Flopping a low-denomination flush and how to play afterwards
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 24
If you play a suited connector, maybe 5d6d, and you flop a flush, great(!), but how should you play it afterwards? Should you play it reasonably slowly in order to try and get as much value, or should you try and force a fold after the turn in case another diamond comes on the river and gives them a higher flush? Several times I've had a smaller suited connector hit a flush on the flop and then the turn or river has helped villain complete their higher flush (Qd, Kd, and so on).
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 5,046
You can safely assume that if an opponent also hits a flush then you are a loser. But, how likely will that be? With your 65dd holding and the monotone flop, there are 13-5 = 8 flush cards left out of the 45-card deck and 37 non-flush cards. Assume your one opponent holds one higher diamond. The chance another diamond hits is
Pr(diamond on turn or river) = 8/45 + 37/45*8/44 = 33%.
So, assuming you don’t lose to a full house of better, your winning chance is about 67%. Equilab has 68% for villain holding AdKs. With two opponents it reduces some. I used Equilab for the following example:
Hero 65dd. Villain 1 AdKs. Villain 2 Top 25%. Flop K 8 2ddd
Hero’s showdown equity was 66%, so he is definitely ahead but it’s not a monster hand. (I thought it would be a bigger reduction.)
With bets in pot size units and your eq > 50%, you can show that the minimum bet to have villain mistakenly call is as follows:
Bet > (1- eq) / (2eq- 1)
which, for eq = 66%, is a bet of about 1.06 x Pot. This give hero EV = Pot so villain is indifferent to calling or folding, a GTO-like characteristic.
Whether that minimum bet is superior to a smaller bet or to a slow play will depend on such exploitation factors as opponent characterization, stack sizes, position, tournament standing, etc.