I am a weekend poker player but play more over the summer months. I have been keeping a spreadsheet on my results since I started getting serious about it. I play in Arizona, so there is no NO-LIMIT. I play in a 3-300 or 5-500 game. The 300 and 500 are the CAP on the size of a bet on any one bet. About 80% of my results are from the 500 game and 20% from the 300 game. Since Feb. 2nd of 2018, I have logged 320.75 hours, averaging 5.011 hours per session. I consider myself a decent player- I have been reading and learning about HOLD'EM poker since 2004, however my results have not been good so far. Over this time, I have bought in for a total of $71,935. Of this amount, I am currently negative $13,112. Most new businesses start out losing money over the first couple of years and I consider this endeavor a new business. Considering I have 320 hours logged- do I need more time to see how this plays out? Like everyone else, I have suffered some brutal beats in very large pots, especially recently. Is this a normal amount of variance in total dollar amounts? Or should I consider not investing any more $ and trying something else?

Most likely you are not on a downswing, you are just a losing player. Try practicing online at microstakes for a few hundred thousand hands first.

Down $13K in 321 hours equals losing $40 an hour.

I don't consider you a decent player. You may be a learning player...but to me.... losing $40 an hour would make me think twice about playing any more until I actually learn how to play. Your results are not just bad luck/variance.

If you can play online, I suggest that route. Start at the $2 tables....meaning your 100bb buyin is only $2.00 Time to learn at a cheaper rate of loss.

GL

If you're torching that much in a live game then you're either not a good player or victim of a very unlikely downswing. You're probably not beating that game.

I suspect you have taken some bad beats, but you also probably have a lot of leaks in your game that need plugging. You say most businesses start out losing, but I think the real analogy is that most businesses (like most poker players) just flat out fail. Most players start out losing, and most continue to lose or just quit. Up to you whether you want to change. If you have disposable income that you can afford to lose, you probably don't need to change much. The rest of us will continue to appreciate your patronage.

If you want to improve, try reading a book or two on poker. Also, read the stickies in this and other forums here.

Gl!

I agree with you all that the lose rate is pretty unacceptable. But I am still willing to consider small sample size. 320 hours is equivalent to 8 40hr. weeks in the real world. That is not even 1 Quarter of results. Haven't you all had a bad quarter like this? I am optimistic, so maybe my bad quarter happens to be my first quarter? Living in AZ, I also can't play online, so this is the smallest I can play for real money.

I have never lost anywhere near this much money playing poker. Ever. My biggest downswing was around $3k over two months at 1/3 NL playing hundreds of hours a month. That's $1,500 a month. And this was when I was playing my worst poker of my entire poker "career" in some of the toughest games around (Vegas). I recognize I was playing poorly then. I play well now and consistently win at 2/5.

People are telling you what you don't want to hear: you gotta work on your game, bro.

Sample size would be too small to draw any conclusions about your winrate and the range of uncertainty would be quite big. Your results however make it very likely you are expected to lose over the next sample, just based on the amount you've lost. Maybe you should have lost or won a bit more than this, but it is very unlikely variance alone made you lose while being a winning player.

Sometimes medicine is tough to swallow. I appreciate your feedback. Thank you.

Thank you. Gotta work on my game... in a less expensive fashion.

Statistically, the chance the very negative win rate is due to chance, or as you put it, normal variance, is essentially zero.

Peter,

HERE is the forum on 2+2 that will be very useful for you. It is essentially all about the stakes (small) you play in the live casino venue you play.

I suggest you read all the posts on the first page. Open each and read the first post; ....then CLOSE the thread. What would you do with Hero's hand PF (pre-flop), OTF (on the flop), OTT (on the turn) and OTR (on the river)?

Be cognizant of Hero's position and all his bet sizing as these are factors a good player ALWAYS considers. What "reads" did the OP (original poster) give you on the opponents (Villain(s) )? What are the stack sizes of all the opponents in the hand...or still live sitting behind your position?

Now open the thread and read the rest of the analysis. If you agree with the majority about 80% of the first page threads, then we might give you a pass on "I consider myself a good player".

GL...we're here to help even if the advice isn't always wine and roses.

Not true. Look HERE. This thread is all about where you can/can't play in the USA. AZ is not listed anywhere so....you have no restrictions on using any of the US-facing sites listed in the first post.

GL

Thank you- much appreciated!, I'm giving Global Poker a try.

Again- thank you for the feedback. I will check this out I really appreciate you trying to help- I am just trying to be honest with myself and want to improve my game