you pick off a big enough river bluff hu against an unknown,

how often are you paying him in the next situation (hu facing a sizeable bet with moderate to strong holding but not nuts)?

how likely do you think he is to bluff at you again?

do you just keep paying until he shows you a winner?

you don't have to answer all questions, if you could leave any considerations that would be very helpful, thank you

Can you really judge their bluffing frequency with a hand sample of 1? I mean maybe if it's crazy donkey ****, but more than likely this line of reasoning leads you to make mistakes.

Develop a solid baseline strategy that works well against maniacs and nits alike. Slowly adjust as you become more confident in your reads.

Good post.

Unless it's some way OOL stuff, I'm just trying to play a good strategy. I'll continue bluffcatching if I think it's a good spot and/or I have a good combo for bluffcatching. If not, I'll fold.

thanks for the responses,

i have experience with river play. So going in with experience, feel and a general idea of wtf i'm going to do, what i'm asking is in spite of these things, with this specific added variable, exploitatively speaking, I think villain's more likely to have a strong holding the second time around. And I would use this info to weigh with the rest of my repetoire. I'm not so concerned that we only have a single sample, because there is a dynamic that carries thru when you pick off a bluff from a stranger and shortly thereafter encounter another suspicious bet OTR. You can isolate hands and have a general plan, but to separate it from previous play limits good information. usually there's a session running dynamic, and in low stake play where new players with no history is common, i think these spots are important to evaluate.

i feel like it's a leveling thing, he bluffed me, and now here he's likely to have it, but that's what he expects me to think, so he could very well be pulling the trigger again.

I really think this line of reasoning will lead you to make mistakes. Maybe they're just playing a range of bluffs/value bets and you're reading too much into it? Maybe K9o go brrr? Maybe they perceive you as someone they can bully and bluff more?

From a statistical standpoint the sample size is meaningless. Just play a solid strategy and don't get sucked into this 1980's feel play leveling nonsense.

I agree with this post, like concentrate on playing good poker > spending time on planning out level wars, that said if an opponent is visibly upset about having a bluff picked off, I do think they are more likely to show up with the goods next time. I wouldn't be giving it much weight though without more info.

For me, that would highly depend on the hand in question. Generally speaking, we should adjust our play only if that hand gave us a specific reason to do so.

If we catch a bluff in a spot where villain was supposed to take that line with a decent enough frequency, that doesn’t tell us too much. If we catch him triple barreling 33 on KJT95hhh we might want to think what that means for the future. But there’s a good chance that kind of player brought more hands to showdown before it’s him versus us again.