villain is 0/100 after 1 hand, must be calling with 100% of hands.

Ohh wait, that's ****ing stupid.

To go off stats we must understand what they actually mean.

So the argument you all should be making is what's the point of having a HUD if you're not going to bother understanding how to utilise the information it gives you in anything but a completely basic (& probably wrong) way.

QFT!

I see people all the time say "What stats do I need to have in my hud?" Nobody ever answers that question with "You should have the stats that you have an understanding of."

If you don't understand what a hud stat means, how that stat relates to other stats in terms of determining a range, and at least some idea of what kind of sample size is necessary for that stat to be useful at all... then why bother putting the stat on the hud at all?

/rant

I guess the VPIP/PFR already converged around 200 hands, and his true VPIP/PFR might be pretty close to what I have. Am I right?

3bet/4bet stats are no close to convergence, but cold 4betting there is pretty strong (because I assume he is not doing squeezing in that scenario), and we know that he is a fairly tight vill (if we assume that my hud tell me something close to his real vpip/pfr). That's why I decided to fold, his range is mostly KK/AA, becuase I don't think he is even doing that with QQ, and there is only one KK combo left.

btw, Crushing The Microstakes says that VPIP/PFR converge @+20 hands, AF/3bet/fold to 3bet/Flop Cbet/Fold to flop CBet @+100 hands. I don't think that's accurate, any good source on sample size needed, sdv, etc..?

@thoughtsymmetry, I'm sure you should be able to work out a stdev for those stats and thus a confidence interval.

asked this question in the FR regs thread but it hasn't been answered yet and I really need to know.

Anyone from UK/Canada here changed their DNS settings to get the US netflix? I don't suppose that in doing so would make stars believe you're in the US or whatever?

I use Blockless and have done for the past year or so. I've had no problems, I think the main thing is that my ISP is still in the same place as my address.

Okay, thanks!

Question:
If i play very straight-forward style, waiting for good hands and value betting strong hands, only picking most simple spots to bluff in 10nl blaze poker (no hud), am i playing GTO style?
I believe this is the correct way to play until i find further leaks from my opponents. I sometimes double barrel vs unknowns, esp. when flush completes and start steaming a bit when i don't win the hand. So i think it would be better to just play very straight-forward.

No one knows what GTO looks like for one and you almost definitely aren't playing close to it. You're playing a basic way which exploits the average fish.

I am quite confused about this GTO stuff, what is exploitable, how does balancing differ from gto etc.
Probably need to put some thought into it.

GTO is by definition a strategy in a zero-sum game which cannot have an EV of <0 against any other strategy.

100nl not fun. I mean do i really have to barrel this every time i hit it? :P
wtf

OnGame - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $98.36 (VPIP: 33.09, PFR: 23.63, 3Bet Preflop: 9.42, Hands: 553)
CO: $89.65 (VPIP: 37.93, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
BTN: $119.75 (VPIP: 53.42, PFR: 15.07, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 74)
Hero (SB): $132.47

Hero posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has 8 K

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, BB calls $2.00

Flop: ($6.00, 2 players) K 8 K
Hero bets $3.00, BB calls $3.00

Turn: ($12.00, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($12.00, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, BB checks

Hero shows 8 K (Full House, Kings full of Eights)
Hero wins $11.40

41% pot odds after rake. std call?

partypoker - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $100.00 (VPIP: 7.41, PFR: 7.41, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 27)
CO: $108.46 (VPIP: 42.11, PFR: 34.21, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 39)
BTN: $106.13 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: $62.70 (VPIP: 30.61, PFR: 20.41, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 50)
BB: $14.44 (VPIP: 47.37, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 19)
Hero (UTG): $252.90

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has A J

Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $14.44 and is all-in, Hero calls $11.44

Flop: ($29.38, 2 players) 6 K Q

Turn: ($29.38, 2 players) J

River: ($29.38, 2 players) 3

Hero shows A J (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 45%, Flop 42%, Turn 95%)
BB mucks 7 7 (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 55%, Flop 58%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins $27.92

Live tournament, blinds are just starting to get deeper, with M of about 6. UTG limps, CO raises to 3bb. You have KTo on the BTN. Everyone has you covered but UTG and CO only by a litle.

UTG and CO have been playing kinda LAGGY while you've been playing fairly tight.

What's your action? Why?

wow. grats tankz on moving up so rapidly.

Thanks. Bankroll wise i should be playing 50nl, but i enjoy playing the donks i find at 100nl + i can learn from the regs.

lol deep ante

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $116.47 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 19, 3B: 10, 4B:20, AF: 3.1, Hands: 514
UTG: $119.78 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 2.0, Hands: 171
MP: $126.86 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 2.3, Hands: 369
CO: $130.86 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 17, AF: 3.4, Hands: 352
BTN: $96.49 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 22, 3B: 7, AF: 1.6, Hands: 1700
Hero (SB): $125.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Q A
1 fold, MP raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5, BB raises to $14, 1 fold, Hero raises to $25, BB calls $11

Flop: ($51.50) 7 4 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $17.89, BB calls $17.89

Turn: ($87.28) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $82.01, BB folds

How many BBs is an M of 6? I presume somewhere around 15bbs?

Folding for me, you have to get through all the blinds and UTG could be limping pairs/broadway which you aren't in good shape against plus COs probably has at least something decent to be isolating limper.

It's also affected by UTG and CO's stacks.

Would you guys open A5o from CO on nitty table like this? Or should we rather just increase the amount of suited connectors we open?
A5o doesn't really flop anything decent. If we flop GS, 23x 34x 24x there's a good chance our opponent might peel with AT+, meaning our turned ace is no good. Pair of 5 is not great either.

Microgaming - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: €113.54 (VPIP: 26.37, PFR: 23.19, 3Bet Preflop: 9.13, Hands: 579)
MP: €45.43 (VPIP: 56.41, PFR: 11.97, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 119)
Hero (CO): €98.42
BTN: €183.27 (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
SB: €100.00 (VPIP: 27.69, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 67)
BB: €155.25 (VPIP: 20.38, PFR: 14.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.88, Hands: 269)

SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.75) Hero has A 5

fold, fold, Hero raises to €1.25, fold, fold, fold

Table doesn't look that nitty to me?? only btn really.

By 50nl standards BB is a nit. I think it's sample size issue, but he may only 3-bet QQ+ AK.

I don´t play 50 so idk dinamics there but even when hand not have great postflop value having nit on blinds should be even better to steal wider no?

I mean it depends how aggresive are villains to defend blinds, FtoS, fcb´s, AF, etc, but from stats posted probably be more worried on sb that could fight back or flat than BB.
Also looking on BTN stats so far i think our CO opens can be little wider like if we where on BTN.

However, all 3 villains are deep, so we just need to becareful if they start fighting back to modify our range, but until then i think is fine if we take it just like a steal.

always end up doing stupid **** like this wtf. villain was tagged as fish, he made some line like min 3b 20x overbet flop. can't xc river obv.
I don't even know if this is a tilting hand or not. so ****ing mad anyways. I'll post graph later once i have grinded points, you'll see why.

partypoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $24.16 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: $50.00 (VPIP: 23.73, PFR: 13.56, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 62)
Hero (BB): $53.14
UTG: $100.51 (VPIP: 14.89, PFR: 1.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 94)
MP: $89.93 (VPIP: 12.35, PFR: 9.88, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 82)
CO: $74.59 (VPIP: 36.00, PFR: 28.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 26)

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K K

UTG raises to $1.00, fold, CO calls $1.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.50, UTG calls $4.50, CO calls $4.50

Flop: ($16.75, 3 players) 6 4 A
Hero bets $7.00, fold, CO calls $7.00

Turn: ($30.75, 2 players) A
Hero bets $14.61, CO calls $14.61

River: ($59.97, 2 players) 8
Hero bets $26.03 and is all-in, CO calls $26.03

Hero shows K K (Two Pair, Aces and Kings) (Pre 68%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
CO shows J A (Three of a Kind, Aces) (Pre 32%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
CO wins $109.03

how to not play AA. i think river bet is reasonable value bet vs 99-88 as he really should not check anything valuable OTT

partypoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $51.39
SB: $51.61 (VPIP: 27.06, PFR: 18.62, 3Bet Preflop: 7.84, Hands: 383)
BB: $84.65 (VPIP: 13.48, PFR: 11.24, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 90)
UTG: $14.02 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: $53.07 (VPIP: 17.74, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.59, Hands: 188)
CO: $138.78 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has J J

fold, MP raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($6.25, 4 players) 7 T 4
BB checks, MP bets $3.50, fold, Hero calls $3.50, fold

Turn: ($13.25, 2 players) 5
MP checks, Hero bets $7.00, MP calls $7.00

River: ($27.25, 2 players) T
MP checks, Hero bets $8.00, MP calls $8.00

Hero shows J J (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens) (Pre 19%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
MP shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Tens) (Pre 81%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
MP wins $41.09

well vs button clicking fish...

partypoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $66.68
SB: $33.12 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
BB: $31.45
UTG: $50.00 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 15.65, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 117)
MP: $50.25 (VPIP: 24.87, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 193)
CO: $65.18 (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 16)

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has T T

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.00, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3.00, 3 players) 9 2 7
SB bets $1.00, fold, Hero raises to $4.00, SB raises to $7.00, Hero raises to $65.68 and is all-in, SB calls $25.12 and is all-in

Turn: ($67.24, 2 players) 3

River: ($67.24, 2 players) 6

Sorry for the venting earlier. Posted that when i lost almost 200€ in few minutes (red line in the graph). Played solid, solid and then boom 200€ down :P
I get really mad at myself for making stupid mistakes, i'm still unsure about the KK hand vs a guy i have read on as fish. I think being a bit rough on yourself is ok attitude in poker. I didn't get mad at this fish for playing like he did, that's something i can't change.
Long grind to get cashback bonus on the last day of Party summer sale.

KK hand is awful in case you were worried about it not being so.