Hey guys,

I wanted to know how the ev graph is calculated.

This is the example:

https://gyazo.com/a90690d29ae5b1c0d61e9a474bf7d498

Chips at the start:
551

Preflop action:
I get in 370 chips preflop.

Postflop:
I get in 181 chips.

Equ:
Preflop(840 chips): 66,795%
Flop(1202 chips): 13,698%

Ok. Now i have the question. Is it right that the ev is now (0,13896*1202)-551=-386,35

I mean that makes no sense. What is even the point of the ev graph then?
It is 5 card plo and my opponents call on avg with worst hand preflop. So what is the point of the ev graph when the preflop action is not in the calculation? You dont see if you run bad because the flop comes always in the favor of your opponent.


Why is it nor calculated like that?:

(0,6695*840)-370=+176,03
(0,13896*362)-181=-130,7
-130,7+176,03=45,33

From my perspective that would make much more sense.
Why?

Lets make another example in NLHE:
Imagine this scenario:

We have 10 times aces and starting stack 1k$ HU.
And for what ever reason we know that our opponent calls always preflop no matter what but never calls all ins preflop.
Obv our strategy is to put the maximum amount of money in the pot, so we always raise to 999$ preflop and put 1$ on the flop.

Now imagine the flop is always aaa and our opponent has everytime a2o.

Calculations(tracker method):

Pot 2k
2000*0=0
0-1000=-1000
10*-1000=-10.000$
Our ev line is -10k and if we show it to any poker player they would say that you are a uber fish.

Calculations(alternative method):

1998*0,8=1598,4
1598,4-1000=+598,4
2*0=0
0-2=-2
598,4*10-2*10=+5964$


So what is the better method to estimate your skill?
5 card Plo is and extreme complex game and the ev line is(or was) a good method for me to estimate how good my strategy is.
But, as we see, the ev line has no meaning at all if you run bad when it comes to the variance how the cards come on the flop.

Now again: Is my tracker calculating the ev right or is it wrong and other tracker calculate it like i would?
Also I would like to know if there is any way to fix it and use my method?

The EV stat in most trackers only indicates how much your result was above/below the average expected return when you got all in.

e.g. If you get all in with a chance to win 100bb or lose 100bb, and you have 80% equity, then your actual EV is 60bb (100 * 0.80 - 100 * 0.20 = 60), but you either win 100bb (making you 40bb above EV), or you lose 100bb (making you 40bb below EV).

The EV stat doesn't show how lucky you are overall. Nor does it have anything to do with the action on previous streets.

In the long run, about 50% of players will be above EV when all in, and 50% will be below. Skill has no effect on that. It's just random luck.

For the AAA example, the player with A2o has 100% equity (assuming the other guy doesn't have a backdoor royal flush draw), and he will always win the pot, so the "All in EV" stat will be 0, or whatever the total profit was. There is no luck involved. You get more extreme differences in the EV stat when someone has a huge suckout, like when they have a 5% chance of winning, but suck out and win 100% of the pot. In such a hand, they effectively ran 95% above EV. That's all the stat tells you. How much more or less you won/lost based on your equity when all in.

The ev line isn't some mythical perfect tracking number. It's just your results line with one single variable (ev differential after allin) removed. So it's a strictly better version of your results line for tracking expectation, but there will still be plenty of variance and you'll still need a substantial sample to accurately assess your ev.