Open Side Menu Go to the Top

06-04-2020 , 03:24 PM
being 80% probable and losing 5 events in a row is 0.0003% likely or about 3000 to 1 ?
is this math right ? Quote
is this math right ?
$25m Guaranteed WPM on CoinPoker
Join the action now
Daily Rewards • Splash Pots • CoinRaces
is this math right ?
06-04-2020 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amarri
being 80% probable and losing 5 events in a row is 0.0003% likely or about 3000 to 1 ?
The probability is 0.00032 or 0.032% (which is roughly 1 in 3000)
is this math right ? Quote
06-04-2020 , 04:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by antialias
The probability is 0.00032 or 0.032% (which is roughly 1 in 3000)
do you know the exact equation ?
if it were 80% 80% 80% 80% and THEN 60% it would be what ?
is this math right ? Quote
06-04-2020 , 05:56 PM
I'm not sure I understand your question correctly. Are you asking how to multiply percentages?

If you want to know how likely it is for two independent events to both occur, you multiply their respective probabilities. So if something happens 90% of the time and you want to know how likely it is for it to happen twice in a row, you multiply 0.9 * 0.9 = 0.81 = 81%.

If you want to know how likely it is for something to not happen when the probability for it to happen is 80%, you subtract that number from 100%. So 1 - 0.8 = 0.2 = 20%.

If you want to know how likely it is for you losing with 80% equity four times in a row, followed by losing with 60% equity, you multiply 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.4
is this math right ? Quote
06-04-2020 , 07:16 PM
Ok thanks madlex and others
is this math right ? Quote
06-05-2020 , 02:57 PM
To be clear the probabilities given above are always the chance for the very next five events only. Over a longer span it increases as 1 - (1-P)^x
Where x is how many series of 5.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 06-05-2020 at 03:05 PM.
is this math right ? Quote
is this math right ?
$25m Guaranteed WPM on CoinPoker
Join the action now
Daily Rewards • Splash Pots • CoinRaces
is this math right ?

      
m