I just played an online sit&go Hold'em tournament where something wierd happened. I'm wondering if it could possibly be evidence of cheating?

I'll call my opponent Mr_A. This is not his real username.

It was early in the tournament. All players were still in. Mr_A was down to 1008 chips starting from 1500.

Before the flop Mr_A was first to bet, and went all in. Another player matched the bet. All others folded.

So the cards were shown. Mr_A showed 2 7. Other player showed A K.

The community cards came up 6 9 2 / 10 / J giving Mr_A the win with a pair of deuces.

So, I ask, why would anyone bet all on two low ranked suited cards? This is something that would almost always lose.

Unless he could see the flop before it was shown. In which case the bet was reasonable. Is it remotely possible that he could do this?

And then a few rounds later he did it again. This time Mr_A was Big Blind. Another player went all in. Mr_A matched the bet.

Cards shown: Mr_A had A9 opponent had A K

Community cards were 4 Q 9 / 8/ A giving our friend 2 pair.

That's another bet that would usually lose, wouldn't it? Unless he could see the flop.

A few turns later, he had 8 7 in the hole, and 6 4 10 in the flop. He bet heavily, but didn't make the straight, and lost to another AK. He didn't survive long after that.

Again, low connectors will usually lose. But with that flop he had a reasonable chance of winning. A heavy bet would make sense if he could see the flop.

So, is it remotely possible that has some cheat software that lets him see the flop?

Or - since I am a novice - was he playing a valid strategy beyond my abilities?

Or a lucky idiot that won on two bad beats?

They were sooted!

About as likely as Obama being a secret Muslim.

Maybe but probably not. Not enough information to say. Would at least need to see hand histories to confirm, sharkscope stats wouldn't hurt as well.

Second and third hand don't seem particularly unusual especially for (presumably) low stakes donks. First hand is not exactly a black swan event either.

Probably. Though 72s hand is just a little worse than 60/40 so generally not what would be considered a bad beat.

Damn. Infamous Mr_A strikes again!

If this was during a rebuy period, then it all means precisely nothing.

Why would he cheat with those skills?

Does that mean it has a 40% chance of winning? Before the flop? Against 8 opponents?

I don't think so. I just ran a monte carlo simulation. I estimate that it has about 10.5% chance of making the strongest hand at the showdown. (Plus or minus 2%)

No rebuys in this type of tournament. You get 1500 chips at the start, and that's it.

Proves that he can tell what cards are coming?

Theres a thing called fold equity. You dont need cards to play no limit holdem, if you bet and your opponent folds you win.

Yes, I know that much. However, I don't see what it has to do with this case.

Why would you assume that 8 players are going to call his shove. The calling range there is likely pretty tight, 99+ or AQ+, so he is going to eliminate most hands. Against an overpair, he is boned. But against two over cards, he is drawing live. It was a pure bluff, plain and simple. What were the blinds? If the big blind was 100 or above, it was a pretty predictable move. If the blinds were lower, then it was a clumsy and heavy handed bluff. Overshoving UTG risks way too much for too little return. But it is evidence of a twitchy and impatient style,not of cheating.

There is almost zero chance that this guy was cheating. Even if he could see the flop coming, would he think that a pair of 2's would hold up. If he could see the flop, turn, river, and players cards, he would have played sooooo much more subtle and would have won the tournament easily.

What is it that you think fold equity is? Making a massive bet with two rags seems like a negative EV play unless you feel that you have high fold equity, then it doesn't really matter what your cards are.

Obviously, Mr_A has invested in the latest version Pattern Map software.

nuff said

even if he could see the flop (and i assume turn and river too?), he would only have 1 pair...and that pair being a pair of deuces.
if i were to go allin PF knowing what would come, i would most certainly wait until my final hand is much better then a pair of deuces.
DUCY?

No he is just ******ed and happened to suck out. It happens, be happy you have this guy at the table.

Pattern Map software....hadn't heard that in a while...Thanks for the memory jog.

Bet Google search has PM on speed dial this morning.... lol

"patternmap" was the 2+2 code word at a live table before "sup bro" became the standard.

I thought it was something about "brown trouts"?

brown trout ftw

AKo vs 72s is a little more than 60/40.

OK, so pick one:

1) Player A is a donk. And you need to get used to this kind of thing happening all the time or pick a different game to play.

2) Despite knowing very little about poker, you just caught Player A using a super-sophisticated cheating system that nobody else has ever been caught using before that would almost certainly either need to be an inside job and/or genius level hacking/analysis/programming. That still resulted in him busting out of the tournament. And he's wasting his time doing this at whatever play money or might as well be play money tables you're playing.

^ 60/40 it's #1 CMAR

Okay, I'll take your points one by one.

"AKo vs 72s is a little more than 60/40."

But when he went all-in it was 72s against 8 unknown hands. That is not 60/40 odds.

"OK, so pick one: Player A is a donk"

I considered that as a likely possibility in my first post.

And you need to get used to this kind of thing happening all the time or pick a different game to play.

I'm used to it happening. But usually I can see some point in the bet.

Despite knowing very little about poker

We've all got to start somewhere. You were a novice once, too.

And FYI I've been studying books on poker theory, running simulations, etc. I'm getting better at it. I'm now at the stage where I'm winning more money than I'm losing. Only at the penny stage so far. So my knowledge is quite a few steps above "very little". I came 2nd in that particular tournament, BTW.

that nobody else has ever been caught using before

People have been caught cheating, though. This includes software that lets them peek at hidden cards. So it wouldn't be unique.


that would almost certainly either need to be an inside job

I don't know the details of how to cheat, but I'll take your word for it.

and/or genius level hacking/analysis/programming

Either that, or he simply downloaded it from the internet. I see cheat software advertised all over. I don't know if any of it works, and I'm not inclined to try it out.


That still resulted in him busting out of the tournament
Even with perfect information, someone could still lose. The blinds could wipe him out, without ever getting a winning hand to bet on.

And besides, my hypothesis was that he could see the flop, but not other people's cards. If such a thing were possible, he'd still be likely to lose.

And he's wasting his time doing this at whatever play money or might as well be play money tables you're playing.

If I had some method of cheating , and the inclination to do so, I'd want to test it on penny stakes before I risked serious money.


To summarize: I've heard that online cheating sometimes happened. I don't know much about it. I came to seek information from people who know more than me. Isn't that the point of the forum? You have told me that it's unlikely, and I accept your knowledge. But I don't think it was a stupid question.

When he went all in is irrelevant to the odds. We go by what hands were actually involved in play, because otherwise you would basically never have the right odds to shove preflop. You're making the mistake of thinking everyone thinks about poker the same way you do, and thus their actions should make sense to you. Some people like to just gamble and have no idea what they're doing beyond clicking buttons randomly. For all we know this guy decided to bluff with 72s and thought the best way to do it was to shove. The way that that software has worked has either been through superuser accounts built into the client at the now defunct Ultimate Bet/Absolute Poker, or through trojans installed on other players' computers to see their hole cards. There's never been a case of a cheater being able to see board cards before they've been dealt. Your first clue that it doesn't work is that whoever makes it is selling it instead of playing high stakes poker and making tons of money with it. But you're basing that on 3 hands where he shoved, called a shove, and "bet heavily" hypothetically "knowing" he was going to flop bottom pair, second pair, and a gutshot straight draw respectively. No one's said it was a stupid question, but it's one of those situations that's easy to use Occam's razor to figure out. CMAR's two scenarios are the most likely, either the dude's a bad player or they're a diabolical technological genius. All signs point to bad player. Here's another way to check up on someone like this in the future: look them up on a tracking site like Sharkscope or Poker Pro Labs or Official Poker Rankings, assuming the site you're playing on doesn't require players to opt in. 99% of the bad players you encounter and look up on one of these tracking sites will be losing players, sometimes down thousands of dollars.