[MATH QUIESTION] How to correctly count combos for a break even call - Beginning Poker Questions

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[MATH QUIESTION] How to correctly count combos for a break even call

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11-10-2022 , 09:14 AM

aeh7ES

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 31

I was wondering if somebody could help me figure out the following.

In this spot by the river I'm facing a 70% bet.

If I consider that villian has 12 flush combos on his range, how many other combos will the villian need to have in order to break even?

Thank you very much for your help

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11-10-2022 , 09:58 AM

Bob148

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 12,071

11.5/(11.5 + 11.5 + 16.5) = 29% breakeven win % is (almost, there are decimals meh) identical to the % of opponents range u need to beat.

If Bluffs/(flushes + bluffs) is greater than 29% u can call for profit.

12 Flushes = 71% of total range at breakeven frequency.

So we do:

12 = x * .71

Divide both sides by .71 to move the .71 to other side of equation.

12/.71 = x

12/.71 = 16.9

X = total range combos = 16.9 at breakeven bluff frequency 29%

X - 12 flushes = bluffs = 4.9 bluffs.

This is all non strategic.

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11-10-2022 , 10:02 AM

amarri

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 398

Huh ? your question is very unclear.
1st of all How does he have 12 combos ?
there are 13 of any suit and here you have 3 on the board leaving 10 remaining spades
you are losing to QJ since you hold a J there are 12 remaining combos of QJ you are also losing to any flush

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11-10-2022 , 10:07 AM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by amarri

Huh ? your question is very unclear.
1st of all How does he have 12 combos ?

I'm going to assume that he's either:

a) used the previous action to narrow down villain's range, and only 12 possible sets of cards make a flush, or
b) as it's BQ, he's made it up

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11-10-2022 , 04:51 PM

aeh7ES

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 31

That was a fenomenal answer, I was way off on my calculations 😅😅😅😅

Thank you very much for your help.

Regarding the question of where those 12 combos come from, here is a visual:

Cheers 😊😊😊

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