So I was playing a 18 player sng on stars last night. I played a hand which I discussed with a friend of mine afterwards as a pure nobrainer. But then I got to thinking about the hand and how no decision in poker is as simple as it first might seem.

More than anything else, I really need some practice in these types of calculations and validation that I'm doing it right.

Villain in this hand is a passive player running 52/4/0.47 over 50 hands. I know this player loves suited cards and limps almost anything on the CO/button. Furthermore, I've seen the overshove twice before, once over the top of a raise preflop which turned out to be QQ and once on the turn after raising preflop (no showdown).

Poker Stars $6.00+$0.60 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t5835 M = 38.90
UTG: t1255 M = 8.37
CO: t3355 M = 22.37
BTN: t3685 M = 24.57
Hero (SB): t2455 M = 16.37

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is SB with 7 K
1 fold, CO calls t100, BTN calls t100, Hero calls t50, BB checks

Flop: (t400) K 8 6 (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets t300, BTN folds, Hero calls t300, BB folds

Turn: (t1000) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t2955 all in, Hero calls t2055 all in

River: (t5110) T (2 players - 2 are all in)


Poker Stars $6.00+$0.60 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t5835 M = 38.90
UTG: t1255 M = 8.37
CO: t3355 M = 22.37
BTN: t3685 M = 24.57
Hero (SB): t2455 M = 16.37

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is SB with 7 K
1 fold, CO calls t100, BTN calls t100, Hero calls t50, BB checks

Flop: (t400) K 8 6 (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets t300, BTN folds, Hero calls t300, BB folds

Turn: (t1000) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets t2955 all in, Hero calls t2055 all in

River: (t5110) T (2 players - 2 are all in)


The range I assign to this player is pretty narrow. AA would raise preflop, can't be KK. 88, 66, K2s+, K9o is pretty much it, I considered if it could be a strong draw but decided against it based on how passively this player is in general and the times he/she played draws it was in a passive fashion.

I think it's safe to assume that a bad player like this will overvalue the turned trips even if the kicker is a deuce. It looks like a call when I punch in the numbers.

cEV=(0.432*3055)-(0.567*2055)
cEV=1319-1165
cEV=154


Is it that simple?

Given the range you assign him you have 25% equity on the turn when you call.

88,66,K2s+,K9o

.25 x 5110 - 2055 = -ev 777

equity x total pot - call = ev

edited i got the total pot wrong on first one.

Fold pre-flop. Not worth it given stack sizes IMO

As played lead the flop.

As played yea call the turn shove I guess.


You're getting 3 to 2or 1.5 to 1 so you need 40% equity for a chip ev breakeven calll

I really need to work on this. The problem with my initial calculation is that I neglected to punch in the board Just didn't seem right and that's understandable

Thanks for showing how the calculation is done properly. I'm not even there if I add all offsuit kings and a spade/straight draw. I also figured out just now that I had included AKs/AKo which I meant to exclude from his range. I'm learning!

Your welcome im far from an expert myself we all learn from each other.

I agree about preflop and this is something that I'm working on. I keep falling back in a poor behavior playing from the small blind.

As for the flop, a lead is probably best. I suspect I have put myself in an uncomfortable spot here with a 23,5bb stack that I'm playing passively hoping to see the next card.

Calling the turn shove is the biggest error though, this guy pretty much always have me beat unless when he's holding a Kxs with a worse kicker.


About your statement that I need 40% when the odds is 1.5:1, how did you come up with that? I know how to calculate whether to call or fold but it would take way too long while on the tables. Is it merely a matter of playing around with the stove so much that it becomes instinctive? If you or someone else reading this could elaborate some on "crunshing the numbers". Getting from odds to percentages quickly, how is that best done? I would be very thankful for any help with this.

I very much doubt your going to be making complicated mathmatical decisions at the tables in play your just going to learn with playing with poker stove and evaluating hands afterwards. Overtime youll going to know what sort of equity you have in certain spots against certain villains.

40% is the closest % to a break even call im guessing he played around with a calculator to get the break even point either that or hes a maths genius or i could just be crap at math and need a calulator myself.

Simplest way to get there is to divide the 2nd number in the ratio by the sum of both numbers. So, the ratio we're working with here is 1.5:1. So it looks like this:

1/(1.5+1)
1/2.5 = .4 or 40%

There are certain ratios that you should just have memorized, like for 2:1 you need 33% equity, for 3:1 you need 25% equity. But this is a handy tool if the odds fall somewhere in between.

Thanks for this very handy tip!