Even if its not the main topic of this thread, I got interested into the AA vs. KK discussion, so I analyse my hands in PokerTracker and did a bit of math (I really love math and this is quite interesting excersise) xD


Firs of all how many different hands can hero get?
(52 choose 2) = 1326 // 2 of 52 cards are dealt to hero

How many of those hands are KK?
6 // hero can have KhKs, KhKd, KhKc, KsKd, KsKc, KdKc

Now assume that hero already has KK from the deck; how many possible hands combinations can be dealt to the rest 8 villains?
(50 choose 16) * 15 * 13 * 11 * 9 * 7 * 5 * 3 // 16 of 50 cards are dealt to 8 villains; 15 * 13 * 11 * 9 * .... is how many pairs* can be made of 16 cards

How many of those posibilities contain at least one AA hand?
6 * (48 choose 14) * 13 * 11 * 9 * 7 * 5 * 3 // one villain has AA, he can have it in 6 combinations; 14 of 48 cards are dealt to 7 villains; 13 * 11 * 9 * 7 * .... is how many pairs* can be made of 14 cards

So what is the chance that some villain gets AA assuming that hero already has his KK?
(6 * (48 choose 14) * 13 * 11 * 9 * 7 * 5 * 3) / ((50 choose 16) * 15 * 13 * 11 * 9 * 7 * 5 * 3) =
= 6 * (48 choose 14) / (50 choose 16) / 15 =
= 6 * 48! / 14! / 34! / 50! * 16! * 34! / 15 =
= 6 / 50 / 49 * 16 * 15 / 15 =
= (6 * 16) / (50 * 49) =
= 96 / 2450 = 48 / 1225

As I am thinking about it now, I could do it MUCH less complicated:
If I already got KK, any villain gets 2 of 50 cards, i.e. his chance for aces is 6 / (50 choose 2); for 8 villains it is:
8 * 6 / (50 choose 2) = 48 / 1225
Well, at least I verified that 2 ways are leading to the same result xD

Therefore in average 6 of 1326 games I got KK and in such case in average 48 of 1225 games some villain gets AA, i.e. chance for that is:
6 / 1326 * 48 / 1225 = 48 / 270725
It means that it should happen (in average) once per 5640 games.
Of course, in average once per 5640 games the opposite situation should happen as well (villain is holding KK, hero AA).


I look to my hands played and I see there:
8 of 20k hands I was playing KK vs. AA (of the games I was the AA); in average it should happen 3x or 4x, so I am a bit unlucky on this.
1 of 20k hands I was playing AA vs. KK (of the games I saw the KK); in average it should happen also 3x or 4x.
Either I am also a bit unlucky in this or some people fold their KK against my AA.


The result is that even if tiltninja was wrong about my selective memory, he was definitely right about always calling all-in with KK preflop: it worths.
The only think I am not sure about is if people are really folding KK against my AA, or if it was just bad luck.




----

* Pair in this meaning (marked with *) doesnt mean two of kind but just a pair of (any) two cards.

glad you figured that out.

now, had you dedicated all this effort towards how you played the other 19991 hands...

also, it's entirely possible that someone folded KK when you had AA at some stage. like instead of 3betting they flatted and the flop came A or 789 or something and they ended up getting away from it. that doesn't mean they're a genius. it means they're a dumbass. they may have played that hand perfectly but for every time they do that they will flat instead of 3betting when you have 56 and let you flop a straight or some bs. that's why I say to not waste your effort thinking about hands that play themselves. think about hands where you can outplay your opponent. that's where your net profit comes from after you play 20k hands

Absolutely! As a first thing I decided to put here 5 hands in which I lost the most money with comment what I think of my playing there.... if you would tell me in what I am wrong, I will be glad.



So preflop game here is not much interesting, I was opening, so I bet 4BB, nothing special, I was called.
On the flop I hit TPTK, so I bet and I was called, I think till now still OK.
On the turn I bet again and I was reraised, so I needed to go all-in or fold. I was thinking following: There is nothing dangerous on the board, no flush, no straight, nothing, so if villain has a set, he has no reason to raise so much (if there would be some dangerous draw, he can bet to protect his set). If he would have set, he would try to not scare me in such situation. By that all-in he is just trying to steal nice pot, so I called. Wrong decision.
The question is why? I see it was wrong because I called all-in of somebody with stronger hand. But how could I know that? Was there any sign of it which I missed? Or it is just bad any time to call all-in with TPTK?



I was outplayed here. The player with so good full house was just checking and waiting.
Then, on the river, I got full house too. So I felt very powerful.
When he raised the river a bit, I thought he just want to steal it. So I reraised him. Then he went all-in, so I expected him to hafe A or more likely straight ten to ace, so I called.
Was there some sign in his play which would make me expect better full house than mine? If yes, I missed them again.



Here I think I played well and did no mistake, I lost just because he hit that jack, so this was matter of luck.
True or not?



Here I got a pair + flush draw, so I semibluff on the flop, I was called.
Then I continue the same on the turn. I was reraised and I call. Should have this warn me? Should I fold in this situation?
On the river I got secon pair and I went all-in with it. It was stupid, right? After I am reraised on the turn, I shouldnt all-in river with just two pairs, right?
Or are there some other signs which I ignore?



Here I was building pot preflop with AA, my first bet was small because I hoped I will be reraised and I really was.
Then flop with potential straight draws came.... I was playing against 2 villains so I tried to protect my hand by betting a lot. I hoped that villains with draws will fold (or even if they calls, it gives me higher chance to win).
However, they both called with a gutshot straight draw. And one of them won because he got three of kind.
I think this wasnt bad play of me? Or was it?

1. fold turn. look up baluga theorem. don't overbet

2. fold. there's no way a straight or trips would shove there.

3. fold to the 3bet. call flop.

4. c/c flop. you generally shouldn't be donking very much, and in this case you have no reason to be semibluffing - you can't get A to fold and you are ahead of almost everything else. again don't overbet. on the turn, baluga applies here - he is never raising less than pair. check river and re-evaluate. your 2 pair probably isn't good given that he raised the turn.

5. open for 40c, don't overbet flop

also, don't show results when you post, and don't tell us that you lost these hands, because it will introduce bias into the responses you get.

play lower stakes - your game has too many fundamental flaws to beat 25NL

Why? Explain, please. I dont see it. How could you guess that?
(I believe that you are right, I just absolutely dont know why and I need to know.)

Yes, I should have had fold to the 3bet.
But why just call on the flop?

I opened for 20c because it was a plan: I am CO so they will think I am just stealing blinds and they will reraise me. Whats bad on this plan? It works very well on low stakes. Or not?
And dont overbet flop? Why? It was on purpose because I expected some draws, so I wanted to deal with them. Why is it bad?

Good advice, thank you!

Yes, I am playing 5NL now and I wont go higher until I will significantly improve. I am not playing even 10NL anymore.

do you really think he will shove over a raise with a straight? you are representing at least a straight by raising there and he still decides to shove over you...

don't chase away your action, especially with a 3rd person in the pot. you are in no danger of not getting all your money in before the river. call down and bet if checked to.

well do they? you can answer your own question...

do you always overbet? if so, you're making it hard for worse hands to call if you're doing it for value and you're getting a bad price on a bluff. if not, and you only overbet your really big hands then even bad players will catch on and start exploiting you.

in this hand, you can bet anything on the flop and get the rest in on the turn

Yes, talking about it like this.... you are right.
Its just very hard to fold fullhouse.
But it is bringing me to another question: I saw quite often that if there is very strong board, some people are tenting to go all-in in believe that nobody has better hand and somebody can fold. E.g. 999AA board or ThJsQhKdAh.... yes, there is a small chance that somebody is holding something better but the chance is not high. Which pot odds you consider as viable to call such raises?
I the case above I thought that even if I could be representating straight or three of kind, he might think that he has the same and just want me to fold my hand. Your explanation is good (and moverover I lost my money because I didnt follow it) but I am still not sure how to handle such situations in general.

Thats true.
In general I should play like that, you are right.
Just by the way, would it help me there in that situation I showed?
I would put my money to the pot anyway, sooner or later, he just hit jack there, so he would try to make me go all-in and I would probably do that because I have three of kind with the best kicker.

Yes, they do. But you told me to bet 40c and I suppose you are better player so I want to know why do you think 20c is bad.

No, not always. But in this situation (5th hand I posted) I think its a good decision.
Why?
Because the flop is dangerous (especially with 2 villains), they have there possible draws. So my point is: Bet a lot on the flop, because then they have to decide. Eigher fold (good for me), or call a lot with draw against probability (also good for me).
If I would let them get the next card for cheap, there is a big chance that at least one of them hits. So I think that against dangerous flop I shoulod protect my good hand even more if there is more people in the game. Because if they have draw, each of them must decide (and if he is betting, he is going against the probability), on the other hand for me is the next card REALLY dangerous becuase there is a big chance that at least one of them hits (for me is irrelevant which of them hits, for each of them its not, so I expect them to fold).

Next 5 hands of my most losing ones:



Well.... this was super-braindead of me. I dont know what I was doing.



Baluga, right?



I remember this hand very well. I was afraid that he is holding Ac, but I thought that he doesnt have the flush yet.
How to play it better?



Here I was all the time thinking: I have a good hand already and it can even improve.
And on the river I was thinking: I have probably quite bad hand but nice pot odds.



Here I was trying to bluff on the flop.
Then I hit the turn and I put away all my money.
I played this hand quite long time ago, now I wouldnt even play in on that position, I suppose.
Except of folding preflop, was even the flop bluff bad?

Haven't read entire thread. But your op says you lose most money from KK and premium hands like AK or TPTJ. Do you have database proof of this or are you just saying stuff like this based off your "crap memory".if you a tracking software then you can actualy filter those habds and see your winrate with them. Big hands always do better than marginal hands.

Also that first hand u poted of kk ws pretty badly played. You must really believe the other player always has it. Why not just 4b pre and gii? Who cares about the results, don't be results oriented. You've still only played 20k hands which is absolutely nothing. You know that magorko guy? He went on a 400k breakeven stretch last year and he's one of the winningest regs at zoom500.

As for the above hands i dont actually play nlhe, but ill put my plo opinion anyways...

1) fold river, looks ok until then
2) isnt this a fold pre? You're utg and should expect a hand that either has you crushed or has a lot of deceptive value to 3b you. You flop well, but it also hits his range hard, what's your reason for donking? I think starting with a check/call is the way to go. What's that bet sizing OTT meant for are you trying to induce a ship? And when he raises you're not folding river so you may as well ship the rest of your stack in if you think you're good. But you should prolly fold.
3) wp
4) you gotta either ship or fold flop here i think. He's comitting himself with the raise and it's a very scary board but he could have some weird draw. But usually he'll have 20 or better. Usually folding here, shipping again aggro guys.
5) i dont understand your flop raise. This flop crushes utg+1's opening range. When you hit the turn i guess it's standard to gii, but the way the hand played out it's actually likely that he slowplayed a set...

calling for a split is suicide. I don't know what experience you've had, but usually they have A or flush if they shove.

calling allows him to double barrel bluff, and it allows the 3rd person into the pot. the board is dry, so there aren't many action killing turn cards. and, as I said the pot is already big so you don't need to get all your money in now. you can give villain some rope to hang himself

this situation is very simple. your plan is to minraise to induce a 3bet. if they 3bet, then your plan is a success. if they don't 3bet, your plan is a failure. if your plan succeeds more often than it fails then keep doing it... why should I tell you otherwise?

if villain has a draw, then your plan should be to get all your money in by the turn, because if villain doesn't hit by the river they won't put another cent into the pot.

your concern about getting all your money in on the flop is unfounded. say you bet half pot on the flop, and they call, hit the draw on the turn and felt you. if you shoved the flop and they called, they would hit their draw on the turn and felt you anyway. as long as you size your bets in a way to ensure those hands will never fold the flop and the turn you've succeeded in what you set out to do.

and if you're going to overbet the flop then shove. don't leave yourself $1 behind - that's just poor planning and shows that you are unaware of stack sizes

next batch of hands:

1. I find it funny that on the AA hand you're so adamant about getting your money in as fast as you can when there are a lot of draws, and yet here you're slowplaying...

2. fold pre and WTF are you doing the rest of the hand i dont even...

3. wp. grats

4. fold flop. you're never good when you get raised on a flop like this. and saying your hand can improve - what cards that improves your hand will give you the best hand? e.g, do you really want an A to come?

5. UTG+1 villain, K high flop, 2 out. this is the opposite of a good spot to bluff. btw don't minraise if you're attempting a c/r bluff

Well, my database is saying following:
My most losing hands (starting the worst one): AJo, AKo, TT, JJ, QJo, KSs
My most winning hands (starting the best one): AA, 88, QQ, 99, KQo, 55
But I think there still can be some variance; I dont see any good reason why am I +50$ with 99 but -30$ with TT. Or do you?

It wasnt my hand, I dont think I posed here any KK hand.
By that "dont be result oriented, youve still only played 20k hands" you mean in 20k hands is too little to find out how bad I am doing?


About your comments to the hands I posted: I undestand & agree (even if I didnt realize many of that things before you wrote them down). Thank you very much.

20k hands is nothing, even for nlhe. Play with a variance calculator like pokerdope.com. You could still be a loser at 100k hands easily if you true winrate is <4bb/100.

OK, I mark that!
My experiences are very different, except of one case it was bluff every time I saw it. However, I didnt play so many hands so I take your advice.

True.
I am too much influenced by the result (he got JJ, called that all-in anyway and moreover then hit the third J), thats why I am seeing that hand as a "losing hand", but I should probably see it as "winning hand" (because mostly it woudl be).

Oh, thank you!! Now I get it and its much better way how to play that!!
Just to make sure I understand it right:
Instead of putting all-in on the flop, I put half on the flop and half on the turn EVEN IF the turn is dangerous card (because there is a lot of dangerous cards but I dont know which one is really helping them)?
So in fact by betting half flop and half turn I would achieve what I achieved here anyway but I am smallering the chance that they will fold?

Yes, this was very bad, mainly the river call I find very stupid. I really dont know why did I do that.

Interesting, I though the first hand was much worse and you are second person who is critisizing this one more. But yes, I see I played it terrible.

No, I wanted Q to come, this would be the improvement.
Please, explain me what do zou mean by "raise on a flop like this". I mean.... in what cases I shouldnt raise like this?

Good point with that minraising.
Why is it "the opposite of a good spot to bluff"?

Because villain is unlikely to be folding, and you only have 2 outs when he calls.

If you want to semi-bluff, do it when there's a decent chance villain will fold (i.e. the board misses his range), and you have a bunch of outs when he calls.

On the K84tt, I wouldn't be raising many hands, but something like 76hh and 65hh (gutshot+flush draw combos) are pretty decent, because so many turn cards are useful to you and scary for villain, and you'll almost certainly get paid by AK if you bink the straight. 33 is a bad hand to bluff with, because it will hardly ever bink the turn.

First of all, I would like to say thank you to everybody who helped me in this thread; in just one day here I have improved my playing probably more than in last two weeks.
I have played quite a lot today (1000 hands); I won 800BB but it is not the important part: the point is that now I am playing with some plan (at least mostly; sometimes I still fail in it), I know what to do and my actions are much less chaotic than before.

However, there are 3 hands I would like to discuss here because dont think I handle them good (in fact I see there some mistakes but I suppose that you will see much more); I will be glad for any comment.

Hey again OP. Had a look through your earlier hands - agreed with everything Tiltninja said so won't repeat all that

Your bet sizing seems to be a pretty big leak. Don't overbet pots without good reason - you'll just scare off the hands you want to get value from, and keep in the ones that beat you. And when you get raised and fold you lose a lot more chips.

2/3 of the pot is usually good as a default. You can vary this a bit depending on board texture and what you want to get value from. Generally betting slightly more (3/4-full pot) on a drawy board and less (1/2 pot) on a dry texture is good.

Your preflop open sizing also looks a bit all over the place. I don't play full ring so I guess 4x might be standard open size from early positions, but for 6max I just go with 3xBB from all positions other than the button, and 2.5 from BU. Opening 2x from earlier positions isn't great as you encourage callers who have position on you. And don't do it with AA just cos you want to get callers. You want to play a big pot with a hand like this and get the money in as soon as possible.

You're donking far too much and in the wrong spots. Why donk in hand 1 (of the latest load of hands)? Flop is an easy x/c as played. I think there's a case for 4betting pre - not easy to play QQ OOP and without the initiative.

Hand 2 seems fine to me apart from the 2x open. Fold if he raises river. Your sizing is much better than in the other hands. Sometimes he has you beat by the river but I still think we can get value from some Kx hands. I can also see a case for a x/c - even though the runout looks scary the most obvious draws (T9 and clubs) have both missed and he might bluff with these, although he might take his SDV with a 9. I think I prefer bet/fold though.

Hand 3 - don't really know about the merits of the open limp as I don't play FR. Never open limping in 6max. The rest of the hand looks fine to me. We get awesome set mining odds so easy call of the raise pre. Flop call is fine with our open ender and pair and deep stacks. His shove OTT makes little sense to be honest but we don't have great equity against the range he does this with, even if that includes two overs with hearts in the best case scenario.

Why x/c? If he doesnt have J (which is more likely than he has it), he would probably fold on raise but check on check and get free card.

OK, I am probably too much scared of AA or KK.


And thank you for good comments of my bet sizes, I will work on it.

you're scared of AA/KK preflop so you decide to call, and then on the flop suddenly you're not scared of AA/KK and decide to bet into him

The donking needs to stop. You're value-cutting yourself.

It's perfectly OK to check-call if you're not sure "where you're at". With QQ on JJ9, the only hand villain might fold on the flop is AK, which you're beating, so there's no need to bet. Check-calling will give you just as much info, as villain will tend to slow down on the turn unless he has you beat. If you're lucky, he'll check it down to showdown, so you'll lose the minimum when you're beat, but you'll probably also get a free chance to bink the best hand if he has KK+.
Note that with QQ vs a range that includes KK+, you benefit more from free cards than villain does, so it makes no sense to put money in the pot. Why pay for cards when you might get them for free?

Well, if you put it like this, I feel like an idiot; you are right, of course.

Yes, good point, thank you.
I am sorry that I am asking questions with such obvious answers.... my problem is that I see them obvious after you explain it, not before. I need to get into such poker thinking; normally I am very good in logical thinking but in poker I am sometimes thinking ridiculously stupid, I dont know why.

No need to apologise. Of course it's easier to see these things in the cold light of day than in the heat of a session with the time bank running down in front of you. The more you play the more natural the thinking will become (I mean, I'm hardly there yet but I know I'm improving).

This will sound mega obvious, but just think about what you're trying to achieve with all of your actions - and not just on whether to bet, raise, fold or call, but also the sizing of your bets.

I would like to ask you for some consultation again:







Thank you.