If i get it in with AA vs KK 100bb NL100 and aces hold on and that's the only in my database

82% to 18%


what will the graph look like, as in where will the green line be and the EV line?

winnings will be $200 but i assume the EV line will be $36 higher than the green winnings line? because the 18% x 2 = 36

is this right?

Not quite, you won $100 so your green graph goes to $100, your winning will be $100 not $200 (?)
You should win $82 on average so your EVAllinAdj goes to $82 and you see a $18 difference between the two, the actual is $18 above the adjusted.
This is assuming it goes allin pre-river at a point where you have 82% hand equity.

If it was the only hand in your db the green graph line goes from 0.0 at the origin to $100, and the adj goes from 0.0 to $82.

Oh, and the opponent's graph will go from 0.0 to -$100 but the adjusted should go from 0.0 to -$82, this player's actual lost $18 compared to the long run situation whereas you won $18.

Oops - I think I messed that up, and you are right.
The graph for the one hand should start from your stack point of $100.00 and then you get it in into a pot of $200 and win so the normal line now goes to $200.
On average you should get back just 82% from the $200 pot so your stack in the long run should become $164.00 and the AllinAdj should go from $100.00 to $164.00.
So yes, you do get the difference of the 2 * $18 value you said in the first place.
Sry.

Hmm actually i think i was wrong

The green line should be at $100 because I'm not up $100 while the EV line will be at $136

Right?

Why would your EV line be above your green line if you won?

Think about why that wouldn't be possible and let me know why it's not.

You were right first time. You didn't win the 100$ you started with so your winnings will be 100$ in total.

Yes the gain will be $100 for the non adjusted but the first post was still wrong and perhaps the second post is a bit off in that I was showing the graph as starting off from $100.0 and going to $164.0. If this is the first hand in the db this starts from 0.0 but I still think it does go to +$64 not +$82. I'll try again, 3rd time lucky.

Ok if we say the hand equity is made up of a pure 82% win and 18% lose, no ties, the villain shoves to $100.0 and we call

Ev(the gain per hand) = Pr(win)*(any init pot + bet size) - Pr(lose)*(Hero investment)
in this case the init pot = 0 as it is the start of the hand pre blinds, so init pot + bet size = $100

Hero investment = $100

Ev(the gain per hand) = 0.82 * (init pot + bet size) - 0.18 * Hero investment
Ev(the gain per hand) = 0.82 * 100 - 0.18 * 100
Ev(the gain per hand) = 82 - 18 = $64

We get $82 from the weighting for the win part of the equation but we also lose $18 from the weighting for the 2nd part, a total gain of $64.

I often use the approach of thinking of the hand equity as the proportion of the full final pot we get back in the long run.

The gain per hand = the amount we get back - the amount we put in
(the amount we put in = $100)

we have 82% equity of a $200 pot so we get back in the long run 0.82 * 200 = $164
and the gain per hand is 164 - 100 = $64.

So the normal non adjusted goes up by $100 because we gained $100 but we should get a gain of $64 in the long run and the adjusted line goes up by this value.
This should be mirrored by the opponent's graph, normal one goes neg, down by $100 and the adjusted line only goes neg down by $64, the amount the opponent loses in the long run.

Well I hope I have it in a reasonable fashion now if not I'll continue to post as I could do with getting my post count up

hmm confused noob to this poker talk sry, any chance drawing a pic of this graph example?

Ok, I reckon the winners will look like the left hand one and the loser's graph is the rhs.


edit: Thanks Fozzy you beat me to it.

Ok the first graph is different to the second

The first one, the EV line is at .50 but in the second graph its at .82 ?

I was thinking the .82 was right?

EV is monumentally overrated.

The first from Fozzy does not use the exact values you stated and the green 'normal' goes to $0.76 not $0.82 here.
There is also a second unimportant difference as there are two hands and thus the graph goes from hand 1 to hand 2.
I produced my graphs using a spreadsheet for ease with the exact values, Fozzy used Hem2 and some hands filters to produce his so the actual values aren't exact.

If the bet was $100 the normal would go up to $100 if you won as indicated by mine.

In the real world there will be some rake removed and it then it would be done as though the pot was the value less rake, so in practice if rake = $5.00 the final pot is $195, bet is $97.5, and the green goes from 0.0 to $97.5 as this is the amount won. The adjusted amount goes to the amount that would be won 'in the long run' for this match up and so would be ((0.82 * $195) - $97.5) = $64.0)

On Fozzies hand the net won is $0.76 so if I am right the final pot less rake is $1.52.
The hand equity is shown as 81.9%
Long run value = (0.819 * $1.52) - $0.76 = $0.4849

So the adjusted should go from 0.0 to $0.48, while the actual goes to $0.76
(this is a diff of $0.27512) but this is shown as $0.27 and the small difference will be from a rounding effect on the hand equity.)

As mirage01 indicates these adjusted values are very often overrated and should be ignored unless you understand it and have a good reason to be looking.
In cash especially most hands don't get to allin preriver and so no adjustment is done to them, the values gained from these unadjusted hands dwarfs the gain or loss (or luck) from the adjusted and in 'luck' terms is often a very minor contributor.

BaseMetal2 thanks for your detailed explanation its much appreciated

Just a thing regarding your graph again, i made a mistake when i said $82 but you have the EV line at ~ $62 shouldn't the EV line be at $82 because the player was 82% to win the hand, so he run 18% above EV ??


Also just another example

when a player is totally dominated like say KK vs AA on a 223 board $200 stack (1-2) so calls pre flop and turn, and after the turn bet the KKs player has $10 left behind, and on the river a K comes and the player with Ks donks all in and AA calls.

So what happens with the EV line here for the player with AAs?

he lost $200 but was ahead until the last $10 bet only on the river?

Will the graph only work with the $10 or the whole $200?

Because if it uses the whole $200 it seems misleading the he would be down $200 but bet $190 to only get nutter on river with only $10 left.

You can't graph just one hand in HM2 so I had to find a hand where I won 0.00 and then a hand where I had AA vs KK. I didn't bother taking the time converting the hand from 80bb's at NL2 to 100bb's at NL100.

If you get 95% of your stack in on the turn and the final 5% in on the river, then it takes your equity on the street you got all in on. EV is calculated at the point in which everyone is all-in. Calculating it any other way would be biased since we don't know what hands people might have folded.

Here is our Video regarding the EV function of HM - http://hm2faq.holdemmanager.com/ques...ected+Value%29

Here are some threads explaining Equity.

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/mana...ituations.html

http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questio...ph+Tell+Me%3F+

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=20994

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=17621

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=20000

It is $62 because this is how much a player that is 82% to 18% ahead will gain in profit from a $100 + $100 pot and these trackers track your profit.

Being able to calculate this is the very important thing, much more so than the adjusted line - if you learn how to calculate the value of a poker move you can analyse your own hands for mistakes much better.
If a player bets $100 into an empty pot you need to know at what point it becomes a positive thing to call.

As I stated earlier you can use an EV equation:
Ev(the gain per hand) = Pr(win)*(any init pot + bet size) - Pr(lose)*(Hero investment)

Or often easier you can calculate the amount you get back from the full pot if you call and if this is exactly the same as the amount you put in it you have broken even, if it is more you have made a profit

"Hand Equity" can be defined as the amount you get back from the final full pot if you do get to showdown.

If the pot is 0.0 and HE is 50% you get back as much as you put in in the long run although in prectice one side or the other usually wins all the final pot and has a profit of final pot - amount put in. If there is already money present you don't need as much as 50% HE to break even, very often much, much less

Here we have 82% hand equity and we have to call $100 to see a showdown of a final pot of $200.

If we do call we get back 0.82 * $200 = $162
but we had to put in $100 so the profit is the amount we get back less this $100 = $162 - $100 = $62

If yoiu played this hand 100,000 times over you would get a profit of approximately $620,000.
The trackers ruthlessly calculate the gain or loss of profit from the actual point at which the hand goes into the allin state (pre-river and no one left to act). It uses the actual hand vs hand Hand Equity and so this is pretty useless except when you consider thousands of these and not an individual hand. If calculating the profit from a move you have to use your guess at a villain total range not the actual opponent actual hand!

If several thousand are looked at the Allin adjustment starts to make sense and takes out a little bit of the luck factor when accessing the results of thousands of hands.

I'll try to calc your example hand with the AA vs KK at the flop and then at the turn if a K hits but I am sloppy and may screw up. If I do I won't reply I don't need the post count increase that much

++++++++

Ok at the flop if both started with $100 and are HU and the pot is $20 + $20 = $40 when seeing the flop, each has $80 behind.

KK vs AA on a 223r board $200 the equity is 91.616% to 08.384%
So at this point if ALL the money goes in the trackers like HEM2 will then provide an adjusted figure for the hand like such:
The final pot is $200.
We get back (in the long run) 91.616% of $200 = $183.232
and in this case we had to put in $80 so the long run profit is $183.232 - $100 = $103.23

Profit in this actual single hand at this allin point is amount returned - amount put in = $200 - $80 = $120
The $evDiff is the actual profit - adjusted profit = $120 - $103.23 = +$16.77

In this case, ie, all the money went in on the flop when we had extra $equity already present in the pot, we risked $80 and we won, ie we got a little lucky.
The amount the $evDiff will gain is $120 - $103.23, so we gained $16.77 more than the long run.
In this case the green normal figure goes to $100 but the other is adjusted by taking off $16.77 from this figure. Again we won so the green is higher than the adjusted and by $16.77.

+++++++++

KK vs AA on a 223Kr board $200 the equity is 4.545% to 95.455%
So at this point if ALL the money goes in the trackers like HEM2 will then provide an adjusted figure for the hand like such:
The final pot is $200.
We get back (in the long run) 4.545% of $200 = $9.09
and in the common case when we lose we had to put in $10 so the long run profit is $9.09 - $10 = -$0.91

Profit in this actual single hand when we lose at this allin point is amount returned - amount put in = $0.0 - $10.0 = -$10

The $evDiff is the actual profit - adjusted profit = -$10.0 - (-$0.91) = - $10.91

In this case, ie, all the money went in on the turn and we lose
The green goes from $0.0 to -$100 but the adjusted goes from $0.0 to ( - $100.0 - (-$10.91)) = -$89.09

Here you had -$10.91 of bad luck, it may seem like you should use the flop as the point to show luck but the machine can't tell if you are effectly allin at this point. If enough hands are considered in the tracker sometimes you be be the person that gains from this and sometimes you lose out but this should be pretty even with a massive amount of hands.

+++++++++

If we call the turn and hit the magic card on this river we get a great deal of 'luck'.

We get back (in the long run) 4.545% of $200 = $9.09
and in the uncommon case when we win we had to put in $10 so the long run profit is $9.09 - $10 = -$0.91

We should have got back $9.09 but got $200.00 so compared to the long run we gain $200 - $9.09 = $190.91

Profit in this actual single hand at this allin point is amount returned - amount put in = $200 - $10 = $190
The $evDiff is the actual profit - adjusted profit = $190 - (-$0.91) = + $190.91

In this case, ie, all the money went in on the turn and we win
The green line goes from $0.0 to +$100 but the adjusted goes from $0.0 to ( +$100.0 - ($190.91)) = -$90.91
So here you had $190.91 of extra luck.

So just to get it right if Hero lost his full $100 buy in, but was ahead on turn with $90 invested and got nutted on river where villain hit 2 outer outer etc and villain went all in for remaining $10, the EV graph would calculate villain as ahead for the whole $100 even though he was behind flop and turn when the majority of the money went in?

BaseMetal2 i really appreciate your replies but English is not my first language and I'm new to poker so lot of the things u said went over my head

Yes, all-in EV is not calculated on the River since all the board cards are shown. Your equity at that point is either 100% or 0% depending on what your opponent has. It can only be calculated if one or more board cards is unknown when you go all-in.

Thanks

So that means a good player who has a terrible session vs a villain who plays poorly and keeps sucking out on him, the good players EV graph will be misleading for that session.

I know this is meant to average out over a longer run, but really a good player is going to suck out a lot less than a bad player, who is bad because he is more often than not getting his money in bad. So the EV line can be misleading towards better players if I'm right.

I just done a session review from yesterday games, where i played 46 HUSNGs Hypers turbos, and the graph has me running -$800 vs this villain in EV.

But i decided to do my own review of hands played regarding the EV, and basically what i done is, in my excel i put games 1 to 46, and then went over every game, where i gave the winner $400 total prizemoney to each player who should have won the game, since the games were $200 buy ins.

How i did this was when the money went in, and if i had him covered in chips and i was favorite to win 51% vs 49% i should have won that game, and same for the opponent, so according to this i should have won 26 from the 46 games.

So total invested was 46 x $200 = $9200

and with these calculation i done regarding favorite when the money went All in, the Return should have been $10,400 in my favor, a difference of $1200 not the $800 as the EV graph shows.

We actually played 50 games but i didn't include 4 games because it could not be calculated clearly like i did with the other 46 games where either player was favorite and covered the other player in chips.

So the EV graph is saying my EV is -$800 vs this opponent, but the true win EV should have been $1200

so hmm

Not trying to say the EV graphs are misleading and bagging them just trying to learn more about them and this example clearly to me shows that its doing it wrong

Your approach is very inaccurate.
The approach done by PT4 or HEM2 is much better but still not the full story even in Hyper HUSnGs where allins are very common.
The way PT4 or HEM2 calculates adjusted chip ev is reasonable and can give some better indication of the quality of your play in HUSnG's but you do have to understand what the data means.

Why do you say the way i calculated it is very inaccurate?

If i was favorite to win the hand and lost it - really the game should have ended right there and i should have collected the 1st prize.

All i simply done was go through the hands doing it this way

I know its totally different to the way Hm2 and Pt4do it but i don't see how its inaccurate.

Because being 51% favourite and 100% favourite are two very different things. Also since when do we need 50% equity to make a good call?

I'm not talking about equity, instead if i get my money in as favorite having the player covered in chip say AQ vs AJ pre or any flop where i am ahead or turn, i should have won that game, which was the case in the 46 hand example i done.

No you shouldn't have won that game, you win that game about 70% of the time in teh case of AJ.

Unless you have 100% equity you shouldn't win that game all the time so therefore assuming equity advantage = game won is really bad.