Hand one is good.
Hand two, with showdown value, I'd definitely be checking the flop to let him bluff at it with whatever he has.

Just be patient and let them bluff into you when you're strong.

I just seem to make the wrong decisions too much against these guys.
I know they bluff, yet I fold my 1-pair + FD type hands.
Sometimes I call and they have a weak pair or a draw, sometimes 2 pair or set - I don't think I get it right often enough.

Here's one where I called. Actually he has a lot of equity on the flop so it isn't a bad play by him, but I don't think he knows that - perhaps he thinks 'he'll fold a lot and sometimes I win', which is pretty much right.
Feel a mug when I call and they have a set though and I have 8%.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): $9.64
CO: $12.73 (VPIP: 36.99, PFR: 24.66, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 74)
BTN: $4.28 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: $5.48 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 25.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 35)
BB: $4.32 (VPIP: 63.16, PFR: 12.28, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 57)
UTG: $7.02 (VPIP: 14.12, PFR: 9.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 85)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has Q Q

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, BTN calls $0.15, fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47, 3 players) T 2 6
BB checks, Hero bets $0.35, BTN raises to $0.70, fold, Hero raises to $1.60, BTN raises to $4.13 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.53

Turn: ($8.73, 2 players) 9

River: ($8.73, 2 players) J

If u have a whale in the BB start opening bigger with your strong hands, 4x or more, see how far you can push it.

Flop is standard, far more FDs or TP hands he thinks he's protecting than value hands

Lately I've noticed myself rarely 3betting any flops.
Say if I have a rather strong hand and I get X/R'd, I'm usually more inclined to call and then call river/turn on cards that don't seem to be too damaging for my hand. Would you guys say this is a mistake?

A perfect example actually would be the QQ hand that Studebaker posted. I'd be more inclined to flat the raise with the overpair rather than 3bet/GII, as a lot of the times I have a feeling that there isn't much worse that can call, and 3bet/calling is pretty strong.

I would have agreed with this until recently, then i read bozzer's post.

This villain is showing themselves to be aggro. I don't think you're burning money here if it turns out they are being smacked by the deck on this occasion as the situation seems to be +EV.

Everytime a fish limps and you iso with K6o from button...what kind of winrate do you expect at micros longterm with that hand ? Keep rake in mind.

probably something really marginal but its hard to know since its dependent on so many factors.

Oly, as with anything in poker, we should rarely *always* do something. Everything we do is player and situation dependent.

Generically, i'd be more inclined to play strong hands faster OOP than IP, as we have no control over the betting and potsize, but then you also need to take into account board texture and how much equity villain likely has against your hand. Don't let him draw to the river for cheap and 'see' all of his equity.

Remember the fundamental theory of poker:
Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.

Don't know what I would expect long term. I mean I may not even play K6o, it depends a lot on who are in the blinds and the limper.

If the limper tends to limp-fold then it' an easy open IMO. If the limper tend to fold a lot vs c-bets then I'll iso with K6o. However if the limper isn't terrible and just plays poorly and too passive preflop, like a 23/8 then I may not open. If I'm getting 3-bet a lot by the blinds then I may not open it either.

But opening Axo and Kxo isn't terrible vs limpers. You have a high card and position. Of course I'd rather have some suited hand, but I was just saying that people should be isoing very wide IP vs fish.

Anyone donking this flop multiway? I'm thinking the call pre was pretty bad too, but not too sure whether it's completely bad because we're deep

PokerStars - $0.16 Ante $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $20.04 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: $16.84 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BTN: $49.99 (VPIP: 26.05, PFR: 21.85, 3Bet Preflop: 20.62, Hands: 247)
SB: $34.63 (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (BB): $41.90
UTG: $40.00 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)

SB posts SB $0.08, Hero posts BB $0.16, 6 players post ante of $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.48) Hero has K 8

UTG raises to $0.48, MP calls $0.48, fold, BTN calls $0.48, SB calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.32

Flop: ($2.64, 5 players) 7 Q 7
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, BTN bets $1.76

And some hands where apparently being a ~90% favourite just isn't good enough.










Safe to say variance has caught up with me. Time for that break I was speaking about. Ciao xo

small session, some EV profit. I don't like my playstyle atm. I guess i should keep it simple, but i don't want to be a folding machine either. Players are more aggro in zoom so i keep coming up with some creative stories

h1: I hate playing missed AK. I shoved hoping that one of the short stacks would call.
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $2.38 (VPIP: 36.36, PFR: 36.36, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 13)
SB: $5.86 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
BB: $5.00 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero (UTG): $5.06
MP: $2.39
CO: $3.92 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A K

Hero raises to $0.20, MP calls $0.20, fold, BTN calls $0.20, fold, BB raises to $1.05, Hero raises to $5.06 and is all-in,

h2: kinda ****ed up hand. fold readless right?
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $9.11 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (SB): $9.80
BB: $2.87 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
UTG: $12.75 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
MP: $11.51 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 5)
CO: $4.93

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K A

fold, fold, CO calls $0.05, BTN raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.10, 2 players) 9 A T
Hero bets $0.60, BTN raises to $1.35, Hero?????


And this one. I won the hand but not too proud of it. Apart from sets he can have sc's. I didn't believe that he had a straight.

Joining the thread aswell

My modest October goals:

- Win 20 buy ins at NL2 and start shot taking again at NL5
- 15k+ hands
- Post tricky hands here

Here's a graph to show how I'm running lately @ NL2



Good luck to everyone and thank you Dunna

Ouch! Chin up, and good luck.

Take the ev line off your graph tho, it serves no purpose at 2nl and may even hinder ur progress if you keep looking at it

Just curious but I'm wondering what people's fascination with the EV line is. Does it serve any purpose other than telling you if you've been 'lucky' or 'unlucky'? I honestly don't know. I never look at it.

I had a conversation with my brother about this earlier. He likes it as it tells him if he's been making the right decisions and just getting unlucky, or playing badly and getting lucky.

I said to him that it means very little in the short term, and that just coz you got your money in when you were behind doesn't mean you played the hand badly. He ignored me as usual (he's a small stakes fish) but I think my point is valid.

I've taken the EV line off my HM graph. Just makes you feel bad, whichever way you look at it.

October goals
[ ] play 4k hands at 5nl 6 max
[ ] be 20 buy ins up ( $50 usd)
[ ] atleast 2 hours a week watching training vids on 6 max cash
[ ] spend 2 hours a week going over hands played
[ ] play 400 hu sng turbos (combo of 1.5's and 3.50's)
[ ] make 850 VPP's to clear my stellar reward for $50

EV line is a better indicator of WR than your green line.

FYP

Just when I was complaining about running bad.





Still, I think the flop + stack sizes are perfect examples as to the way I've been running as of late.

Stupid regs.




If you check back the flop and raise the turn your line looks FOS. I bet to try to take down the pot but felt pretty good about my hand when he raised. At times you come up against some poorly played pocket pairs, but I doubt he ever raises the turn here with anything that has showdown value, UNLESS he cbet and for some reason I donked the turn. He definitely doesn't 4x shove the river for value either.

Strongly disagree. IIRC, TheWorstPlayer wrote on this.

Win with AA vs. KK all in preflop and you'll be running above EV but I don't think you have made the wrong decision.

I agree with raikkonen. Your EV line removes the influence of a factor which causes your perceived winrate to differ from your 'true' winrate (i.e. one element of variance). With less variance, you can be more certain in your winrate.

Not sure if PT is capable of this but it'd be nice to get stdev on greenline and EV line compared.

It's always fun when someone "strongly disagrees" with maths. TDA just perfectly explained it, in no way is it perfect but it is best indication we have to find our true winrate.

I think EV lines are false in some regards. The times you get it in with KK against AA and only have 20% equity is okay, but it's not as though you told yourself "I'll get it in with KK because there's a 20% chance that I'll win the pot because villain only has AA here". You think "I'll get it in preflop with KK, because against even a tight AIPF range of QQ+ and AK I'm a favourite to win over the long haul".

If EV was calculated on range it would be more realistic I think, but it's not so yeah.