Math question - Beginning Poker Questions

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08-06-2011 , 10:01 AM

Ten shin zaga

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 1,563

How do I calculate the % the guy on the bb needs to fold acording to my raise size in bbs? Like I raise 2.5x on the SB and how much do the guy on the BB need to fold knowing he will never call for it to be profitable. What if I 3x instead? And what if I am on the BTN?

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08-06-2011 , 10:45 AM

Cry Me A River

Orange is the new Green

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,783

In general,

EV=Amount you win*How often you win-Amount you lose*How often you lose

If you're raising 2.5bb on the button to win 1.5bb then:

EV=1.5*Player folds-2.5*(100-Player folds)
EV=1.5*Player folds-250+2.5*Player Fold
EV=4*Player Folds-250

Break-even is when EV=0 so,

0=4*Player Folds - 250
4*Player Folds=250
Player Folds=62.5

So if you raise 2.5bb from the button to steal you need to succeed 62.5% of the time to be profitable in and of itself (ie; ignoring whatever happens postflop).

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08-06-2011 , 10:49 AM

Ten shin zaga

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 1,563

Yeah, thanks a lot CMR. But in the SB to raise 2.5x I only need to put more 2bbs.

Ex: Blinds 10/20, I'm on the SB so those 10 are not mine anymore so I'm only 2x to win 1.5 right?

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08-06-2011 , 11:36 AM

Cry Me A River

Orange is the new Green

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 23,783

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Originally Posted by Ten shin zaga

How do I calculate the %

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Originally Posted by Cry Me A River

If you're raising 2.5bb on the button

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Originally Posted by Ten shin zaga

so I'm only 2x to win 1.5 right?

Yes.

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