Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeodan
As a general rule, when counting your outs, always remove at least a few.
If you have 9 outs, but one pairs the board, so you only have 8 outs.
Maybe your opponent could be holding one of your outs? That leaves only 7.
Feel free to explain it better instead of just coming in here to **** on me.
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The contention that your opponent may have one of your outs means you should lower the outs number can be shown to be faulty reasoning.
Here’s a simple example. Assume a four card deck -A K Q J. One card is to dealt to you and villain. The chance you will dealt an ace is 1/4 ignoring what villain has.
If one card is dealt to villain, then the chance you will be dealt an ace is
Pr(You get ace) = Pr(V has an ace)*0 + Pr(V has no ace)*1/3 = 1/4*0 + 3/4 * 1/3 = 1/4.
Villain having an ace reduces the chance you get it but that is balanced by the increased chance you do get the ace if it is not dealt to villain. The probability analysis shows that you can ignore villain’s holding assuming you have no knowledge of what he may have.