I assume it's just variance ( winning when raising 22-66 in ep loseing when raising 22-66 in mp - Beginning Poker Questions

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Beginners and General Questions

I assume it's just variance ( winning when raising 22-66 in ep loseing when raising 22-66 in mp

Post Reply Subscribe

...

02-21-2012 , 06:48 PM

grumpy64

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,621

My sample size in ep is 78 and mp is 67. In ep i'm making .33bb/100 in mp i'm losing 2.56/100. I think it's just variance but was wondering if it could be something that i'm over looking.

Quote

02-21-2012 , 07:03 PM

Mr Beer

banned

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 5,965

Sounds like it to me. You need a pretty big sample to bring out mean returns on a speculative hand...I would be surprised if less than 50K hands is reliable.

Quote

02-21-2012 , 07:03 PM

lowanizer

adept

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 758

You mean you played 67 hands from mp and you worrying about your win rate from there?

Quote

02-21-2012 , 07:08 PM

Dunna100

Accept No Substitute

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 6,168

I think op means he played 22-66 that many times from those positions, not total hands.

Op, for a long time I was losing money with KK, it all works out in the end tho. Still very far behind EV with AA actually!

Quote

02-21-2012 , 08:10 PM

Suzukishosan

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,303

dunno, you could be playing them badly or it could be variance or a bit of both

Quote

02-22-2012 , 06:15 AM

BlackRain

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,040

Your winrate with any hand from MP is always going to be a little bit better than the same hand from EP because you will have the benefit of position more of the time. So yes, definitely variance.

Quote

02-22-2012 , 07:55 AM

quadas

adept

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 973

Over this sample size it is enough to lose a stack once with a set to a better hand to bring your MP winrate down -1.5bb/100. If this has happened twice in those 67 hands, this accounts for the low winrate and the remaining 65 hands are playing just as good as the EP pocket pairs.

It's also possible that you simply flopped more sets in EP than MP. The only pocket pair I'm losing money with is 22, probably because I've only hit 4 sets in 88 flops with that hand.

Quote

02-22-2012 , 10:28 AM

ArtySmokes

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,999

Over a larger sample you'd be expected to win more in later positions.
If you have HEM, add the "flopped Set %" stat to your Reports>Position page, and that should give a good indication of why your results are unexpected so far.

Quote

02-22-2012 , 04:17 PM

MidnightToker

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 624

Quote:

Originally Posted by grumpy64

My sample size in ep is 78 and mp is 67.

That's not a sample, that's an anecdote.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...