Knowing when to fold AA post flop
10-21-2010
, 04:13 AM
I think one of my biggest leaks is not being able to fold AA preflop. Is the following hand a good example of when you should?
Villian is pretty lag 48/33/3/ over ~50 hands
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($20.67)
BB ($4.57)
UTG ($13.28)
Hero ($10.05)
UTG+2 ($10)
MP1 ($3.50)
MP2 ($2.94)
CO ($9.14)
BTN ($13.29)
Dealt to Hero A
A
fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $1.10, fold, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $2.90
FLOP ($8.10) J
T Q
SB bets $5.50,
Villian is pretty lag 48/33/3/ over ~50 hands
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($20.67)
BB ($4.57)
UTG ($13.28)
Hero ($10.05)
UTG+2 ($10)
MP1 ($3.50)
MP2 ($2.94)
CO ($9.14)
BTN ($13.29)
Dealt to Hero A
A fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $1.10, fold, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $2.90
FLOP ($8.10) J
T Q SB bets $5.50,
10-21-2010
, 05:54 AM
Even vs JJ+, AK you have ~30% equity. I would shove here too. Only if you're 100% sure that he wouldnt bet KK here. Then it's a fold. But .... nah.
10-21-2010
, 06:53 PM
Yeah I meant to say not being able to fold AA postflop in the OP
oooops.
He was a total lag-fish. I could see him calling a 4-bet pre here with 99+, AQ+
I would see him as likely 5-bet shoving QQ+ pre.
oooops.
Quote:
This is a very interesting situation and as you probably know it really depends on the 5-bet range that you give villain.
What makes it so interesting is that if you put him on QQ+ then you have 57% equity. But if you put him on JJ+ then you are slightly behind on 49%.
However, if you include AK+ in his range then your post-flop equity really drops off.
Given that he is in SB and you are holding two of the aces AK+ seems unlikely. Probably is QQ+ or even KK.
With QQ+ and your 57% equity you have the following:
(57% x 13.60) - (47% x 5.5) = 7.75 - 2.58 = +$5.17
(I think)
What makes it so interesting is that if you put him on QQ+ then you have 57% equity. But if you put him on JJ+ then you are slightly behind on 49%.
However, if you include AK+ in his range then your post-flop equity really drops off.
Given that he is in SB and you are holding two of the aces AK+ seems unlikely. Probably is QQ+ or even KK.
With QQ+ and your 57% equity you have the following:
(57% x 13.60) - (47% x 5.5) = 7.75 - 2.58 = +$5.17
(I think)
I would see him as likely 5-bet shoving QQ+ pre.
Last edited by CandyKreep; 10-21-2010 at 06:59 PM.
10-25-2010
, 06:50 PM
10-25-2010
, 06:51 PM
10-26-2010
, 12:43 AM
10-26-2010
, 01:00 AM
I bet your GREAT at reading hands
