The math involved in stealing from the SB.... - Beginning Poker Questions

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The math involved in stealing from the SB....

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10-07-2008 , 04:38 PM

Damani311

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 1,568

My numbers are not right here.

I think I have the best hand in this situation, so what's the move? Raising it to 3x BB is too small b/c it gives him 2:1 with position, so he is calling alot.

Raising to 4x seems to be the right amount, but won't betting $1 to win .25 catch up to me in the long run? How often do you put in a bet here?

I am never limping.

Also wtf do you do when this happens, let it go right then and there?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($11.35)
CO ($5)
Button ($30.35)
Hero ($29.80)
BB ($31)
UTG ($26.60)
UTG+1 ($31.35)
MP1 ($25.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[

], 8[

].
6 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB raises to $2.25, Hero ?

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10-07-2008 , 04:47 PM

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 25,234

When folded to me in the sb I would usually raise K8o to 3xBB (probably like 95% of the time this is what I do). I'd usually fold here to his reraise.

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10-07-2008 , 05:15 PM

Shick

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,314

Yeah, not much you can do in that spot. You don't really want to call with K8o. If you think he thinks you're stealing and he's restealing, then 4bet, but I wouldn't do that very often and not without a soul read. Just let it go.

If villain is 3betting a lot, you can lower your raise to 2.5x or 3x. This way you will not be risking as much when he 3bets and you have to fold. You will also have more chips to 4bet when the situation is right for it.

Edit: I think stealing with a 3x raise is fine. You'll usually fold out just as much of their range with 3x or 4x, imo. You can bump it up to 3.5x too.

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10-07-2008 , 05:21 PM

carsant

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 91

I don't like to steal loose from the SB; first of all, its painfully obvious. If the table folds to the SB, the BB expects you to try to steal. So he's way more likely to three bet you. If you try to flat him, you will be OOP for the hand. Also, the BB will be way more likely to flat you, knowing that you're probably raising a very broad range, and he will have position on you.

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10-07-2008 , 05:36 PM

321FoldIt

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 992

If you really think you have the best hand then 4bet or shove for value. If not just fold. If you think you can outplay him postflop OOP (like you have a huge edge on him) then you can call.

4x seems too much. 3x will get just as many folds I think. You basically want them to fold 72 and J3 which tight players will fold with 3x or even 2x. Just see how your opponent plays.

4x means you're putting in $1 to win $.25 so if you are successful 4x and fail 1 time, you break even. Even if the steal fails, you can still play postflop but you'll be OOP with most likely a marginal hand.

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10-07-2008 , 05:47 PM

HeWhoRoams

adept

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,042

If I'm going for a steal, 3x works. Sometimes i hit up a little over 3x, like /85 at 25NL or something similar.
I think 4x isn't a good +ev over the long term, but all of that depends on your opponents foldability.

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10-11-2008 , 01:00 PM

Damani311

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 1,568

for the record 3x isn't cutting it for me

everytime i open from CU/BTN/SB for 3x i get called at least 1/3 of the time, which is 3x more than when i open for $1.00

Hell even I'M calling people's 3x LP opens:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($4.75)
UTG+1 ($5)
MP1 ($22.75)
MP2 ($18.85)
MP3 ($13.45)
CO ($11.40)
Button ($24.45)
SB ($24.75)
Hero ($50.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[

], A[

].
7 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50.

Flop: ($1.50) Q[

], T[

], J[

] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, SB folds.

Final Pot: $2.25

Cost him the pot!

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10-11-2008 , 01:01 PM

Damani311

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 1,568

I guess I'm just going to create a betpot script that will bet the pot for me on stars, since 4x is too much and 3x is too small..

And for the record I'm completely giving myself away by betting 4x with AQ+/22+, and 3x with just about everything else.

I mean really how could you open for 3x with QQ from the SB? -_-

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10-11-2008 , 01:56 PM

Shick

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,314

4x isn't necessarily too much. It really depends on your opponent. If you have an opponent that is going to defend a lot by 3betting, or he likes to flat and check-raise bluff the flop a lot, then yeah, you should lower your raise size and maybe tighten up your stealing hands.

But if you're opponent is going to play fit or fold a lot on the flop, you want him to call, and you want him to call a large raise.

As far as opening for 3x with QQ, well, if you've been opening every other hand for 3x, and then you come out swinging with 4x or 4.5x...unless your opponents are just oblivious they'll probably just give you their blind.

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10-11-2008 , 02:19 PM

#10

I vi ii V7

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,998

My thoughts on stealing from the SB:

- Raise to 4x
- Do it until they play back
- Do it again next time; they might have just picked up a big hand
- If solid TAGs start regularly playing back, start LRR air
- Don't make a habit of always stealing or LRR against solid regulars; they will have position and can make your life hell if you're not careful and selective about stealing

good luck

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10-11-2008 , 06:36 PM

#11

OziBattler

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 14,707

Quote:

Raising to 4x seems to be the right amount, but won't betting $1 to win .25 catch up to me in the long run?

to be a bit nitty, the 10c you already put into the pot for NL25 w 10c/25c blinds isnt yours anymore so if you raise to $1 you are VPIPing 90c to win 35c.

its okay to vary it based on who is in the BB. If you notice a certain (eg tight) player folds to 3x then do 3x. Against an unknown ill pop it 4x the first couple of times and if that works i might 3x.

i suppose at limits where SB is < 1/2 the BB you may want to steal less since theres less reward for greater risk but for me who the BB is, what my image is, whether ive been caught with my hand in the cookie jar recently and other factors are what i think more about before i steal steal steal.

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