I'm in BB with 67 on a 994 board. 2 opponents.

I bet 9 into a 13 dollar pot. They both call.

Turn is 5

I check. Next player bets 18. Next player goes all-in for 28.

How do I think about outs in this situation?

You have 9 diamonds to the baby flush (the eight of diamonds for the sf), remaining 3 eights for the high straight, remaining 3 threes for the low. 15 outs. A sf combo draw is always 15 outs.

15 outs X 2 = 30+1 = 31% [approx. card odds]

Pot size is $86. You have to call $28 to win $86. Getting out the calculator will tell you that $28 is 32.558% of $86. Of course at the table, you simplify. Like $30 into $90 is 3:1 or 33%. For this call to be 'right' / 'profitable' / 'ev' - your card odds have to be equal or greater than the pot odds. You can see that its close, but pot odds dictate a fold here and since both villians are AI, there is no implied odds to consider.

All that said, I make the assumption that a pair isn't going to win at showdown, you have to hit the straight and/or flush (and it might not even be good).

You have precisely 0 clean outs.

But let's start by assuming, for the sake of argument, that all your flush and straight outs are good.

The pot has $86 and it's $28 to call. However, the turn bettor can't raise so we'll say you're getting 96/28 or 3.4:1 to call.

When all your outs are clean, you're a 2.92:1 dog to improve. On pot odds that suggests you call....BUT

But the action OTF and OTT suggest your outs are not good very often.

This is a very easy fold. You led at the paired flop and were called in 2 places. Now OTT a seemingly harmless 5 falls, you check (??? why after the flop lead, what were you repping???), and one caller bets and the other raises.

How do you think about outs here? You don't. You fold.

Isn't it 4 eights and 4 threes lefts as outs or am I missing something? That would make it(roughly) 34% of hitting it which is roughly 2:1 in odds. Hitting an out once for every three times.

That would mean that you would lose 28$(twice) to win 86$(once). 28$ x2 is 56$ which would make this a call(if one assumes the outs are all good).

I'm not putting you on the spot here or anything but this is how I think, so now I'm wondering if I'm thinking about it the wrong way? Maybe I have missed something?

One of the 4 eights and threes is a heart which was already counted in the 9 flush outs

Ah right forgot about that... But still wouldn't that make it more closer to 2:1 in odds and not 3:1?

You can only "fit" 30% in to a 100% 3 times and not 4? So it would be something 2,33:1 in odds?

Again I'm just wondering if my reasoning is correct here, not trying to offend anyone.

20% chance would be 4:1 in odds?

25% chance 3:1?

33% chance 2:1?

But maybe I have missed something again hehe.

It is easier to answer the question if we know the stack size of the hero and remaining villian. Also important to have an idea of villian's range. I want to assume that one players has a 9 in the hole. That would eliminate 6 outs.

We have 6 outs to the best straight, which is dead against a full house. I do think drawing to the 6th best flush is a not good idea three handed. If you and the remaining villian are deep, this is a good spot to fold out of position.

I actually goofed - there is no straight flush draw. So at best you have 9 outs to the flush and 8 to the straight, but Kurn makes a strong point.

Actually, I missed that the 3s also give him s straight. But I stand by my initial thought that the turn action suggests strongly that if he's not already drawing dead against a full house, he's up against a higher flush draw a pretty good % of the time.

My post was intended to focus on how to assess outs. For this exercise stack sizes don't matter. I agree stack sizes do matter when considering what action to take (for me stack size impacts the decision to 'not fold' more than it impacts the decision to fold – not folding incorporates implied odds where folding many times does not). However, that was not my question.

I posted this question in 3 forums and got the best, in depth, response from the Beginners Questions forum followed by the Probability forum. The Small Stakes NL forum yielded both the least number and poorest depth of analysis responses.

I think everyone made mistakes in their analysis including myself. Mistakes give some of your edge back to your opponents. This is a game of imperfect information. Isn't it in our best interest to accurately and correctly assess the information we do have?

There are two sides to every coin. You know those times when you have to call because you just don't know and you think that in the long run calling will show a profit. There must be a mirror image to that scenario where you just fold because you just don't know and in the long run you think you'll save money. There's never a guarantee in any one instance.

So, here goes my analysis. It's not perfect. No matter how good an analysis is, it can be improved.

When my $9 bet into a pot of $13 gets called in 2 places, I put at least one of my opponents on a 9. I'm pretty tight. They are pretty loose and not too savvy but they also aren't stupid. If they don't have a 9, they have to fear I do. Without specific reads on players I won't put a player on a better flush draw – those are just the breaks if I lose to a better flush – they'll often enough just have overs or A4.

But on the tun when the actions goes I check, bet 18, all-in for 28, I think they both have 9's.

I'm either convincing myself to fold or not.

If neither of them has 99, 94, 95, 44, 55, a single 9, 33, a pair greater than 6 or 7, or a better flush draw, then I have 21 outs.

If one of them has 98 and the other has 93, then I have 6 outs.

If one of them has 9x or 9x, then the diamond of the same rank as x is removed from my outs.

If one of them has a boat, then I have 0 outs.

For these reasons I fold. There's no reason to not be able to think like this at game speed. As for my reasoning, if it's not accurate and applicable, then being able to think like this at game speed only serves as a detriment to my game. I'm hoping all you all will help improve my thought process.

And:

1. The flop is a horrible spot to bet, why did you bet? When you bet what range of hands did you think were calling?
2. Why did you check the turn if you decided that you were to barrel/bluff on the flop?
3. Reads are a necessity to consider the range of Villains
4. Pre-flop action is a necessity to consider the range of Villains
5. Knowing the stack size of Villains are a necessity to discerning their range
6. Knowing the pre-flop action is a necessity to discerning their range
7. Knowing the range of Villains tells you how many outs you have

1. My flop bet needs to take it down ~40% of the time to break even. And it got the information I wanted for the rest of the hand.
2. Because I was called on the flop in two places. If one opponent folded I might barrel again, but not when they both call.
3. I can definitely do a better job with ranges - may be I do nothing with ranges now. But 9's are easily in both their ranges.
4. The flop went off 3 handed and had 13 dollars in it. I was the Big Blind. The Small Blind folded pf. What do you think the action was? I don't remember which opponent raised the minimum.
5. Wow, I'm not even close to capable of changing the ranges I put players on depending on their stack size. But I can see how that would help. I can't quite see myself doing it with any degree of proficiency.
6. See 4.
7. See 3.

Thanks ... sorry if I'm dumb or am missing an understanding. This is a hard game!

At what point did you tell anyone what size game this is? If this is (admittedly super deep stacked) 0.01/0.02, for example, then we don't know a lot about the action pre-flop, save that you all really liked your hands.

Can't hit 5d either as it would make someone a full house.

Results? In that spot, I expect many villians to show down x9 or an overpair JJ+ thinking its good. I discount a set of 4s or 5s. If they're loose, a fd or 94o or 95o for a boat or a measly 45o.

They both had 9's with crappy kickers - like 96 and 98. River blanked.

I know my image is tight. Against the right opponents in the right circumstances I can steel. But this is 1/2 with a $40 buy-in ... so the norm is you have to show down a winner to win the pot.

When my flop bet gets called in two places, I'm almost 100% sure at least one of them has a 9 or 44. I flop bet and the next guy calls ... I think it's terribly unlikely the next guy is going to call without a 9 or better. That's typical in this games ... if neither had a 9, I likely would have picked it up right there.

Min raises pf can mean anything from "what the heck, I think I'll raise" to "let's see what happens" to "let's build a pot and have some fun" to "the drop is so heavy I'm not playing this hand for a limp so I either raise min or fold".

I think I misfired with my flop bet because I saw I had a flush draw and thought semi-bluff. When they called (both called) I had to re-assess and then the thought process I outlined above (in previous posts) started to sink in - especially when they bet and raised the turn.

So, I folded ... but I thought it was an interesting hand and wanted to see if people think about outs in that kind of detail at game speed. I thought just asking sort of a quickie question would get 'first glance' responses. I was really interested in what first comes to mind - without pause to think about it.

Sorry to have frustrated some people ... to me, kurn gave the most applicable and helpful responses out of all across all 3 forums. I liked what Buzz had to say too. Thanks to everyone.

1-2 with a 20 BB buy-in.

Why play? If you play, why play suited connectors which need bigger implied odds?

I hope he means min BI, not max.

I dont mind the Flop bet as a semi-bluff and then I think many a Hero would get into trouble and force the issue. Of course the opposite would be to slow play and hope for a 9x to pay you off on a later street. But I think when OOP here you can safely donk out and either take it down if no one has a 9x or get a pot built up against passive opponents. If you are up against aggressive players then you may want to go the c/c route OTF so you don't get raised out of the hand.

Just like odds .. you have to consider the rest of the action before taking the next action. You have outs ... and clean outs ... and with 2 callers this is a mess of a spot that you either get out of or hope to continue very cheaply. GL

The drop is:

if no flop, $1
if flop, $3 + $0.5 JP
if turn, $4 + $0.5 JP

Does a strategy exist that beats this game? Lot's of people play it. Is there any reason lots of people play other than "it's all they can afford" or "only to have fun"?

Thinking along the lines of implied odds, some posters have said they don't like my play because you'll lose to a bigger flush too often. It seems as if that thought process negates wanting implied odds - I mean for implied odds to be relevant you need to be not short stacked (have more $ to risk) or have lots of opponents (chances of losing to a better flush go up). How do those concepts coexist into one strategy?

My point on implied odds is simple, the deeper you are the wider a range you can play. if everybody is only 20 BB deep, then you play a very tight strategy and try to GII preflop or OTF with a premium hand.

You don't make straights and flushes often enough to warrant playing two streets with small suited connectors 20 BB deep.

Only one guy was AI. But both of the two remaining player, myself included, had <$100 (50BB) in front of us.

And honestly I don't remember if there were 3 or 4 players to the flop. When I bet 9 into 13 that's likely after drop was removed ... so, I think 4 went to the flop. That's probably why I called from the BB with 67s for $2. I know that I am sensitive to stacks and pot odds pf.

But still, in general, will you stack off with a 7 high flush or the idiot end of a T high straight. I do more often with the flush than the straight. And, yes, I realize it can depend on how you got there ... you could have started with flush outs and then runner runner into the straight in which case I'm probably calling my whole stack.

Or am I just off the deep end here in meaningless blabber? It's hard to know where relevant detailed thought becomes minutiae.

And I would like to know thoughts on whether or not a 1/2 game - $40 fixed buy-in with a drop as outlined above is beatable.