Hello, new player. I used to play back in 2008-2012, was a small winner at the micros and at some point got bored and quit.
Now I'm again at the micros, currently playing 5€ NL, 15k hands so far.

This will be a long post and I don't even know what to ask here, because I don't know what's happening.

I think I have a solid grasp of the basic skills needed to be profitable at this level and I think I have a decent preflop game. I'm aware about some leaks, especially in the blinds. Also, not 3-betting enough. And probably there are many more leaks I'm not aware of.
This is me:



I guess it looks decent enough for a beginner. Not spectacular but not terrible.

This is me until february 22. I realize I'm running way above EV, but I delivered only 2 major suck-outs. Except those 2 hands, I never went all-in at less than 79%. Still, I know how it works and I know it won't always be like this. I also know it will even out in the end. This isn't the issue.



But this is also me, since february 23.



Now, there is an impressive series of massive suck-outs in this sample, but this isn't the point. It evens out with the run-good I've had in the first 10k hands. And there are also 3 big pots which I've played like a monumental ******o. If there are 3 or 4 diamonds on the board and a terrible villain is suddenly super-aggressive, my set is no good.

With this out of the way, these are the before and after stats.

Until february 22:



Since february 23:




So it's not like I suddenly forgot my very basic knowledge about the microstakes.
I know this is getting too long, but I'm getting very discouraged by a specific negative trend. It's not about the bad beats or about those 3-4 big pots I've played like an idiot.

It's about feeling completely "board dead". I play my usual hands. I open more in position. I don't spaz out preflop. But I can't ****ing connect anything.

This is a selection of hands I tagged in the first part of today's session:




I have dozens of hands like this in the last 5k hands. Suited connectors, pocket pairs, broadways, good hands that need to actually hit something on the flop to win. It feels like I'm not getting any action at all when I'm strong and way too much action when I'm weak.

It's been like this for the last 5500 hands. In this sample I've won 6 big pots (85+ bb) and 10 pots between 40bb and 85bb.
On the other side, I'm constantly hemorrhaging small pots of 4-15 bb because I can't ****ing connect anything and when I try to take down a pot after a round of checks, I suddenly face aggression and have to fold.

It's frustrating. I'm perfectly aware I'm not a good player, but I'm also aware that a table like this should be a ****ing ATM machine.



But no, I can't win a big hand worth a damn.

I suppose this is where I should be asking questions, but I don't really know what to ask.

Do you see any massive leaks in my stats?
Is being "board dead" a thing?
Should I just keep going with my game until things start going well again?

I only looked at two stats, quantity of hands before (10k) and quantity after (5k).

For some, that’s a just a few days of play and it seems that is also true for you. I wouldn’t be too concerned about your win rate and trending until you get to about 50k hands, and use the to-date data as an initial indication of where there might be leaks or other influencing factors.

An obvious one is the start of the downward trend. Was there any significant change at that point such as stakes, venue, strategy, number of tables, etc.? GL

Nope, always 5NL, always 2 tables. I moved from 888poker.it to pokerstars.it because 888 is garbage for various reasons, but the downtrend already started on 888. In any case, they play the same. There's the usual assortment of stations, maniacs and uber-nits, so no major differences there.

From hand 5k I started increasing my 3-bet rate, but I've been very cautious and very gradual. It was like 4 and I realized it may work at 5NL, but would be extremely exploitable at higher levels. But it went from 4 at hand 5000 to 6 at hand 15000, so it's not like I'm suddenly spazzing out with A4o.

Also, at hand 5k (when I first gave a serious look at my stats), my fold to steal was WAY too high (something like 82), so I put some effort there. It's now 76 so, once again, very slow and gradual process.

I don't know, the initial plan was to play 20k hands at 5NL before moving up, but I guess I will play at least 50k.

The main thing that stands out to me is that your flop cbet seems very low in SRP, although it would be useful to distinguish what it is IP vs OOP. Turn cbet also seems quite low, especially from later positions. Hard to say more without looking deeper, but that might be a starting point to look at.

These are the stats for the hands I raised first. Didn't find how to filter out the hands when I faced a 3-bet.



Flop cbet has always been low, labeled as "potential problem" in the leaktracker. And I agree, it's probably a big problem right now. The current feeling is, what used to work in the first 10k hands now isn't working anymore. A flop c-bet against weak stations was often good to take down a pot. Now it's not. When I'm weak I get aggression, when I'm strong everyone suddenly discovers the fold button.

Yesterday's session: 1157 hands. I won a 95bb pot, a 66bb pot, 12 pots between 15 and 30bb, everything else was lower. It feels like an absolute struggle to get some money in when I'm ahead. And from the stats I think it's pretty clear I'm not barreling like a maniac.
It's not about the big pots or the bad beats. It's this constant trickle of small and medium pots that used to be easy wins or easy folds and now are just a pain in the ass.

You are very tight and relatively passive.

"what used to work in the first 10k hands now isn't working anymore"

I'd be careful with this kind of thinking over small samples. Remember also that within your small sample, the times you had the opportunity to cbet, for example, will be much less than your overall hands (most of the time you're just folding pre). You should be looking to change your strategy based on off the table study, rather than small samples of feedback on the tables. If you zoom out, I think it's highly unlikely your pool is overagressing.

And from the stats I think it's pretty clear I'm not barreling like a maniac

Yes, I'd say you're not barrelling enough.

It's this constant trickle of small and medium pots that used to be easy wins or easy folds

Probably a symptom of your passiveness on flops and turns. You're giving up the pot too easily. You can study these spots in a trainer, which I think is a pretty fun way of doing it, like DTO or GTO Wizard.

Ok, I will look into some more training material. First 100 hands today and I already see where this is going.

20ish hands on this villain. Nothing out of line, 31/27.


30-something hands on villain. Again, nothing stands out in particular. 24/21.


3-4 spots like this and 1 buy-in is gone without even noticing it.
It feels like I'm always getting money into the pot in the wrong spots. Then I lose confidence, tighten up and it becomes even more of a struggle.

EDIT: thanks for the tips. About the sample size, I will play no less than 50k hands at this level, even if I turn it around and start winning again at 20k hands.
And I'll need to get some good postflop material. Kinda bummed by being unable to extract money from 60/10 idiots, but it is what it is.

In this hand I was wondering if I should fire a second barrel on the turn:
SB is 27/14 over 30 hands, BB is unknown with 6 hands.

PokerStars - €0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 101.4 BB
CO: 134.4 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 124.4 BB
BB: 80.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, BTN calls 4 BB, SB calls 3.6 BB, BB calls 3 BB

Flop: (16 BB, 4 players) Q 5 J
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 12.6 BB, fold, SB calls 12.6 BB, BB calls 12.6 BB

Turn: (53.8 BB, 3 players) Q
SB checks, BB checks, Hero?

this IS variance.

it feels like you're being exploited, but you aren't. 99.9% of people are just playing their cards, and they happen to be setup in a way that makes you feel like the universe is against you. I play multiple matches where i just 3bet fold 10x in a row. It happens. Or someone barrels into me LITERALLY 10x in a row, and they always ACTUALLY have the ~nuts (ask me how i know).


The lesson is (and i cant stress this enough from tons of volume & experience) : EAT it. Do the right play based upon your cards/ the board. The amt of money you're losing is miniscule compared to how much you will lose if you start trying to make things happen/swim against the current.

also - your 56% won showdown stat is INSANELY high to me
mine borders on 50%

its within context of your WTSD, and i forget whats normal for 6m.. but you either need to value bet/stab/call WAAAAAAAAY more rivers, or you're running really hot.
i'd get that checked out if i were you

Yes, WSD is high and WTSD is low-ish.
I posted my stats after 20k hands in the stats thread a few days ago. I think I'm a bit too tight in general and a bit too passive on the flop. WWSF is also low, so it means I probably give up pots too easily.
So when I arrive at the river, I'm usually strong.
At least this is what I think.

Check. Keep their bluffs in. Re-evaluate OTR.

your cbet on button is kind of insanely low. WWSF also very low, which is related. flop cbet v wide ranges is your money printer ip. you need to up your aggression 2-3 fold here.