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Could I have gotten away from this or seen it coming? Could I have gotten away from this or seen it coming?

12-24-2014 , 03:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokybacon
You regularly win big pots with flopped sets? How?
For the same reason I lost that one I guess. Are you asking why the hell am I paying to see flops with small pairs? Not sure what you are asking here. I get say pair 5's see a cheap flop and it comes A, 5, x. Someone starts betting hard thinking his Ax is good and doesn't see the set.

I wouldn't go as far as to say regularly but it happens enough to be noticeable.

Quote:
You can't "spot" sets like you can straights or flushes. But if you notice in both hands, both players became very aggressive on the turn and/or river. That's usually a sign that someone has a set. No one is trying to "outplay" you here. They're just playing their strong hands straight-forwardly and you're paying them off.
Yep I see that now. It's like another poster said, I am believing I have the nuts when I have no where near. Need to stop and think and not get carried away with pretty hands.
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12-24-2014 , 04:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woej10
For the same reason I lost that one I guess. Are you asking why the hell am I paying to see flops with small pairs? Not sure what you are asking here. I get say pair 5's see a cheap flop and it comes A, 5, x. Someone starts betting hard thinking his Ax is good and doesn't see the set.

I wouldn't go as far as to say regularly but it happens enough to be noticeable.
How much is 'enough to be noticeable'? And how big are these pots you win? It's great to flop a set of 5's on an A52 board when your opponent holds AK, but how often does that happen? Usually what happens is you miss your set, or you hit it and villain misses/doesn't hit strong enough to call 3 streets. But maybe I'm missing something?
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12-24-2014 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokybacon
How much is 'enough to be noticeable'? And how big are these pots you win? It's great to flop a set of 5's on an A52 board when your opponent holds AK, but how often does that happen? Usually what happens is you miss your set, or you hit it and villain misses/doesn't hit strong enough to call 3 streets. But maybe I'm missing something?
According to poker tracker 10 of my sets out of 33 have been smallish pairs (9 and under) that made a set on the flop. I think what you are getting at is how many small pairs did I pay to the see the flop and missed which I don't know without having a good dig through. I am guessing you will point out that I have wasted a good bit of my win seeing these and mucking aren't you? A good point I hadn't really considered so something else I need to look in to.
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12-24-2014 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woej10
According to poker tracker 10 of my sets out of 33 have been smallish pairs (9 and under) that made a set on the flop. I think what you are getting at is how many small pairs did I pay to the see the flop and missed which I don't know without having a good dig through. I am guessing you will point out that I have wasted a good bit of my win seeing these and mucking aren't you? A good point I hadn't really considered so something else I need to look in to.
Yeah all those times you have to fold postflop adds up.

So how does a typical flopped set pot go for you then? You raise opponent's cbet and get stacks in by the river when he stations you down with his 1 pair? What about all the times you raise his cbet and he has air - does he think you're "making a move" (lol) and shove over your raise with air? Curious how you make lots with your sets.

Last edited by smokybacon; 12-24-2014 at 09:27 PM.
Could I have gotten away from this or seen it coming? Quote
12-25-2014 , 06:12 PM
3bet or fold in sb.
Could I have gotten away from this or seen it coming? Quote
12-25-2014 , 11:28 PM
Grunch.

I like to try to reduce all hand histories to the root fundamental basic core discipline and principles involved.

In this case, I think about the two main reasons for betting.

#1) We bet in order to get lessor hands to call
#2) We bet in order to get better hands to fold

Looking at the betting here, can V ever really call you with a lessor hand? Is AQ or KQ really going to stack off on a Q 9 9 J 2 rainbow board???

Also looking at V's stats, his range is pretty wide and definitely includes 9x. Look at that board. Q9 and J9 are smack in the middle of 9x hands V can play.

Since we check/raise turn, I think V only continues with a range of JJ, QQ, 97 - A9 hands, in this case what does our equity look like?

Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

100,032 games 0.05 secs 2,006,400 games/sec

Board: 9s 9h Qd Jh
Dead:

equity win
Hand 0: 63.577% { QQ-JJ, 99, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 97s+ }
Hand 1: 36.423% { KTo }
Not so hot

obviously there is more involved here, I don't know the history of whether you have been running sick bluffs on each other or what not, but just based on some simple equity and ranging, our KTo isn't all that hot ESPECIALLY when we c/r with it and eliminate the hands from V's range that we beat.

So back up, and try to put yourself in your villain's shoes. If he has X hand, how would he play it? Could that hand possibly pay you off?

Then looking at the river, is V ever shoving with a hand that we beat? Especially after we check raise the turn? And look at your hand, you have the T blocker so it's highly doubtful V has a flush draw since only an OESFD would continue given a turn check raise (for some reason villains love SFD and never fold them) another hand that may continue despite your turn c/r is a top pair + FD combo, but since the Q is out that eliminates that combo. So your c/r really does reduce the range of hands V can have to hands that beat you...

Anyways, I'm always thinking about "what lessor hand can pay me off" whenever there is big action and big betting. It also works the other way, when we can shove.

I had an interesting hand the other day, I had 55 in the BB, 7 way limpy limpy pot. Game is 2/5nl, eff stacks $600 I cover.

Flop($30) A 5 A
I lead out $100, 2 villains call

Turn($330) 7
I blast the pot for $500 putting them both all-in, they both tank call

River(1.8k+) 8
V1 shows A8 and wins
V2 shows A9
I lose with my boat.

Now, typical thinking would be "Well, pot is only X amount so I need to bet around X..." and that thinking would be wrong in this case simply because in this case I knew it was probable one of the 6 limpers had an ace and if they had an ace they are never folding trip aces no matter what (it is biologically impossible for a live player in the cash game to fold trip aces). I can go ahead and blast away with my boat and get all the money in on turn when I'm 80%+ favorite to win and I know 100% they are never folding turn no matter how weaksauce their kickers are. Just sucked that in this hand one of them binked.

basically, that is an opposite example of your hand, that is, I'm recognizing when a lessor hand can call my big bets whereas from your hand it looks like you don't recognize the circumstances when you want to blast away for value...

food for thought

GL
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12-26-2014 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cry Me A River
Here in Beginners we keep the flamage to a minimum. This forum has the reputation for being one of the nicest on 2+2. What you're complaining about is true of virtually every Internet message board, forum or Newsgroup ever (welcome to the Internet!). In the case of 2+2 this is a really good thing.

I didn't come to 2+2 to make friends, though that's been a nice side benefit. I didn't come here to hold hands and sing songs. I didn't come here for a hug. I came here to learn to play poker.

2+2 is not a support group. If I play a hand wrong and post it, I will be told in no uncertain terms. But if I do something dumb, I want to hear about it. That is very valuable. People pay $50+/hr to get what 2+2 provides for free. It is far more valuable for me that someone be able to cut to the chase than constantly worry about hurting my feelings.

You'd never give your girlfriend a negative answer when she asks, "Does this make me look fat?" On 2+2 you will be told exactly how many pounds you need to lose, what food to eat and which exercises to do. That kind of openness and honesty is invaluable to learning and there's a real danger that over-moderation would kill that. If durrrrr wants to tell me my play "sucks", I welcome it because I'm getting free lessons from durrr!


There are questions that get posted in Beginners that I've personally answered like 50 times (usually by linking the FAQ) but there are some people who get annoyed when n00bs ignore the FAQs and ask the same questions day after day after day. It's just human nature. And it does serve a couple of purposes. First in the same way that very few kids touch a hot stove twice. Once you've been been berated for not checking the Sticky, you usually start checking the Stickies.

Second, it weeds out the people who don't want it bad enough and keeps them from wasting everyone's time.

If you can't deal with some random stranger criticizing a post you made anonymously that can't be traced back to you, what are you going to do when some drunk goes off on you in a casino? What are you going to do when you hit a 100K hand break-even stretch?

Do you think anyone driven enough to be a serious athlete would ever let the prospect of getting yelled at by their coach (or teammate or fan) get in the way? There would be no pro sports at all!

Can you imagine an NBA player complaining that the coach yells too much or the fans are too mean?

Yeah, people want so badly to be the next Phil Ivey. But not bad enough to risk getting yelled at on 2+2?

Please.

If 2+2 intimidates you so much it inhibits you from posting here and learning to play better, it's probably doing you a big favour by weeding you out before you get soul crushed by the poker gods. If you're not mentally tough enough to post on an Internet forum you're not nearly mentally tough enough to play poker seriously.

Brillient post
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01-01-2015 , 07:50 AM
What DgiHarris said, plus beware of paired boards in the same way you would a board with 3 suited cards.
Could I have gotten away from this or seen it coming? Quote
01-01-2015 , 08:17 AM
There is a reason why people are paying off your sets. Its to do with your image.
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