These are my stats on .02/.05 on ignition after about 16K hands i know its a small sample but im trying to find leaks. Can someone help me find leaks?

The only thing that stands out to me is my BB loses. I play the exact same hands (check the VPIP) in SB and BB, but for some reason ive lost almost 100$ in the BB but 5$ bucks in the SB. What am I doing wrong in the BB?

Also, can someone help me interpret what the purple "EV" line means? what does the "EV bb/100" mean?

How do i increase my redline? Is my redline a leak?

If anyone has any suggestions or sees anything suboptimal about my stats please feel free to roast me and let me know where im going wrong!

your redline is meant to go down. how much it goes down is a different question.

unzip a lil n show us some postflop stats and a few giant hands you lost that went postflop (aka not KK v AA pre)

Take it easy, everyone loses in the BB. Actually your loss rate in the BB seems pretty reasonable to me. I think people try to aim for around -50 bb / 100. If you just folded every hand when you were the BB you would be -100 bb / 100.




So the EV line shows you the difference between your winnings and your all in EV. If it is above your net winnings you are running badly, if it is below you are running well (at least in terms of all in EV). So if you go all in with KK vs AA and win, then you get a substantial amount of negative all in EV. Conversely, if you go all in with AA vs KK and lose (or actually any hand you lose where you had any equity) your all in EV goes up.

Here's some good advise:
- Forget about the EV line
- Forget about the red line

The only line that matters at the end of the month is the green one.

There are probably hundreds of threads about EV & red line on this forum, go look those up if you need to know.
Or just believe me and accept that it doesn't matter.

Show us some RFI stats by position.
You seem to be calling too much from the BTN.
3bet is a bit low overall

If you would fold every hand on SB & BB you'd lose 50bb/100 on the SB and 100bb/100 on the BB, that's why you're losing more from the BB than from the SB.
You're probably not defending wide enough from the BB, 3bet is also too low.

Blast from the past:

The Last Redline Post You Need To Read

The good old days.. I used to look forward to these posts

Your attention should be on why you're losing $ in MP. To put it another way, as things stand if you folded every single hand you play in MP your winrate would improve. This is obviously a bad thing so you need to figure out why this position is unprofitable for you as at worst it should be $0.

It's a 2k hand sample size. You can't read into anything about the $ won/lost here unless it was extremely significant.

Why do we bother looking for any leaks in our db in that case? Almost anything can be reduced to "lolsamplesize". Just because something is not statistically significant to p<0.05 does not mean that said thing does not exist. This is not a hypothesis test, this is looking at some basic numbers and finding possible causes for problems - and based on those numbers the #1 place I'd be looking at is MP play. When I was starting out many eons ago I had similar positional numbers to OP with a loss in MP. I could have lolsamplesized it away, instead I did some digging and found I was misplaying a lot of hands OOP. Leak fixed, winrate improved.

Okay then.

No, not everything can be reduced to "lolsamplesize." Different statistics take different sample sizes to converge. When you have a small sample size you can still look at stats that converge quickly. Positional win-rate stats aren't just "not statistically significant to p<.05," they are practically meaningless and should not influence you at all regarding what you need to study. Your 70% confidence interval

Thinking you need to study MP because you're -4.36BB/100 EV over 2.5k hands is like thinking you should go to the doctor every time you sneeze.

For an example of a statistic which is actually useful over this sample, WWSF and Agg% are both low enough to be clear evidence of leaks. It would be better to study general post-flop play and look for spots OP is playing too passively or not fighting hard enough for pots than to study specific positions.

That winrate with the hands played is starting to hit the lower bound of what I would expect a 70% confidence interval to be for a slightly winning player in that position. MP should not be 0bb/100 for a winning (or break even for that matter) player so 0 is not what we build the confidence interval around, I'd be expecting the winrate in MP for a slightly winning player to be around 10bb/100'ish with a 70% CI of something like (-5, 25) for that sample size - we're starting to get close to that lower bound. Proof there's a problem? Nowhere near what could be considered proof. Practically meaningless? Again, no. Could the time be better spent elsewhere? Possibly. Now if we disagree on what an expected winrate or std dev in MP is that changes what the CI would look like.

Rounding to 2500 hands, +/- 15 from the mean implies a very low standard deviation (75 BB/100). My SD for MP is 100BB/100. My win-rate over the sample is unrealistic and I don't know what it should be, but accepting yours the confidence interval would be (-10, 30), which is very wide.

Even if we accept a 70% confidence interval of (-5, 25), you have a bottom 15% event (about 1/6) from a selection of 6 positional win-rate stats. When you consider selection bias it goes from a somewhat unlikely to a completely expected event. That's not actionable evidence.

Thanks for all the feedback so far. I see that as a possible leak in MP as well.

My thought process is that even though i might be losing in MP, my losses are far greater in SB and BB. So wouldnt it be the best to focus on the biggest first and smaller problems last?

I feel like i have a big problem in the BB because -$100 at .02/.05 is a lot lol. Theres no way its negative variance with that loss rate even with the small sample, i have to be doing something wrong.

People already explained that you're supposed to lose in the BB. My player pool's winrate in BB is -52BB/100. It's normal. Of course, you want to outperform the player pool but you aren't doing that bad considering the sample.

You probably have loads of leaks just because everyone has leaks in the BB. We just can't judge that from this sample.

BB is an important position to study anyway because it is fairly fundamentally distinct from other positions, and you play a lot of hands from there. You'll definitely benefit a lot more from studying BB than MP.

You shouldn't lose in bb, not enough stealing ,raising or bluffing.that small stakes are they really bad? Being a forced bet you fold to much call to much and play wrong tables. Or you are running bad.