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Double-or-nothing SnGs - expected winrate? Double-or-nothing SnGs - expected winrate?

06-04-2014 , 09:32 AM
I only had experience with cash games till now, and it's fun to play, but I am stuck at 4BB/100 (and that at NL4 zoom!).

I played a few double-or-nothing SnGs recently (exchanged some bwin points into tickets). It seemed surprisingly easy to win, although the sample size was miniscule - I played about 20 I think and managed to double up in 70% of all games. Coming from zoom poker, the games appear incredibly soft

I am wondering if these SnGs promise a higher winrate in the long term than cash games. To be profitable at cash games, you need to be better than 80-90% of the field. To be profitable at double-or-nothing SnGs, you just need to be better than 50%. So it appears to be a better choice for a mediocre player like me, who is better than the average player, but doesn't quite belong to the profitable top 20%.

I understand there is a lot of collusion and other cheating going on in SnGs, but I would expect less of that at DoN, since the prize structure is so flat.

Does anyone have experience with this SnG format, and how is the expected winrate, compared to cash games?
Double-or-nothing SnGs - expected winrate? Quote
06-04-2014 , 09:51 AM
there is more room for collusion in DoN

you need too win 55% of games too turn profit

(the same blunt advice I was given when I asked about this)
Double-or-nothing SnGs - expected winrate? Quote
06-04-2014 , 09:52 AM
DoNs get reg infested at pretty low stakes, so it gets harder to win as you move up. They also have a fairly different strategy from normal SNGs, so you have to put some effort in to win at them.

Your small winrate at 4NL probably has more to do with rake than ability, keep grinding until you can move up and things should get better.
Double-or-nothing SnGs - expected winrate? Quote
06-04-2014 , 10:54 AM
Yeah, your reasoning is way off.

DoNs require significantly more than 50% win rate due to rake. (Exact amount depends on rake and rakeback).

They're collusion and bot magnets because the game is all about the bubble and bubble manipulation. Never, ever, play DoNs on a site you're not 100% confident in their ability to police the game.

They also tend to top off at very low stakes - Check if there are any running above $20, or even $10 depending on the site.

DoN strategy is also very specialized and specific. Given you're coming from ZOOM you probably have no idea what you're doing and just ran hotter than inferno sauce. DoNs can be very deceptive that way due to the importance of the bubble and the associated variance of the bubble breaking.
Double-or-nothing SnGs - expected winrate? Quote
06-04-2014 , 02:50 PM
Micro DoNs are easy money. Just win one decent sized hand, then sit back and let the fish knock eachother out (essentially). For small stakes and higher you need a good DoN strategy and RB/low rake to profit. I'm currently using the micros to build my roll and then leaving the DoNs.
Double-or-nothing SnGs - expected winrate? Quote

      
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