Expected Value equation problem! - Beginning Poker Questions

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Expected Value equation problem!

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12-10-2010 , 10:06 AM

IgoUP

stranger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 6

Hi,

I just read a book and I don't understand this equation:

If I set villain's folding freq to zero, and my equity to zero it's show me positive EV...

I think it's not good. Can you confuting me?

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12-10-2010 , 10:53 AM

HUHandEH

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,458

What book?

I am bit confused about the equation, and the letters. If you're xing anything with 0 it should be 0.

In your equation, the two brackets, and inner letters should be more defined cause you have to complete the inner part of the brackets..so the actual equation should look like this...

EV= f X p + (1 - f)(b-q X t) <-----is this right? X meaning multiply

Last edited by HUHandEH; 12-10-2010 at 11:05 AM. Reason: cause.....

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12-10-2010 , 11:07 AM

IgoUP

stranger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by HUHandEH

What book?

I am bit confused about the equation, and the letters. If you're xing anything with 0 it should be 0.

The book is: "Don’t Listen To Phil Hellmuth"

So, I set:
Villain's folding freq to zero: f=0
Current pot: p=1000
Hero must bet to allin: b=1000
My EQ when we go allin: q=0
Total pot: 3000

EV = 0*1000 + (1-0) * (1000 - 0*3000)
EV = 1000

I don't thing it's good.... what you think ? (or what i do wrong?)

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12-10-2010 , 12:06 PM

the_fisherman

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 370

That EV calculation looks fishy to me. Here's a good one:

f=fold% of opponent
P=pot size
B=bet size
w=win% of your hand
EV=f*P + (1-f)*(w*(P+B)-(1-w)*B)

This calculation is more logical, IMO.

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12-10-2010 , 12:35 PM

HUHandEH

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 5,458

forget about the equation...where did you get that avatar...I've seen her before.

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12-10-2010 , 01:16 PM

the_fisherman

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 370

Her name is Christina Model. Has some nice vids on the interwebz

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12-10-2010 , 02:05 PM

sputum

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,435

Quote:

Originally Posted by IgoUP

fp+(1-f)(b-qt)
so left hand side is when he folds (zero in this case)
leaving b-qt

which I think should be qt-b (your equity in the all-in pot minus the cost of getting there) and would make your EV -1000 and correct.

Searched briefly for an erratum couldn't find one. Maybe just having a brain fade.

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12-10-2010 , 02:50 PM

sputum

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,435

by the way I crossposted in the Books and Publications thread on this book. I'd not heard of it before you posted

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12-10-2010 , 03:01 PM

GiantBuddha

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 4,910

Sorry guys. That's a brutal error and 100% my fault. Sputum is correct that it should read (qt-b) and not (b-qt). A corrected e-book will be sent out everyone who received the first version. So the whole equation is:

Expected Value = fp + (1-f)(qt-b)

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12-10-2010 , 03:43 PM

#10

sputum

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,435

yay good spot IgoUP

and yay for the electronic book format also

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