It seems like if you donk, especially full pot, you know EXACTLY where you stand because only sets will raise you (of course, at THIS table there's a chance of being raised by TP, TPTK, OESDs and lower flush draws, but I don't think it's +EV to assume that villains are dumb). Luckily, in MY case he minraised and gave me easy odds to continue.

If you check/call, then if another villain bets and gets raised you can get out of the hand without losing a bet, and if a villain bets and just gets called you have AWESOME odds to continue, and may even be in good shape with all 15 outs.

At *this* table, where so many villains are willing to stack off with top pair, I really think that donking is the best option because with 2 overs and a flush draw you have a VERY good chance of stacking off and WINNING. I like donking better than check/raising because it GUARANTEES getting money in the pot.

Thoughts?

Yes. It guarantees you get money into the pot with no pair and a draw that is not even a draw to the nuts. :/
The only card you really want to see on the turn is the ace of hearts.

If villain had made a proper raise, you'd have to fold. By donking full pot, all you're doing is setting a higher price for your draw and driving out hands that may have given you value when you hit. If these players are as bad as you say, one of them would probably bet 3/4 pot and there would be at least one other caller, giving you much better drawing odds, and you'd still be able to get stacks in if you hit your hand. If you have a good draw, you usually don't want to get heads up. You want the hand to remain multiway, so the pot lays better odds and you can win an even bigger pot.

I'm with Arty here. You don't want to 'guarantee getting money in the pot' when you have king high. You also do not have a "VERY good chance" of winning here if you're up against a set, or an A high flush draw. In fact you don't have a "VERY good chance" of winning against even one hand that might call you. At best you're in a coinflip spot.

A.Ertjberg's post above about the virtues of donkbetting here is, I think, the most interesting post in the thread. I'm not sure I agree with him, just because I think he's only right if our villains are competent, and we've been asked to assume that they're not. But if you think donkbetting is good here, then A.Ertjberg explained why it's good. It's not because you de facto want to get money in the pot; it's because it might let you win the hand even if you don't make your flush.

The more I think about it donking probably isn't the best play. My post was more of a reaction to the "lol, don't donk" reasoning that was being thrown around.

I think c/c>donking>>>>>>c/r.

Firstly, our donking is repping a ridic strong range. The same would be true for anyone else betting into this pot. So a c/r is trying to get someone to fold a really good hand when we have K-high. They aren't going to fold very often and we get a HU pot with, at best 50% equity. Often we will have less. I think a c/r is a mistake here.

As for c/c over donking. We do have lot of equity, but the difference of our equity isn't going to change much between HU or 5 handed. So rather than getting the pot HU and hope to take it down on a turn semibluff or by catching our flush I think trying to play our draw in a multiway pot is preferable. If we can somebody to come along with a hand like 65 that is a huge win for us.

I spelled your name wrong, twice.

Sorry!

Thanks all. Great discussions. Very helpful.

well i think donking is the best play.

why?

1. because it sets up the most optimal continuations. how do u want them to respond to ur donk? lets see:
- they can fold, which is good.
- they can call, and ur fine with that too, because they are almost always raising a set on this flop. u can follow up by double barreling most turns, as a semi bluff, or if u turn a K or Q u can easily double barrel for value since they should raise all better OTF (gotta be more careful with Q because it makes the straight). u also induce multiway action, which is good for u.
- they can raise, which is not the most optimal response, but what are they raising? points to u if u said "sets" because that's about it (perhaps the NFD too, but that also has u crushed). it's pretty unlikely anybody has an overpair, and probably nobody has JJ either, so if ur only going to get raised by 22 or 88, then all the more reason for u to donk.

2. why not c/r? because if u think it's a bad idea to donk into 4 other people, what makes u think it's a good idea to raise someone who bets into 4 other people? ur also setting up stacks so that villain puts in the last raise, and ur forced to call it off.

3. c/c minimises value u get from all 15 perceived outs u have. if u hit ur flush ur going to play it completely transparently and if u hit K or Q ur going to have a crappy time tryin to get 1 bet called.

i don't even see what's so marginal about the entire hand in question. call the flop minraise, hope to hit a heart on the turn, c/f otherwise, easy...

Do you plan on donk/folding?

not necessarily, eg in this case we donk/call.

as i said, we donk because based on their preflop ranges and ranges for raising flop, we don't expect to be raised very often (prove me wrong), so if u do get raised and are forced to either fold or shove, that's ok.

whether i fold or shove obv depends on who raises. if draws are a part of someone's raising range (of which there are many here) then shove ainec. readless, probably tend towards shoving and groan if they have a set. if there are overcallers before the raise u can call, since it's almost always good to get in 3+ way.

edit: what i'm trying to say is (i have trouble getting my ideas in words) if readless, i'd rather err on the side of shoving because it's much more likely for me to be underestimating their ability to raise worse draws or AJ, than it is for me to underestimate their odds of hitting a set.

c/c is best play here imo.
Even if it means playing your hand face up.

Donk betting will fold only the worst hands then yours, continuing on the turn if it bricks is just hanging yourself. No hand that calls/raises you on the flop is going to fold the brick turn.

Donking is fine, plenty of hands might call and then fold to the second or third barrel. Full pot is too much though, bet $1.50-$2 and you can still bet the turn and shove the river.

What are your reads on the button?

Your value from getting it in against AJ is very little and the value from getting it in against draws isn't that good when we don't have the NFD.

Assuming proper raisesizing we will either have to fold or shove. I feel very confident in saying that if we get it in here we are in bad shape. Not horrible, but I never think we can be the favourite against his range.

If we are forced to fold we are folding so much equity. The idea that this is ok seems wrong. Folding our draw here against a range of strong made hands is pretty bad because we have so much equity. It isn't the same as folding TPTK when villain has a set because we have no equity there. In that case it would be fine. Here it really isn't.

That said, donking probably is +EV. I just think the EV of c/c'ing is bigger. Ideally we want to keep this pot multiway and keep bad draws in and be getting huge odds, bot implied and direct.

I don't know the odds either but the chance that one out of the 5 has something decent here isn't that small I think.

As long as we can agree that a c/r is bad I think we have come a long way.

Agreed

yea but i mean after the raise folding vs AJ would be an egregious mistake.

Axhh is bad for us but if it's that bad wouldn't u be making the argument to fold a dominated draw pre instead of now?

oh of course not, which is why i hope we don't

this is one of those cases where by the time he puts in the raise it's too late and ur already priced in. on the surface that sounds bad but it's actually really awesome. saves u a decision also, u get to put in the last bet which is a oft overlooked advantage

which is why i decided against folding for aforementioned reasons

donking does the same thing. people call, u keep it multiway.

assign villains with all the hands that aren't raising u. if they have AJ, donking is a stronger line because u can donk a K or Q, and if u don't have to c/r a flush because ur definitely not getting called. donking also works out better vs worse draws, mid pairs, etc. donking is better line vs almost every hand that's just calling. so we come back to "how afraid are u of getting raised, really?"

but their value range is so straightforward. and their ranges given preflop action are ridiculously wide. removing JJ and overpairs trivialises their value ranges even further - if one were to raise 22 why would they not also raise AJ?

concur with this