Quote:
Originally Posted by 5th Suit
thanks for the responses,
i have experience with river play. So going in with experience, feel and a general idea of wtf i'm going to do, what i'm asking is in spite of these things, with this specific added variable, exploitatively speaking, I think villain's more likely to have a strong holding the second time around. And I would use this info to weigh with the rest of my repetoire. I'm not so concerned that we only have a single sample, because there is a dynamic that carries thru when you pick off a bluff from a stranger and shortly thereafter encounter another suspicious bet OTR. You can isolate hands and have a general plan, but to separate it from previous play limits good information. usually there's a session running dynamic, and in low stake play where new players with no history is common, i think these spots are important to evaluate.
i feel like it's a leveling thing, he bluffed me, and now here he's likely to have it, but that's what he expects me to think, so he could very well be pulling the trigger again.
I really think this line of reasoning will lead you to make mistakes. Maybe they're just playing a range of bluffs/value bets and you're reading too much into it? Maybe K9o go brrr? Maybe they perceive you as someone they can bully and bluff more?
From a statistical standpoint the sample size is meaningless. Just play a solid strategy and don't get sucked into this 1980's feel play leveling nonsense.