How can i find whats the chance to flop certain hands based on my range without assign a flop?
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 968
Equilab requires to assign a flop to find the chance to make certain hands with your range , how can i find the same chance for all possible boards instead of one?
for example lets say my range is: AA-KK-QQ-AKs-AK-JJ-AQs
how can i find the chance to flop certain hands with this range on all possible flops? is there any software to help with this?
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 9,703
Flopzilla.
Odds oracle professional also does some of this.
Both of these are paid for though (but with free trials iirc).
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 5,046
I’m not sure why you specify a range for your hand when in fact you know what your hand is. The reason I point this out is that for a given hand, you can actually figure out the probability of any flop with some practice, especially if you are comfortable using combinations. With a range you have a lot more work.
The probability of a particular flop is
Number of combos that meet the flop criteria / Number of possible flops
Here's an example:
You have a pair. The probability of getting exactly a set is
C(2,1)*C(12,2)*C(4,1)*C(4,1)/C(50,3)
Explanation. There are two remaining cards of the rank of your pair. C(2,1) is the number of ways of choosing 1 of them. There are 12 remaining ranks and you have to flop one card from 2 of these ranks in order to avoid including a full house. C(12,2) is the number of ways of choosing 2 of the 12 ranks and C(4,1)*C(4,1) is the number of ways of selecting 1 card from each of the two ranks. C(50,3) in the denominator is the number of possible flops from the 50 card stub deck. Incidentally, the probability is 10.8%
There are a number of sites that give flop probabilities for a various hand types. I wrote a program to do that. Here is an example of the output when you hold JTo. Sorry for the display. I’m too lazy to format the data in the nice table form of the program.
Flop/Hand Combos Given Jc Td.. Example.. Probability
No overcard to high card 322 | Jc Td 43.04%
1, 2 or 3 overcards to high card AA2 | Jc Td 56.96%
No hit of either card 986 | Jc Td 67.57%
One pair using 1 hole card J98 | Jc Td 28.96%
Two Pair -using both hole cards JT7 | Jc Td 2.02%
Trips using 1 hole card TT7 | Jc Td 1.35%
Full house JJT | Jc Td 0.09%
Quads TTT | Jc Td 0.01%
Flush draw 9c8c7c| Jc Td 2.24%
Flush 0.00%
8 out strt dr. w/Pair or Connect. 984| Jc Td 9.71%
Straight 987| Jc Td 1.31%
