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04-07-2012 , 07:51 AM
Live tournament, blinds 300/600/75, 8 players at the table, I have 90K.

I open MP with 6s5s for 1500, 2 callers, SB, a tilting player who defends his blinds almost always, calls, BB folds.

Pot 7200.

Flop AsTs9c

I bet 4000, 2 folds, SB shoves for 19000.

Pot is 30200, I need to call 15000 more.

If all my flush outs are good, my odds of getting there are 1:1.9 so it seems like a call.
However: I could be up against a higher FD or if he has two pair or a set (although he'll likely reraise AA pre) some of my outs might make him a full house.

So is this a call or a fold and if a fold, how much better would you need the price to be?

Last edited by BigRounder9; 04-07-2012 at 07:57 AM.
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04-07-2012 , 09:31 AM
Since you already have the villain's bet in the pot, your pot odds are actually 1:1, not 1:2. You're betting 15K to win 30K so you're betting to double your money.

I'm not an expert to the degree of others on here, but since tournaments are all about survival, my advice would be don't bet to double your money when you only have about a 36% chance to win. Wait for a better spot.

I also wouldn't recommend raising 65s first in, especially not from MP - it just so seldom makes the nuts it's hardly worth it. The only times I would ever even PLAY 65s in a cash game OR a tournament is if the table is the type of table where I can get away with limping in, or if I'm in late position and have 3 or 4 callers (to make the pot big enough to warrant taking the risk).
Flush draw: do I need better odds? Quote
04-07-2012 , 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Since you already have the villain's bet in the pot, your pot odds are actually 1:1, not 1:2. You're betting 15K to win 30K so you're betting to double your money.

I'm not an expert to the degree of others on here, but since tournaments are all about survival, my advice would be don't bet to double your money when you only have about a 36% chance to win. Wait for a better spot.

I also wouldn't recommend raising 65s first in, especially not from MP - it just so seldom makes the nuts it's hardly worth it. The only times I would ever even PLAY 65s in a cash game OR a tournament is if the table is the type of table where I can get away with limping in, or if I'm in late position and have 3 or 4 callers (to make the pot big enough to warrant taking the risk).
Not sure what you are talking about with the pot odds. If the pot is 30200 (which it is), and you have to call 15,000 then you are getting approximately 2-1 pot odds.

As for the call - if you were sure that your outs were all good, this is right on the margin. Against some hands you are in very deep trouble. I think it depends on the situation. If you were already in the money, and eliminating one player guarantees you move up in money, and the loss wouldn't effect your relative chip position too much, it is probably worth a call. Otherwise, you can dump it and not feel too bad.
Flush draw: do I need better odds? Quote
04-07-2012 , 11:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by VBAces
Not sure what you are talking about with the pot odds. If the pot is 30200 (which it is), and you have to call 15,000 then you are getting approximately 2-1 pot odds.

As for the call - if you were sure that your outs were all good, this is right on the margin. Against some hands you are in very deep trouble. I think it depends on the situation. If you were already in the money, and eliminating one player guarantees you move up in money, and the loss wouldn't effect your relative chip position too much, it is probably worth a call. Otherwise, you can dump it and not feel too bad.
Admittedly I always confuse odds with ratios, so I may have misstated.

But unless I'm misreading the hand he has 9 outs and only 9 outs (no overcards to the board so no 6 or 5 is likely to help him), so he has at best a 36% chance to win the hand.

So I believe I correctly stated that he's betting to double his money with only about a 36% chance to do so (using the 2/4 rule with 2 cards to come), so his odds aren't even all that close.
Flush draw: do I need better odds? Quote
04-07-2012 , 02:04 PM
Calling is pretty much EV neutral. Pot lays 2:1 and with villain all in, you have two chances to hit your flush, so you have about 35% equity, which is also about 2:1.
Villain's most likely hand is Ax. Since the As was on the flop, he's not on a flush draw.
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04-07-2012 , 02:09 PM
Assuming you're far away from the money it's going to be close to $EV neutral. Contrary to the above, if the villain is defending wide he's going to have a lot more flush draws than 0 and you're going to be in pretty bad shape often. If you have a skill advantage you probably want to forgo this spot.

Strategically though, opening 65s against a tilting player who always defends his blind might not be the best idea.
Flush draw: do I need better odds? Quote
04-07-2012 , 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokes
Calling is pretty much EV neutral. Pot lays 2:1 and with villain all in, you have two chances to hit your flush, so you have about 35% equity, which is also about 2:1.
Villain's most likely hand is Ax. Since the As was on the flop, he's not on a flush draw.
I know I keep asking the same question over and over but how can a 35% chance to double your money be considered even equity? Calling the villain's raise is betting $15000 to win $30000.
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04-07-2012 , 04:51 PM
2/3 times you lose $15,000 (total of -$30,000)
1/3 times you win $30,000 (total of +$30,000)

= $0 net
Flush draw: do I need better odds? Quote
04-07-2012 , 04:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
I know I keep asking the same question over and over but how can a 35% chance to double your money be considered even equity? Calling the villain's raise is betting $15000 to win $30000.
Because he isn't trying to double his money, he is trying to triple it. He needs to win 1 time in 3 to break even (chipwise - moneywise it isn't the same because it is a tournament). If he does have 1 in 3 - then every 3 times he plays he will lose 2 - this will cost him 30,000. And he will win 1 - this will win him 30,000. The potsize will be 45,000 - 15K he is putting in with the call, 30K is already in the pot. Just imagine a blackjack game - you bet $10 to win $10 - you will be trying to double your money. If they offered you 2-1, you would be betting $10 to win $20 - trying to triple your money (which is why they don't do this).

This is why you will have situations where you face an all-in on the flop with a flush draw and overcards, or possibly a gutshot or even backdoor straight draw and it will be +EV because you may win more than 1 in 3.
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04-07-2012 , 08:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
I know I keep asking the same question over and over but how can a 35% chance to double your money be considered even equity? Calling the villain's raise is betting $15000 to win $30000.
If the pot lays 30k to 15k, then it lays 2:1. This is the same thing as 66% to 33%. If you have a better than 33% chance of winning the hand, the pot odds justify a call.
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04-08-2012 , 11:58 AM
preflop raise is spewy given dynamics. Flop is neutral if villain never has a set or flush draw himself so I would say that it is indeed a very negative call. Muck it and don't ever look back no never look back... o you and me
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04-08-2012 , 08:46 PM
You ain't closing a hella'va lot of action with 65s imho.

I never open weak suited connectors pre from EP, you should play this hand more in LP cause you do need good pot odds to be in the pot.

Last edited by HUHandEH; 04-08-2012 at 08:53 PM.
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