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Hand equity Hand equity

09-25-2015 , 07:02 PM
I know there are many threads with this subject, but I can't scroll down and look for something in so much threads, so this is the easiest way to find what I looking for.

Equity means 'winning the hand by the river' and if you want to know do your hand have equity you have to do some calculations, and that is where I'm stuck.

I'm not using poker software so I want it to learn to do it 'manually' in my head.

Is there some kind of formula for calculating hand equity, because I didn't find any.

All I did find is calculating cheap equity with formula
'pot size x hand strength - cheap to invest = cheap equity'
there is nothing hard to understand here, but how can I know my hand strength. To know my hand strength I need to know his hand, I mean strength against his range, and how do I calculate that without poker software? I know that AA is 83% in favor against villains range, but what is with other hands?

I know how to calculate pot odds, outs , EV in percentages, but I'm stuck with equity because I can't find how to do it, how to know hand equity..
Hand equity Quote
09-26-2015 , 04:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
I know there are many threads with this subject, but I can't scroll down and look for something in so much threads, so this is the easiest way to find what I looking for.
So your expect the community to spoon feed the answer for you?
Gosh...... Poor attitude for poker.


Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
I'm not using poker software so I want it to learn to do it 'manually' in my head.
not an efficient approach. Efficient is to use the software:https://de.pokerstrategy.com/poker-t...quilab-holdem/
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
Is there some kind of formula for calculating hand equity, because I didn't find any.
You can do basically the same what the equity calculators do, just calculate the probability of a certain hand against a certain range. To do it manually is possible, but long and a chore.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
All I did find is calculating cheap equity with formula
'pot size x hand strength - cheap to invest = cheap equity'
there is nothing hard to understand here, but how can I know my hand strength. To know my hand strength I need to know his hand, I mean strength against his range, and how do I calculate that without poker software? I know that AA is 83% in favor against villains range, but what is with other hands?
which range exactly? ^^
I mean against which cards does AA have 83% equity?

Basics for manual calc would be just to count out possible combos for your hand to win against a certain range. But it is completely dumb to do it manualy.
Hand equity Quote
09-26-2015 , 04:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
I know there are many threads with this subject, but I can't scroll down and look for something in so much threads, so this is the easiest way to find what I looking for.

Equity means 'winning the hand by the river' and if you want to know do your hand have equity you have to do some calculations, and that is where I'm stuck.

I'm not using poker software so I want it to learn to do it 'manually' in my head.

Is there some kind of formula for calculating hand equity, because I didn't find any.

All I did find is calculating cheap equity with formula
'pot size x hand strength - cheap to invest = cheap equity'
there is nothing hard to understand here, but how can I know my hand strength. To know my hand strength I need to know his hand, I mean strength against his range, and how do I calculate that without poker software? I know that AA is 83% in favor against villains range, but what is with other hands?

I know how to calculate pot odds, outs , EV in percentages, but I'm stuck with equity because I can't find how to do it, how to know hand equity..
your question is too large.. I fear you do not fully understand the basic terms

start by studying the meaning of terms.
follow that up by reading the threads .. start by stikeys

the science of poker was an easy book regarding math used in basic poker evaluations.

I am quite good with math and the formula/terms you quoted sounded giberish..
Hand equity Quote
09-26-2015 , 06:05 AM
Goodday all.

Most software provides equity calculation that assume we will see the river card i.e. assume we are all in. Software examples are equilab and pokerstove.

1. I wonder if it is necessary to see our equity from street to street instead of assuming we are all in pre flop?

2. Is there any free software that let us see equity from street to street?

Thank you.
Hand equity Quote
09-26-2015 , 07:53 AM
lapka- I don't expect anything from anyone, I just ask a question, and if someone want to help me I will be grateful.
I don't know german so is this link to download poker software?
I didn't write it well, particularly against KK is 83%, and against betting range is 89%.
So you saying that manually calculating is worthless?

Monsieur- How do you know that I don't understand the basics, just from my too large question??
What quoted sound giberish? 'pot size x hand strength - cheap to invest = cheap equity' this??
Hand equity Quote
09-26-2015 , 12:52 PM
There are a number of ways but most of them are for special situations. There are equity calculators that do it in either of two ways. Given your hand or range and opponent’s hand or range and board cards and known dead cards, they use

Enumeration: Consider every possible future confrontation and use poker rules to determine the winner and then weight the result by its occurrence probability.

Monte Carlo: Randomly deal remaining board cards millions of times and count how many times each player wins.

As a player you can do neither while playing but here are some other ways given you know your hand:

Favorite-to-Underdog Matchup(approx.probs)

Matchup . Probability. Odds for
Pair vs. 2 undercards 0.83 4.9 : 1
Pair vs. lower pair 0.82 4.3 : 1
Pair vs. 1 overcard, 1 undercard -offsuit 0.71 2.5 : 1
Pair vs 1 overcard, 1 undercard - suited 0.67 2.0 : 1
Pair vs. 2 overcards (race) 0.55 1.2 : 1
2 overcards vs. 2 undercards 0.63 1.7 : 1
Dominated - e.g., AK vs K2 0.73 2.7 : 1
Sandwich e.g. K7 vs Q8 0.59 1.4 : 1
Intermix e.g., KT vs Q9 0.63 1.7 : 1

OUTS AND RULE OF 2 AND 4

Estimate the number of winning cards still in the deck = OUTS. For next card, multiply your outs by 2. For next two cards, multiply outs by 4. Use the 4x rule only on an all-in bet. Example: You have a four flush after the flop, so you have 9 outs to a flush. Villain goes all-in. Your estimated win probability is 4*9 = 36%. The exact probability is 1 – 38/47 * 37/46 = 35%

You can also do Direct Calculation using combos and probability theory, memorize special cases using Published Tables, make an educated guess based on Experience and situational factors or do a Combination of methods.
Hand equity Quote
09-26-2015 , 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
I didn't write it well, particularly against KK is 83%, and against betting range is 89%.
So you saying that manually calculating is worthless?
It's not that it's worthless, it's that it's virtually impossible unless you have a brain the size of a planet.
It's hard enough to calculate KK's equity vs one hand. It takes a lot of calculations to work out the equity against every hand in a range, and then work out the frequencies of each hand (because suited hands make 4 combos, offsuit make 12, pairs make 6, but the cards in your hand and any on the board "block" many of the combos in an opponent's range).

Which is why we use computer software to do it for us.
You can use tools like Equilab to learn things like "How much equity does an overpair have vs a flush draw and one overcard", but no one can look at a flop and a reasonable range and immediately say "I have 54.2% equity vs villain's c-betting range". You can practice with the Equilab equity trainer tool though. I sometimes surprise myself with lucky guesses that are within 0.2%, but I also have a tendency to be hopelessly wrong by 20% or more, even when I'm looking at the precise range on the screen.

In addition, you also get a feel for equity (without knowing the exact number) just from playing a lot. With experience, you just sort of "know" when a flop is better for your opponent's range, or when you're likely to be way ahead. e.g. If you flop top set aces on A93, you don't even need to think "How often is villain going to suck out with two Broadways like KQ or JT?" because the answer is "almost never". If you have AA on AT9tt, however, there will be lots of hands with reasonable equity even if they are currently well behind, because that flop has so many draws that connect with hands in a typical calling range.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 09-26-2015 at 01:49 PM.
Hand equity Quote
09-26-2015 , 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
lapka- I don't expect anything from anyone, I just ask a question, and if someone want to help me I will be grateful.
I don't know german so is this link to download poker software?
I didn't write it well, particularly against KK is 83%, and against betting range is 89%.
So you saying that manually calculating is worthless?

Monsieur- How do you know that I don't understand the basics, just from my too large question??
What quoted sound giberish? 'pot size x hand strength - cheap to invest = cheap equity' this??
sry here the same link in english
http://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-t...quilab-holdem/

With manual calc..... Have a look at statmanhal's post.....
I mean it is good to have some rules of thumb. But .... really get equilab and play with it. It is so much fun.
Hand equity Quote
09-27-2015 , 05:31 AM
Thank you Statmanhal for the post, I appreciate it a lot!

Arty I didn't know that calculating equity requires that much math. I thought that I can do it while I play, like when I calculate my pot odds and outs, and see how equity my hand have, but I understand it now now many works that demands...
Btw what is the difference with outs percentage and hand equity, I mean how large can be the difference between outs percentage and hand equity?
For example if you have flush draw on the flop (against over pair or 2 pairs) you have 35% to hit that flush by the river, and is that what you hand equity is? 35%?

Lapka thanks for the link I will download it latter...
Hand equity Quote
09-27-2015 , 05:42 AM
Equilab changed my life. haha, but no seriously it's a crime if you don't ever use software like Equilab/Flopzilla to study.
Hand equity Quote
09-27-2015 , 06:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sil3ntness
Equilab changed my life. haha, but no seriously it's a crime if you don't ever use software like Equilab/Flopzilla to study.
I'm gonna start today then if is that helpful...

Is it free to download Equilab and Flopzilla?
Hand equity Quote
09-27-2015 , 10:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
Btw what is the difference with outs percentage and hand equity, I mean how large can be the difference between outs percentage and hand equity?
For example if you have flush draw on the flop (against over pair or 2 pairs) you have 35% to hit that flush by the river, and is that what you hand equity is? 35%?
Outs are only a very rough guide. They are kind of helpful for making a quick calculation on how likely you are to suck out and beat top pair for instance. e.g. If you have a naked flush draw (no overcards) on the flop, then 9 outs twice is about 36% equity. The problem is that villain's range isn't just "top pair". He also has sets (so you could make a flush, but the board pairs and gives him a boat) and higher flush draws. Sometimes he's bluffing and both your holecards are "live", giving you 6 additional outs. You might also have 3 cards to a straight, so the turn could add another 8 cards to your list of outs. It's very complex, because the board can change so much and ranges can include 200+ hand combos.
Quick example: If you have AK on K74, it's a very good situation for you if villain has KQ. He only has 3 outs and you have about an 85% chance of winning. But if villain has a set of 7s, you only have 2% equity. The extreme difference is why you need to learn equities against ranges, not single hands.

Tools like Equilab can do all the calculations for you, and do it extremely quickly, so that you can learn how much equity your flush draw has against a range that includes, top pair, two pairs, sets, bigger flush draws, two overcards, one overcard, bottom pair etc etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
Is it free to download Equilab and Flopzilla?
Equilab is free. Flopzilla is not.
Hand equity Quote
09-27-2015 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
Outs are only a very rough guide. They are kind of helpful for making a quick calculation on how likely you are to suck out and beat top pair for instance. e.g. If you have a naked flush draw (no overcards) on the flop, then 9 outs twice is about 36% equity. The problem is that villain's range isn't just "top pair". He also has sets (so you could make a flush, but the board pairs and gives him a boat) and higher flush draws. Sometimes he's bluffing and both your holecards are "live", giving you 6 additional outs. You might also have 3 cards to a straight, so the turn could add another 8 cards to your list of outs. It's very complex, because the board can change so much and ranges can include 200+ hand combos.
Quick example: If you have AK on K74, it's a very good situation for you if villain has KQ. He only has 3 outs and you have about an 85% chance of winning. But if villain has a set of 7s, you only have 2% equity. The extreme difference is why you need to learn equities against ranges, not single hands.

.
So you don't use outs in calculating your equity?
Can I find threads here about equity against ranges, to completely understand it, because I can't continue with other things if I don't understand equity?

One more question. So if I want to know my equity against button opening range for example i need to calculate it on equilab, or shortstack shoving range as well?
But you can't be sure that your hand has 40% equity (for example) against button 3beting range every time, it depends on many factors (is he aggressive player or tight, is he on tilt...) I could guess that he has Ax,Kxs,55+,QJ,Q10,J9,10 9, but he could had 85s as well...
My point is that is takes a lot time to calculate it on equilab ( to click all that things) and that repeat in every simular situation...
Hand equity Quote
09-27-2015 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
Is there some kind of formula for calculating hand equity, because I didn't find any.
Try an example: for AhAs against 2c2d there are 1,712,304 (that's C(48,5) board run-outs. Deal out each one and count how many times AA wins/ties.. AA wins 1,392,072 times and ties 8,560 times. Therefore your equity is (1,392,072 + 8560* 0.5) / 1,712,304 or 0.81548136312.

That might take a while. With AA against 22, without knowing the suits, there is 36 times as much work; that's 61,642,944 scenarios.

That's why some lazy people use equity calculators like PokerStove which will give you the result in less than a second:

1,712,304 games 0.002 secs 856,152,000 games/sec

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.548% 81.30% 00.25% 1392072 4280.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 18.452% 18.20% 00.25% 311672 4280.00 { 2c2d }
Hand equity Quote
09-28-2015 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
So you don't use outs in calculating your equity?
Not any more, no. I'm obviously aware of things like "I have 10 outs to make a boat or quads with my set when it seems like villain just turned a flush", but like any player with experience, I play against ranges, and I'm fairly good at estimating when I can call (or semi-bluff) profitably with a hand that is likely to be losing. You have to remember that very few hands even get to showdown. Most of the time, I'm betting (not calling) because I expect villain to fold at some point. It's only really the calling stations at the lowest stakes that need to count outs, because it is those kind of players that constantly find themselves chasing draws.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
One more question. So if I want to know my equity against button opening range for example i need to calculate it on equilab, or shortstack shoving range as well?
But you can't be sure that your hand has 40% equity (for example) against button 3beting range every time, it depends on many factors (is he aggressive player or tight, is he on tilt...) I could guess that he has Ax,Kxs,55+,QJ,Q10,J9,10 9, but he could had 85s as well...
My point is that is takes a lot time to calculate it on equilab ( to click all that things) and that repeat in every simular situation...
There might be some threads, but you're probably better off looking on YouTube for Equilab tutorials.
You can save preset ranges in Equilab for future reference (e.g. a typical MP range, and a typical SB 3-bet range vs MP) and run the equities to give you an idea, but mostly you learn from experience and tracking your results. You don't learn this stuff overnight. I was playing for 3 months before I knew Equilab even existed, and it opened my eyes, but I still use it on a daily basis, especially when looking at hand history posts on the forums. e.g. If someone faces a shove on the turn, I'll try and come up with a reasonable range for making that play, and then calculate the equity of hero's hand and compare it to the pot odds to see if hero can profit by calling off. It's only by doing this kind of thing hundreds of times that you learn which spots are "easy calls", "easy folds" or "it depends".
As smmcoy pointed out, there are millions of board combinations, so you can't solve every single one, but by becoming a better hand-reader, you can recognise situations where you are likely behind, and you can use Equilab to find out how far you are behind, and use the percentages to work out whether the best play is to call or fold.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 09-28-2015 at 12:55 PM.
Hand equity Quote
09-28-2015 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smmcoy
Try an example: for AhAs against 2c2d there are 1,712,304 (that's C(48,5) board run-outs. Deal out each one and count how many times AA wins/ties.. AA wins 1,392,072 times and ties 8,560 times. Therefore your equity is (1,392,072 + 8560* 0.5) / 1,712,304 or 0.81548136312.

That might take a while. With AA against 22, without knowing the suits, there is 36 times as much work; that's 61,642,944 scenarios.

That's why some lazy people use equity calculators like PokerStove which will give you the result in less than a second:

1,712,304 games 0.002 secs 856,152,000 games/sec

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.548% 81.30% 00.25% 1392072 4280.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 18.452% 18.20% 00.25% 311672 4280.00 { 2c2d }

Thanks for the post!
I'm not sure that I figure out this for 100 %...
This is calculating percentage for winning against single hand, but as I understand Arty the thing is to know equity against ranges..
So If I want to know my equity for KQs against UTG raise ( guess he is raising with 20% of his range) you need to know how many combos of 20% his range he raise and than do the math...
And to count how many board combos can come...that is definitely a lot of numbers, and I suppose that's easy for you but will have to practice a lot to do it easy and in short amount of time...
Hand equity Quote
09-28-2015 , 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
Not any more, no. I'm obviously aware of things like "I have 10 outs to make a boat or quads with my set when it seems like villain just turned a flush", but like any player with experience, I play against ranges, and I'm fairly good at estimating when I can call (or semi-bluff) profitably with a hand that is likely to be losing. You have to remember that very few hands even get to showdown. Most of the time, I'm betting (not calling) because I expect villain to fold at some point. It's only really the calling stations at the lowest stakes that need to count outs, because it is those kind of players that constantly find themselves chasing draws.

There might be some threads, but you're probably better off looking on YouTube for Equilab tutorials.
You can save preset ranges in Equilab for future reference (e.g. a typical MP range, and a typical SB 3-bet range vs MP) and run the equities to give you an idea, but mostly you learn from experience and tracking your results. You don't learn this stuff overnight. I was playing for 3 months before I knew Equilab even existed, and it opened my eyes, but I still use it on a daily basis, especially when looking at hand history posts on the forums. e.g. If someone faces a shove on the turn, I'll try and come up with a reasonable range for making that play, and then calculate the equity of hero's hand and compare it to the pot odds to see if hero can profit by calling off. It's only by doing this kind of thing hundreds of times that you learn which spots are "easy calls", "easy folds" or "it depends".
As smmcoy pointed out, there are millions of board combinations, so you can't solve every single one, but by becoming a better hand-reader, you can recognise situations where you are likely behind, and you can use Equilab to find out how far you are behind, and use the percentages to work out whether the best play is to call or fold.

So what you do to count EV, equity and pot odds?
I imagine counting equity easier (manualy) like counting pot odds... Do you count (or think about) equity while you play live games?

I play for more than 6 months without any program..
I know most of them and know how they works, but I thought that I will learn better the game and basics if I goes thru every segment of the game by my own, without any help (software help) to make it easier with just final result with no explanation now and why to do it...
But I see now what they mean and how they help in progressing your game...
I'm just hoping that I didn't throw away this time without any poker software...
Hand equity Quote
09-29-2015 , 04:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
...I thought that I will learn better the game and basics if I go thru every segment of the game on my own, without any help (software help)...
All software - PT4, Equilab etc - are tools. Just tools. They help you to improve your game, if used correctly.

Just as a hammer is used to help you build home. It would be silly not to use hammer when you an option to do so. The same way you use Equilab or equivalent to help you understand equity better (what boards favor you and what not).

Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
Can I find threads here about equity against ranges, to completely understand it..
You don't need to COMPLETELY understand equity to utilize it! Do you COMPLETELY understand electricity ? Probably very little if at all

I think you are mentally blocking yourself with thinking pattern:
"I need 100% understand A before I can move to B."
In poker there are so many things to understand, so many aspects.

Be happy to improve your understanding even like 1-10%. Understanding will come gradually. You move up a little A then you can move up a little B and finally you move up C.
Basically, you try understand all things a little better (to see big picture etc) not focus a month on one single ***** thing trying to understand it COMPLETELY.

Just like in math you learn basic addition etc and later improve understanding on that concept. You don't learn all there is to know about addition (or whatever else) at first. It happens gradually, over time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
So If I want to know my equity for KQs against UTG raise (guess he is raising 20%)
  1. You open Equilab.
  2. You assign 20% range to your opponent
  3. You type your own hand
  4. You press evaluate

If you want to train a bit more your range vs villains range then:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
You can practice with the Equilab Equity trainer tool though.
Basically you input villains range, then you input your range (or hand). And finally you will be presented with numerous flops where you can try guess your equity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
My point is that is takes a lot time to calculate it on equilab ( to click all that things)
Not really. It takes less time than you think.
Here is basic guide of Equilab (link)

GL!
Hand equity Quote
09-29-2015 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ajai_Alai
All software - PT4, Equilab etc - are tools. Just tools. They help you to improve your game, if used correctly.

Just as a hammer is used to help you build home. It would be silly not to use hammer when you an option to do so. The same way you use Equilab or equivalent to help you understand equity better (what boards favor you and what not).


You don't need to COMPLETELY understand equity to utilize it! Do you COMPLETELY understand electricity ? Probably very little if at all

I think you are mentally blocking yourself with thinking pattern:
"I need 100% understand A before I can move to B."
In poker there are so many things to understand, so many aspects.

Be happy to improve your understanding even like 1-10%. Understanding will come gradually. You move up a little A then you can move up a little B and finally you move up C.
Basically, you try understand all things a little better (to see big picture etc) not focus a month on one single ***** thing trying to understand it COMPLETELY.

Just like in math you learn basic addition etc and later improve understanding on that concept. You don't learn all there is to know about addition (or whatever else) at first. It happens gradually, over time.

  1. You open Equilab.
  2. You assign 20% range to your opponent
  3. You type your own hand
  4. You press evaluate

If you want to train a bit more your range vs villains range then:

Basically you input villains range, then you input your range (or hand). And finally you will be presented with numerous flops where you can try guess your equity.


Not really. It takes less time than you think.
Here is basic guide of Equilab (link)

GL!

I agree with you I thank you for posting, and I will take it seriously...

I only disagree a little bit about understanding one thing and moving to a next level, I think that if you learn, not completely but for 80 or 90 % , one thing ( for example thing A) the easier it will be for you and to understand the next thing (thing B), but if you learn one thing for 10 % than when you move to next advanced level you will need much more time to overcome it because 10 % from earlier level is not enough knowledge..
Maybe I'm wrong but in this case it will be more stable knowledge you carry...

I hope you understand what I'm trying to tell you...
Hand equity Quote
09-29-2015 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
So If I want to know my equity for KQs against UTG raise ( guess he is raising with 20% of his range) you need to know how many combos of 20% his range he raise and than do the math...
This is what Equilab is perfect for.
Let's say it's 6-max and villain opens a 16% range that looks a bit like 55+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+

We can immediately calculate our equity with KQs and find it is 46%. Note, we are not beating villain's opening range (we have less than 50%), but this hand has decent playability. It will be close to breakeven as a call, unless villain is exploitable in some way.

When the flop comes Q74tt and villain bets the flop, we have to narrow his range. He's not betting every single hand that he opens (it would make no sense to bet JJ for example). So we remove some combos from his range (using Equilab) and maybe estimate he's only c-betting 50% of his range. We're likely to be ahead now, because the only hands in villain's range that are beating us are QQ, 77, AA, KK, AQ. We don't need to know our exact equity in that spot, because we know from experience that TPGK is usually the best hand on the flop, and that villain will have plenty of bluffs in his range, but we can do the calc if we want to define villain's range precisely. We can do further range reductions and equity calcs on the turn and river, with us ultimately being able to put villain on a range for the river. If he bets, we can calculate our equity and compare it with pot odds to see if it's a profitable call.
Quote:
Originally Posted by alm1ghty11
So what you do to count EV, equity and pot odds?
I imagine counting equity easier (manualy) like counting pot odds... Do you count (or think about) equity while you play live games?
I don't really count anything. I just sort of "know" how I'm doing against a range, because I've played quite a lot of hands and done lots of equity calcs.

I mean, I don't literally know that TPGK has 53% equity vs a typical c-bet by UTG on Q75tt, but I know that TPGK is a pretty good hand, but it's not as good as a set (a very high equity hand), but it's a lot better than jack high (a low equity hand).
Hand equity Quote

      
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