He's got 9 outs, and not 15 outs, right? - Beginning Poker Questions

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He's got 9 outs, and not 15 outs, right?

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02-23-2016 , 07:40 PM

legionrainfall

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 666

https://youtu.be/BJYtWuPXvgw?t=20m39s

McDonald has K8s has a flush draw (9 outs = 36%)
But, with an A on the board, he can't count K and 8 as outs, right?

The opponent has a pair of 7's, so K or 8 (6 outs) are counted in that 51% statistic shown, right? But, he's not counting that when he decides on calling a bet, right?

McDonald's got 9 outs, and not 15 outs, right?

02-23-2016 , 07:50 PM

mrno1324

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 3,055

From our perspective (knowing the hole cards) he has 15 outs, but in his mind he has 9 outs yes. The equity shown is always from our perspective and it is counting the Ks and 8s.

02-24-2016 , 05:55 AM

Big Blind Junky

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 36

Since villain has just a pair of 7's, all K's and 8's are outs too. The shown percentage is all the actual outs in the hand, not the percentage the player thinks he has.

Adding to that, in theory McDonald couldve put his opponent on a different hand, for instance 89o, in which case he does have the K and 8 as outs still.

02-24-2016 , 11:56 AM

Duncelanas

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 6,383

No, McDonald has 14 outs. If I was playing the hand, I might think I had ~10-11 outs on average. You can fudge equity calcs by adding half outs/averaging outs across villain's range. The cast will always show the raw percentage, taking into account all blockers and actual hand combos. Of course you'd expect Seiver to have Ax a large percentage, but certainly not all the time.

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