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02-15-2010 , 12:05 AM

SCGamblers

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 22

I play Rush $10 NL 9 handed. I have been told that this graph is not normal? Am I extremely lucky or is this a standard graph?

Last edited by SCGamblers; 02-15-2010 at 12:18 AM.

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02-15-2010 , 12:08 AM

SCGamblers

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 22

http://www.flickr.com/photos/47448360@N08/4358492596/

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02-15-2010 , 12:08 AM

ILoveMyBum

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 914

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCGamblers

I play Rush $10 NL 9 handed. I have been told that this graph is not normal? Am I extremely lucky or is this a standard graph?

I can't see the graph

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02-15-2010 , 12:11 AM

rockchucker8

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,660

i dont think ive seen a graph with someone's all in ev that much higher than profits. truly ridiculous.

so yeah, this is definitely not normal to answer your question lol

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02-15-2010 , 12:12 AM

SCGamblers

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 22

insert image doesn't work for me, the link works but nothing appears in my post.

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02-15-2010 , 12:14 AM

curveballs

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 546

pass some of that luck over here y0

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02-15-2010 , 12:16 AM

ILoveMyBum

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 914

it just shows up as a red x on my computer...is there anyway to see it?

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02-15-2010 , 12:27 AM

SaM StarK

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,384

More like luckiest mother****er alive

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02-15-2010 , 12:34 AM

starscream1101

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 4,908

Quit playing now. Your gonna kill yourself when ev balances.

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02-15-2010 , 12:56 AM

#10

otatop

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 12,721

BBV is thataway ->

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02-15-2010 , 01:10 AM

#11

SCGamblers

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 22

So based off this graph and what seems to be the common consensus; I have been playing terrible, been extremely lucky, and if I don't plug many major leaks in my game I will eventually go busto?

My friend thought it was impossible for someone to run so many buy ins over EV over a decent sample size. He explained to me that based on this graph I am consistently getting it in bad but still somehow managing to get lucky and suckout. I honestly thought it was quite the opposite, I thought I was running bad.... Is there any stats/graphs/summaries that I could create/generate on PT3 to dig deeper into this?

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02-15-2010 , 01:13 AM

#12

Mr. Giblet

adept

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 708

THis makes sense.

You are simply balancing the unequality of things. I lose more often then i should, you win more often.

Nothing FIXED or rigged yes?

Surely there is nothing queer going on with their computer programs or software.

And yet, suggest funny business and be set upon by wolves of defense.

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02-15-2010 , 01:26 AM

#13

andyg2001

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,905

Im running about 13 buy ins below EV. Has been 15 below EV. about 34k hands on rush.

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02-15-2010 , 01:32 AM

#14

mortein

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by starscream1101

Quit playing now. Your gonna kill yourself when ev balances.

EV won't balance out, he'll just lose hard and won't know why.

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02-15-2010 , 01:58 AM

#15

zmaniac17

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 274

My understanding of expected value isn't very good. If he's running above EV could this mean that his opponents are playing sub par? Or does it only mean that he's getting lucky?

If anyone could direct me toward a good not to math intensive explanation of expected value that would be awesome.

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02-15-2010 , 02:31 AM

#16

andyg2001

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by zmaniac17

We are talking about all in EV. The only reason you run above or below it is luck.

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02-15-2010 , 02:39 AM

#17

unbjames

adept

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,199

that last part of the graph is the calm before variance bites you square in the ass ... get out while you can

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02-15-2010 , 03:22 AM

#18

zmaniac17

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 274

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyg2001

We are talking about all in EV. The only reason you run above or below it is luck.

Details plz...

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02-15-2010 , 04:03 AM

#19

SmokeyS

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 449

ok, lets say you win when you get it all in with kk and run into aa, that puts you above your ev line.

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02-15-2010 , 04:33 AM

#20

zmaniac17

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 274

So will the graph only represent hands that you showdown with?

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02-15-2010 , 05:06 AM

#21

Sentinel

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 58

In the end it will even out.

Maybe you can read this: http://www.tworags.com/article_23.ht...089ced5f4df23f

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02-15-2010 , 06:17 AM

#22

Green_29

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,037

This thread demonstrates perfectly just how much 99% of players have no clue about variance whatsoever. OP is running pretty good, he's not running like god. Go and play around with some variance simulators and you will see that running ~4bb/100 over EV over 80k hands is not that rare at all.

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02-15-2010 , 11:06 AM

#23

SmokeyS

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 449

$10 says op has sucked out on every one of us here

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02-15-2010 , 11:38 AM

#24

Masq

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 15,132

Quote:

Originally Posted by SmokeyS

ok, lets say you win when you get it all in with kk and run into aa, that puts you above your ev line.

If you have AA and run into KK and your AA holds you also run above EV. Your AA is likely to win ~80% of the time. So you're entitled to win 80% of the pot. When it holds you get 100% of the pot, running 20% above EV.