Would like to get your thoughts on the hand especially the EV calculation.

I'd say my pre-flop call was a little loose but I was getting about 2.5/1. Shoving on the flop seemed liked the right play but would like to see the EV calc for it.

I know its a bit tedious but would really appreciate any feedback.


Pre-Flop: AJs v Top2% (AA-QQ, AKoAKs)
Pokerstove 30%v70%

Flop: 52%v48%

.15(320) + .85(.52(320+270)-.48(370) N.B 52% v 48% is AJs v Top2% on the flop

48 + .85(307 - 178)

48 + 110 = 158

EV = +159

seems about right. you've got 15 outs to anything he can sensibly have and they should all win barring spots where he redraws to a boat, and that's enough to make it more or less a flip. easy shove

Do we have a read on SB's squeeze or 3b%?

I'd like to have a reasonable idea of those before we can say if folding pre would be the best option but it also makes assigning ranges a little easier to which will have an impact on EV calcs (ie we can't just assign QQ+/AK without knowing).

Also, why are we assigning 15% for your FE on that flop? Without knowing what ranges villain will 3b with out of the blinds when they can squeeze we can't really ascertain our FE otf (eg if SB is ultra-tight to the range you put them on then 15% is likely too low given they have either an over-pair or top set most likely while if they will squeeze light with something like 78s then they may have an FE of 70% on that flop).

That said, your calculations are correct from what I can see (based on your assumptions) and it was an easy shove.

The pot is 3.20 + 1 when we shove, so I think your calculations are all a bit off.

^^^ what zumby said

Shouldn't it be:

.15(420) + .85(.52(420+270)-.48(370))

which = +217
(ie. +$2.17)

(assuming we're happy with 'he folds 15%, calls 85%'; not saying we shouldn't be, but it's another assumption ldo)