Does the 6max EV chart really suggest it's incorrect to fold out of the SB in unopened pots? - Beginning Poker Questions

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Does the 6max EV chart really suggest it's incorrect to fold out of the SB in unopened pots?

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06-02-2017 , 02:05 PM

Bad Beat Bill

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http://holdemindicator.com/ev6players.php

If I fold a hand out of the small blind, then my EV that hand is either -0.4BB or -0.5BB (depending on blind structure)

However, according to this chart, there are no hands which "average" that amount of negative EV out of the small blind. It says that over some (assumedly decent sample), even 32o is "only" -0.31BB on average. Which implies that it is not correct to just fold this hand out of the SB regardless of action (as I do with this and most other trash hands).

Does this mean it's incorrect to just fold garage out of the SB? Or does this sample size account for some uh...non-optimal strategy?

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06-02-2017 , 03:05 PM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,520

Well, is -0.31 better than -0.5?

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06-02-2017 , 03:11 PM

Bad Beat Bill

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Yes? Not sure what you're saying here. If a hand has a greater EV than -0.5, that means that people are playing it for a greater profit than just folding it out of the SB every time, as I do. I feel like I'm not getting something.

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06-02-2017 , 05:31 PM

Didace

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Folding is 0.0

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06-02-2017 , 05:35 PM

PokerPhilosopher

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Well, you'll be out of position, making it harder to realize your equity. And if you make any mistakes postflop, it will probably turn a slightly +EV preflop limp into a -EV play. Theoretically though, if you play perfectly, maybe it is +EV.

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06-02-2017 , 11:25 PM

Kelvis

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Folding is 0.0

Yes that's probably true. Which means 32o is still correct to fold in the SB obviously since it has a negative expectation.

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06-03-2017 , 12:00 AM

WereBeer

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I'm very dubious about this chart, AA has EV of 2bb? Because it should be way higher than that.

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06-03-2017 , 02:45 AM

PokerPhilosopher

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Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 1,086

Just saw that link. Apparently that chart is based on players' data? I would be dubious too. But I'm not sure how to even interpret those winrates from the blinds. I would guess that those winrates would include the blinds posted. So a -0.3 bb/100 would be a good result, since if you folded, you would be at -0.5 bb/100.

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in this chart though, as the site clearly tells you not to take it at face value, but to use your knowledge of poker with the chart.

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06-03-2017 , 02:55 AM

Sil3ntness

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Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 1,327

It obviously depends on who's in the Big blind too.

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06-03-2017 , 09:23 AM

#10

Bad Beat Bill

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Didace

Folding is 0.0

you sure? if it doesn't include money that's already-posted this seems to imply that people are making tons of mistakes from the blinds.

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06-03-2017 , 01:01 PM

#11

ArtyMcFly

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Quote:

Originally Posted by WereBeer

I'm very dubious about this chart, AA has EV of 2bb? Because it should be way higher than that.

I think it's based on results of fixed limit holdem games in the early 2000s.

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06-03-2017 , 05:05 PM

#12

WereBeer

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly

I think it's based on results of fixed limit holdem games in the early 2000s.

Good pick up, that makes sense. Of course, this also makes the chart inapplicable to modern NLHE, though the actual rankings don't look totally out of whack. You can see sample size taking a toll on accuracy as well, AQss outperforms AKss from some but not all positions.

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