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$EV Diff stat on Holdem Manager $EV Diff stat on Holdem Manager

09-24-2015 , 08:47 AM
I have looked on google about this and I understand what the stat is - basically the difference how much you should statistically win given your equity in the hand when you are all in compared to how much you actually win.

However could someone please explain to me, if I have big positive $EV diff stat amount does that mean I have lost or won more than I should have. I know we shouldn't look into this stat that much but I'm just can't find the answer on google and I'm curious to know.

Thanks
Steve
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09-24-2015 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baker87
However could someone please explain to me, if I have big positive $EV diff stat amount does that mean I have lost or won more than I should have. I know we shouldn't look into this stat that much but I'm just can't find the answer on google and I'm curious to know.
You won more than you "should" have. For a simple example, I'll just use 1 hand.

Say you're playing 100NL and have AA, and manage to get all in against KK preflop. You're about an 82% favorite to win, the total pot is $200, so you "should" win $164. Poker being poker, though, you either win the whole pot and run $36 over EV, or you lose the whole pot and run $164 below EV.

Running over $EV overall just means you've won a lot of hands you weren't 100% to win.
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09-24-2015 , 01:37 PM
Depending on your tracker and the way the stat is reported, a positive "EV diff" could mean you ran above expectation... or the precise opposite. It's a very confusing stat.
In the HEM reports, I think a positive EV diff actually means you ran below EV, and a negative EV diff means you ran above EV. It's counter-intuitive, so I try to ignore that stat. I tend to think of the stat as a "message" to the graph-building functions. If it says, for example, that the EV diff for a particular session is -1.85, it means "The orange line on the graph should drop 1.85 in relation to the green line for this session, because hero won more than expected". If the EV diff number is positive, the orange line should be above the green line by that amount, since you ran badly.

The graph itself is much more intuitive. On that, if your green line is below the orange line, you've run badly in All In hands, since the orange line shows your "expected winnings" if you'd had "average luck".
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09-24-2015 , 02:02 PM
Yeah it appears you're right - a postive $EV diff stat in HoldemManager means the opposite to what you expect. I looked at a hand where I was all in with AA with 90% equity, and lost - the $EV Diff stat was positive for that hand.

I'm trying to work out how to upload an image of my graph from a jpeg on my computer but can't work out how to do it.

My stats show a profit of $97.30 and an $EV Diff of $43.64 (positive) in HoldemManager.

Does this mean I have been unlucky in general over my whole sample?
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09-24-2015 , 02:16 PM
If you go to the graph page and right-click, there should be something labeled "print-friendly save". You can open and right-click that and save it as a PNG file. You can then upload it to Photobucket/imageshack/gyazo or whatever and put it in the stats thread. This is explained in the FAQ at the top of the forum, I think.

I think you've run fairly badly, as your winnings would have been about 50% higher if you'd run according to equity in all ins. Is the orange line way above the green one? That's running bad for you. :/

P.S. Since the "EV diff" stat is so confusing, I generally ignore that and add the Evbb/100 stat to HEM reports, as that's a better long-term indicator of what your 'true/theoretical' winrate is likely to be, and it's so much easier to understand.
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09-24-2015 , 02:45 PM


My bb/100 is 5.46 and my EV bb/100 is 7.87

Thanks arty - are you Artysmokes on PSO by any chance? Anyway much appreciated.

Is there anything else particularly bad about my graph? I'm guessing the main worry is my blue showdown line right? Does that mean I make too many bad calls on the river?

Last edited by Baker87; 09-24-2015 at 03:02 PM.
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09-25-2015 , 05:20 PM
Oh, you're sjb. Hi!
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05-18-2020 , 04:08 PM
what about positive $ev graph but for tournaments and sngs? (hm2)

does that stat mean the same as it means in the cash games graph?
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05-18-2020 , 06:41 PM
More of less, yes. In SNGs, if you run above $EV, it generally means you ran well in the flips in the end game. e.g. Winning more often as a favourite when you got all in when heads up, or sucking out a bit more often than your equity would 'predict', such that you got 1st place more often than you would if you ran "averagely".
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