Did the villain think he was ahead in this hand? - Beginning Poker Questions

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Did the villain think he was ahead in this hand?

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03-29-2008 , 09:40 AM

bowlman628

adept

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 764

Poker Stars $3.00+$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1000/t2000 Blinds - 4 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BTN: t21704
Hero (SB): t19209
BB: t19530
CO: t7057

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with T

1 fold, BTN raises to t4000, Hero raises to t19109 all in, 1 fold, BTN calls t15109

Flop: (t40618) 6

(2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t40618) 4

(2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t40618) 4

(2 players - 1 is all in)

Spoiler:

Why does he go to battle with the 2nd place chip leader? with a hand AT BEST is a coinflip. I dont make this shove with Q10 or worse! is that what he thinks? Does he take my play as a complete bluff where his QJ is good? What types of thoughts go thru the villains mind?

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03-29-2008 , 10:18 AM

Malefiicus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,417

You have to stop assuming your opponents are intelligent enough to think about what you have. At that level they probably aren't putting you on anything, the guy probably just went "QJ QJ QJ NUTTTTTTZZZZ" and happily called.

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03-29-2008 , 10:23 AM

Curlee1987

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 514

u want the call, dont fret too much over it. at this level they're simply not thinking about what u might have, they see 2 pictures cards and think they have already won the pot. u got the money in ahead and thats the main thing. ur goin to ocme up against A LOT of players like this so get used to it im afraid.

A10 has a funny way of losing to KQ, KJ, QJ for some unknown reason

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03-29-2008 , 11:00 AM

B C

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 21

Lower stake games this will always happen. Another reason is basically the stakes are low so they don't care if they lose there money, so they play very agressive. Which is how they usually get the large chip stack.

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03-29-2008 , 11:26 AM

Lateksi

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 853

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curlee1987

u want the call, dont fret too much over it

actually, you have more chip EV when villain folds, you're not that much ahead (55% favourite i.e. flipaments)

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03-29-2008 , 12:04 PM

xBornToLosex

disturbing

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 8,848

donkaments, ldo

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03-29-2008 , 12:08 PM

Curlee1987

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 514

Quote:

actually, you have more chip EV when villain folds, you're not that much ahead (55% favourite i.e. flipaments)

can u explain this please. not saying you are wrong, and i thikn i understand but can u explain y.

even, if u have got more ev here, u still want to gt ur money in ahead surely?

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03-29-2008 , 12:30 PM

sputum

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,435

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curlee1987

can u explain this please. not saying you are wrong, and i thikn i understand but can u explain y.

even, if u have got more ev here, u still want to gt ur money in ahead surely?

Villain's call with QJs is correct from a pot odds standpoint if OP exposes his hand (he's getting the price he needs) so from that perspective OP would rather he folded.
We aren't told if this was the final table but quick gedankenexperiment - we'll pretend this was a 9-man SNG.
What happens on this hand irrespective of the results?
The two players not in the hand get a huge increase in likelihood and size of payout. That increase comes from both players in the hand (it must come from somewhere

) It either becomes 3-handed and everyone left wins or there is a tiny shortstack now 4th and about to die, so everyone else probably wins.

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03-29-2008 , 12:35 PM

Lateksi

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 853

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curlee1987

can u explain this please. not saying you are wrong, and i thikn i understand but can u explain y.

sure

if villain folds, our EV is 7000 (blinds plus his raise)
if villain calls, our EV is (19109+19109+2000)*0.55-18109 = 4010.9 (what we stand to gain if we win times our equity, minus our wager)

i think i got it right?

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even, if u have got more ev here, u still want to gt ur money in ahead surely?

I'm not sure what you're asking here, obviously we want to get our money in ahead instead of getting it in behind, I'm just saying we actually prefer him folding instead of calling

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03-29-2008 , 12:45 PM

#10

Curlee1987

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 514

ok thanks for explaining it, not sure what i was asking about either tbh, lol, bit of a mind freeze.

think i was saying that ur still goin to be happy with the call, because ur ahead, but obviously that is situation specific to the size of the pot, etc.

thanks

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03-29-2008 , 01:27 PM

#11

sputum

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,435

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curlee1987

You would not be happy with the call. You would much much much rather he fold. You have >40% chance of going out and getting zilch/not a lot (it all depends on the prize structure to a large extent) and doubling up may well not increase your $$$ expectation enough to make up for the times this happens.

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