a pot sized bet in the first place)

You could call a pot sized bet on the flop if you've reason to believe villain will pay you off when you hit. Remember, it's hard to get good villains to pay you off on when your flush hits.

So if you want to use all that equity and you are IP to a pot sized bet on the flop, you could just shove it on the flop (the all in flop semi bluff). The dead money + your equity + your fold equity will make this plus EV.

Often however, this won't be necessary, because you won't be facing a pot sized bet, so a mixture of direct odds and implied odds, plus villains tendencies mean you can get better value from you monster draw playing it slower.

It's pretty important you get your head round this as OESFD are pretty rare and pretty easy to play. OESD & FSD happen all the time and are much trickier to play correctly, so you need to know what's going on equity wise.

Hope this helps

PS

One last point...calling draws (of any sort) without the correct odds is what fish do, and what we want them to do.

It's because of the failure to account for the possibility of hitting on both the turn and the river.

This seems about right.

Why not?

Again why not? 50% is 1:1 odds which means pot-sized bet.

IP = In Position?

Well, I'm a newb but since some people want me to contribute my opinion regardless here goes.

1) First off all did you see both straight draw and flush draw in the board texture? If you did, then we can move on to the next step

2) It looks like you made the right play. Your ship denied her the odds to chase her OESFD but she called anyway. Nothing you can do. Another thing, if it was a tourney, unless you're playing 40000NL cash, you should've considered her stack size. If it was small enough than she would be committed and call your ship despite not getting the odds - in that case you could just call and see if she bricks on the turn, etc.

No. I explained what is wrong with this in my last post. Did you read it? What didn't you understand?

Yes.