When I played this hand I thought it was incorrect to call at the turn but did it anyway (no excuses). Now that I'm writing this post I'm totally unsure and would appreciate some clarification.

Working with the rule of 4 and 2, I think I was correct to call the flop because I had 9 outs to the flush x 4 = 36% (1.77 to 1) and I was getting odds of 2.66 to 1. Given the board, I could also add a little given an Ace might see me home too.

But on the River I'm getting odds of 4.66 to 1 and my 9 outs x 2 only give me 18% 4.55 to 1.

If I wanted to convince myself that calling was the right action, then adding the 3 aces in would give me 24% (3.16 to 1) and the right odds to call.

Assuming my math is correct, my questions:

(a) should I have added the aces in?
(b) in this case the villain helped me out by only betting the same size bet on the turn as he did the flop. If he made a similar bet in relation to pot size it would have priced me out, even including the aces. This is the bit I am most confused about when calling a flop bet because in the back on my mind I know it is likely I'll be priced out of calling the turn if I don't hit. And, if that's the case - why am I assuming I have two chances when calling the flop as there is a high likelihood I'll never see a river if I don't hit?


PokerStars - $0.02 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $0.94
BTN: $3.23
Hero (SB): $3.33
BB: $5.03
UTG: $1.02
UTG+1: $2.70
MP: $1.92
MP+1: $0.73

Hero posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has A 8

fold, fold, MP raises to $0.06, MP+1 calls $0.06, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.05, fold

Flop: ($0.20, 3 players) 4 9 K
Hero checks, MP bets $0.12, fold, Hero calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.44, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, MP bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12

River: ($0.68, 2 players) 6
Hero bets $0.43, fold

Hero wins $0.66

imo you made a slight gamble that ended up working in your favor. The gamble was calling the flop, but luckily he made the same sized bet on the turn which enticed your call - again an okay play. If you checked on the river he probably would have shat out another small bet which you could re-raise. So the play wasn't standard, a bit of a gamble, but not too bad.

its only 36% if you see both cards. you still need the correct odds to pay and see the turn.

I posted a hand like this recently, I think the considered opinion was raise the flop

fold PF.

but if not,

c/r flop, no friggin min raise either, please
call turn as played
always lead river

On the turn your pot odds are 56:12 (4.66), and your flush outs give you 46:9 (5.11), but you may have some implied odds, villain may call some kind of a bet some of the time even when the flush hits.

You are probably right to include your 3 aces as outs, which would give you odds of 46:12 (3.83).

As said, its often best to raise the flop here, you are often more or less flipping at that point with a made hand, and you have fold equity.


edit: KS ninja posted as I was typing Calling from the blinds here shows how hard it can be to get paid paid off when you are OOP, even when you make your hand, so I agree with 'fold PF'.

I would like to know more about the villain. I think its possible to 3bet this hand pre.

Only my second hand with the villain unfortunately so no stats to go on.

But over the course of the session he ended up with 49 hands, VPIP 24.4, PFR 4.08

Thanks KS and ASB, I can see how folding pre makes sense.

And, yeah, I forgot about factoring in implied odds (and, of course giving them the chance to deliver on that front for me with a smaller river bet).

I'm more than happy to raise and get the NFD in on the flop most of the time. However, the problem in this case, if you are vsing a thinking player , they can quite easily interpret your raise as full of **** on that flop, because you're not repping very many hands. If you're the average TAG joe, you're only repping 44, 99, flush draws, and air.

For this reason, if I was IP this hand, I'd probably flat more often than not, but OOP you don't have the equity.

So this is just another reason in addition to all the others that you should fold pre.

If villain is playing 24/4, then he's pretty easy to play against. He's fairly loose and passive pre-flop and often quite passive post-flop too. He makes fairly small bets, indicating he has top pair. Check-raising the flop is unlikely to get this player to fold a king, unless he has a terrible kicker (but that's unlikely as he raised pre, so I put him on KQ or AK, or a decent pocket pair). You can just check-call and draw out on him cheaply. A smaller value-bet on the river would probably have a better chance of being called, as when you lead out for 2/3 pot there after check-calling earlier, it just screams "I haz flush. You must fold your top pair".

Correction - the flush outs give you 37:9 or 4.1 to 1 and with the aces, they are 34:12 or 2.8 to 1. With pot odds of 4.7 to 1, easy call or possible raise.

heh, math fail, my bad

(I'm always doing that, getting 1 in 4 and 3:1 etc kinda wrong)

ty for the correction !