This hand has been bugging me for awhile, so I would like your thoughts on whether or not I made the right move "at the time". I know you guys will be brutily honest with me. I know NOW that if I had not folded the pair of 9's in the hole I would have won a very nice pot, but at the time it seemed the correct thing to do. So, I mucked it. Review this hand history and then after it, I will go over some of my thinking at the time. Then, please let me know what you think. I was playing as stuporman1 on pokerstars.


PokerStars Game #18782367586: Tournament #94924181, $0.25+$0.00 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVI (15000/30000) - 2008/07/13 - 03:35:54 (ET)
Table '94924181 281' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 3: daddywolf (902428 in chips)
Seat 4: hojosa30 (422201 in chips)
Seat 5: jonycat (467023 in chips)
Seat 7: stuporman1 (445496 in chips)
Seat 8: chipstalker6 (471297 in chips)
Seat 9: jdp12 (2163555 in chips)
daddywolf: posts the ante 3000
hojosa30: posts the ante 3000
jonycat: posts the ante 3000
stuporman1: posts the ante 3000
chipstalker6: posts the ante 3000
jdp12: posts the ante 3000
jonycat: posts small blind 15000
stuporman1: posts big blind 30000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to stuporman1 [9h 9d]
chipstalker6: raises 438297 to 468297 and is all-in
jdp12: raises 1692258 to 2160555 and is all-in
daddywolf: folds
hojosa30: folds
jonycat: folds
stuporman1: folds
Uncalled bet (1692258) returned to jdp12
chipstalker6 said, "gg all"
*** FLOP *** [Qh Kc 7s]
*** TURN *** [Qh Kc 7s] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [Qh Kc 7s 6h] [2d]
jdp12 said, "yes"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
chipstalker6: shows [8d Ah] (high card Ace)
jdp12: shows [Ac 9c] (high card Ace - King+Queen+Nine kicker)
jdp12 collected 999594 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 999594 | Rake 0
Board [Qh Kc 7s 6h 2d]
Seat 3: daddywolf folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: hojosa30 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: jonycat (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: stuporman1 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: chipstalker6 showed [8d Ah] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 9: jdp12 showed [Ac 9c] and won (999594) with high card Ace


These are some of the thoughts that went through my head at the time.

Reasons for calling:
1) If I win, I put myself in second place at around 1.5 mil in chips within a
few hundred thousand of the leader.
1) It would knock out one opponent (or cripple him at
least) moving me up the pay scale in the tourney (at least fourth
place).
2) To win a tourney I know that you have to have the balls to
just "shove 'em in" and take your chances. This was one of those
moments. I have won small tourneys before, so I know I have what it
takes.
3) A pair of 9's preflop would have a decent pot equity three-way.

4) They could have cards that counterfeit each other, thus reducing the
outs against me.
5) They could have pairs smaller than me thus making me a favorite.

Reasons to fold:
1) A pair of 9's is strong heads-up, but with two all-ins already, the more
players in the greater chance an overcard to my hand will hit the board.
I didn't think that an overpair in the hole was likley, but it is always
possible: A's,K's,Q's, J's, or 10's could be out there.

I thought it was more likely that each opponent had two high cards against me. Hands such as AK, AQ, Aj, A10, KQ, KJ, K10, QJ, Q10, J10 were another possiblity too and if each opponent had one, then I could be facing FOUR overcards and having 12 outs against me! Not counting straight and flush posibilities which would be small.

2) If big-stack knocks out smaller stack, I move up one level on the pay scale.

3) Better opportunities for me will present themselves over time when I have better position, and I am the first into the pot giving me two ways to win, not just one.

Afterthoughts: In hindsight, I should have called. I would have been in great position in second place with one less opponent to worry about. My adversaries had two counterfeiting aces with rag cards.

However, if you didn't know what the outcome would be what would you do and why? Please, I want to learn from this experience. Was I right or was I wrong?

Thanks, Stuporman

Super easy standard fold. You have almost 15 big blinds. "taking some chances" doesn't mean calling two all-ins with mid-pockets when you're in no real danger from the blinds yet.

Second that

Really easy fold.

yeah correct fold.

Yep. You're just being results oriented because you know you would have won after the fact.

btw, if you use the hand converter when you post your hands they are much easier to read.

Yea, I guess I am being results oriented. It was bugging me because if I had called I probably would have won more cash. I can't look at it that way. Thanks.

I don't think its -super- easy fold. How loose/aggressive has the big stack been? He's gotta have a big hand or bigger balls to shove over an all-in. Decent fold but if he's been shoving say every 3rd hand PF, I'd consider a call.

Don't be results oriented.

Good fold.

UTG open shoved for 15.5 BB's and tthe big stack shoved over that. What do you think he has?

99 is behind even 77+,AJ+,KQ. And I don't really think he's shoving over a slightly large shove from UTG that loose at all.

How can a pair of 9's be behind a pair of 7's ??

It's behind that total range, not each hand individually in the range.

Asked and answered.

Good points. 6-handed in a $0.25 tourney... I like my 99 a lot but I do agree it's a fold here.

How shallow would you need to be to consider a call here, in your opinion?

Even for a cheap tournament, I would have folded... (most times)!

im wondering why 'chipstalker' pushes UTG with A8os when hes in no desperate situation to warrant doing that??

ldo, he's stalking chips

i think thats a definite fold, in the face of a raise all in and a call, u have to put at least one of them on a higher pair. so fair play, good fold, save your chips for a better spot.

Insta fold.

I think Mr. Skalansky even makes an argument for laying down AA in this situation. (I'm assuming this is final table in a large tournament.)

no... I really don't think so, why would you lay down AA here?

Nobody is laying down AA here

you are simply never folding AA in this spot, and in this position in the tourny. Sklansky only made the point that IF you are already on the FT, and in the larger money, u MIGHT consider laying down AA, if the other short stack (and maybe another) is all in, and you have a chance to move up the money ladder a notch or 2.
Even then there are counter arguments. Just my two penneth.......

G

In this situation folding AA would suck....like really really bad.

Really? If jdp takes out chipstalker, then hero advances from (at worst) 6th place finish to a (at worst) 5th place finish. Without risking a single chip!

And jdp has a huge stack so if he takes out chipstalker he only increases his stack by about 20%. So the hero is not creating (any more of) a chip monster by letting jdp have a free ride to take out chipstalker.

I would play AA here because I want to win the whole tournament. But I think there may be real $$$ to be won here by simply letting the two all-ins in front of the hero duke it out.

Yea really.

18,570,975,192 games 31.500 secs 589,554,768 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.350% 13.66% 00.69% 2537431920 127523532.00 { 77+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 14.106% 13.09% 01.02% 2430669144 188899752.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 71.544% 70.11% 01.43% 13020294264 266156580.00 { AA }





Folding this to maybe move from 6th to 5th is pretty bad assuming it's not a crazy weird pay structure.