Quote:
Originally Posted by daveh07
Ok 25c / 50c blinds
Lets say you hold KT spades and you raise 4x from the button everyone folds and the big blind calls.... now flop comes
(pot currently is $4.25)
Js 9c 3h
Villain donks $3 at you he is unknown no reads what do you do?? do you call this and hope he checks turn and try to steal it... do you raise it?? its already a decent amount bet so raising might be spew or do you just lay it down? This situation happens frequently and I am just wondering your opinion on this
I dont understand how any of this makes sense?
First off. 3$ into a 4.25$ is a donk bet now?? Guess I better increase my value betting.
Lets see. Villian called a 4x BB raise from an obviously overaggressive button/on the steal player.
You have what with this hand? A back door straight and flush draw. So..2 outs. MAYBE an overcard draw since a bet like with no reads puts his range @ 88-AA,AJ,KJ,QJ,J10 and less likely 33. So at the most you have 5 outs. And with this bet I assume you have 2(1 for each of the backdoor draws).
Are you deciding whether or not to call with King high and a double backdoor?
What exactly do you play on doing on the next betting round?
Lets say your king comes on the turn... ~7% of the time.
Lets say when your king comes that 7% of the time, 60% of the time it actually is an out. (The other times he would have been holding 33, 99, KJ, AA) The other 40% of the time you are paying off a bigger hand.
Lets look at the other possible holdings.
AJ - You might get paid off a little but the K might scare him enough to drop the hand.
QJ - He has now picked up a straight draw and will either draw out and beat you or you will get paid off slightly if he doesn't hit his draw on the river.
J10 - This hand will fold after a call and a bet I assume. no implied odds here.
I dont see how a call can be profitable. If can put him on an underpair such as 88 or 10's. or J10. A raise might give you some FE here, but other than that. No.