Just do this and you'll be fine in no time

Because this is a rather beginner topic.

Make your decisions based on ICM, not on whether or not your hand is the favorite.

Oh, and don't forget bankroll management. Pretty sure no one said that already but it's rather important I guess.

This

ICM is apparently not a very sound strategy, according to a lot of people I've spoken with... it has its limitations..

I am starting to turn things around,.. thanks for all the great advice..

(and the picture of Nelson from the Simpsons helps)

What? I have no idea of the qualifications these "people" have but they are 100% wrong or leveling you. You are doomed to being Mr. Bubble Bust Out without a solid understanding of ICM. Run that idea past the MTT Strat forum. Currently your only chance of cashing is to luck box your way in as a short stack and loose before the big money. THIS is ONE of your significant leaks. Over confidence is another IMO. You were just running hot-it is all an illusion.

Good Luck. Hope things turn around for you but you need to open your mind up a bit. Creative and lucky is good but some fundamentals need to be applied. The game has changed a lot in the last couple years also-what worked last year isn't "sound" today in many cases.

I agree with your buying in to higher dollar tournaments being a mistake. I play SNG's and puke those profits in big MTT's. Rinse and repeat. I regularly re-deposit 10 BI's and take a shot. Bankroll management is important if roll building is your goal and you have an aversion to re-upping. I'm just playing for fun hoping to take down a big one some day. I have no delusions of being "good". I just try to make fewer and fewer mistakes.

Variance gg

Glad I could help.

Ok, Im willing to "open my mind" to possibility that I was running good, but obviosly I couldnt be a total donkey to run up for $100 to $4000... playing mostly $10 stuff.. took some skill, a lot of players cant even do that..

But ok, I will study ICM model,.. is the ICM bible that Moshman book on SNG strategy? Or did it come from somewhere else?

Thanks,

RB

have a sexy time with teh hookaz

scream out "hold?" before busto

get back to the tables and play teh pokaz

I suggest a trip to the MTT forums for info on ICM (you'll have to dig a little for it) and other useful information. Just relax, read some stuff or maybe get a free trial at a training site. Then deposit a couple hundy and see what happens. Also, SNG's might help you get your MOJO back. Just a thought. Works for me.

Best wishes!

Man, binging on anything is bad news and bad karma. From 2k to 300$, i've done it before, drunken playing, waking up and i'm broke

I read the basic ICM explanation on that forum, and found it extremely confusing. It makes so many assumptions, and ridiculous statements like,

"if we assume that vilain only shoves with 22-AA, and folds all other hands, we can assign a fold equity of blah blah blah"...

There is no way we can assign mathematical values to our opponents tendencies! Most of the SNG people we encounter are random people who we barely know for a period of more then 30 minutes... even if you had them "figured out", I don't always follow the same shoving and folding behaviour, it can even change depending on mood sometimes for certain people..

How can ICM possibly be some sort of practical solution to avoid bubbling? The math is complicated and the assumptions are multiple..

For a "beginner" to SNG math, I'm completely lost..

Do you really expect to just read a couple posts and understand everything?

Icm is a valuable tool for tourney/sng players and is very important. Yes you can donk your way to a couple cashes or final tables or even a couple 1st places....but consistency is a goal if you want to make money and icm is a valuable tool.

I'm assuming you don't understand much about hand ranges then?

You're right, I dont understand "ranges", unless you study someone's tendencies for a very long period of time and collect statistics on them...

You might assume a solid player has a better range, but they can be tricky and mix-it up sometimes, or they can go on tilt and lower their range sometimes..

No, I don't expect to understand this instantly, but right now I dont understand it at all..

You're supposed to fold AK sometimes and figure out equity and ranges on the fly, how is this possible?

Does ICM state you would fold AA in some situations?

One screwed-up bull right now...

Raging Bull

study and actually learn the game?

I understand your difficulty "understanding" ICM. It is a complicated formula to start with that does require you to make assumptions. BUT-that is not how we play in real life-whipping out a laptop for some quick calculations-at least I don't. I try to understand it from a conceptual standpoint then make your plays based on both your understanding of ICM and all the other stuff you know and feel at that moment. It does tell you clearly when you should start shoving/calling/folding vs. your opponents if you understand hand ranges as mentioned. For what it is worth I am more feel than math and I have a positive ROI in STT's up to 24.00. And I am not good compared to almost anyone around here IMO.

There is no perfect solution that I'm aware of or it wouldn't be a game anymore. You seem smart enough to work through ICM and hand range concepts. If I can semi do it anyone can.

an excerpt from Zen and the Art of Poker, which I highly recommend:

Page 132

Poker Rule #82: Be very careful when you are flush with maney from a big win.

Now I'm going to tell you a secret: You WILL lose that money back. I don't mean gradually, bit by bit, over time - I mean a large, serious chunk of it, all at once. And there won't be much you can do to stop it. Bad luck will play a major part in this episode, of course. But also, maybe you are feeling just loose enough to try a few things you ordinarily wouldn't - a higher-limit game perhaps? Maybe even another game. Craps, Roulette? Whatever it is, you're not too worried because you've got this thick bnkroll stuffed in your pocket - you can feel the weight of it there, like a hand grenade. But as a direct result of this attitude, your bankroll goes down, down . . . almost seemingly in answer to this carefree approach.

How am I able to say with such certainty that you will lose a significant chunk of this money back? Because things have gotten too easy - they are proceeding along quite smoothly indeed. And its never that easy. If it is, something is wrong. Something is out of whack. And this will readjust itself in the near future.

A genius quote! The irony is that I have Zen and the Art of Poker on my shelf

So is there a push/fold chart based on the ICM? Or do you just have to study the model in a conceptual way and then apply it generally?

It sounds to me like all this complicated ICM math is just a way of saying "dont take risks when you dont have to"...

Anyhow, clearly I'm looking for that thing that is gonna give me an edge over my opponents cause I'm sick of bubbling and not knowing what to do with certain marginal hands and marginal situations..

And I've been calling or going all-in with AK about 100% of the time I get it, maybe I'm thinking that isnt correct...

That is essentially it. Take the Double or Nothing tournaments. Say there are 7 players and you have a relatively big stack. Lets say you stacked two players at once and have a huge chip lead. Based on the way these games play, it is correct to fold almost every starting hand, including hands like JJ or QQ, maybe even KK and AA, depending on the blind level and stack sizes of the other players

Most tournaments pay 3-5 spots, depending on the size.. I cant tighten up so much that Im folding AK in a lot of these situations, cause I'll just be blinded out, especially if they are turbos.

I understand theoretically why you might need to fold AK, but down near the bubble, I cant see folding it and expecting to make the money..

still confused..