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Conflicting info on pot odds Conflicting info on pot odds

03-26-2016 , 01:21 PM
So I'm studying pot odds currently and I read some conflicting information I would like your take on.

Just to recap what I have learned:

If we have a flush draw (9 outs) we have a roughly 36% chance of hitting our draw on the turn or river. So we should only call a bet if it's less than 36% of the total pot (haven't reached the part about implied odds yet).

However, some argue that you should only use the percentage for the next card (where 9 outs would be around 18%), but wouldn't we end up folding almost every draw since very few bets are less than 18% of the pot?

What is seen as the best option to follow?
Conflicting info on pot odds Quote
03-26-2016 , 03:02 PM
Unless it’s an all-in bet, you should only consider the next street. For a flop call, the estimated flush draw equity is 9/47=19.1%. Whether you have the required pot odds of 4.2 to 1 is a matter of how much money went in pre-flop and prior to your call relative to the call amount. Also, if you think you have implied odds (somewhat dubious with a flush compared to a straight draw or low/middle pair set draw) the pot odds requirement can be somewhat lowered.
Conflicting info on pot odds Quote
03-26-2016 , 03:32 PM
Another thing to consider is how likely your opponent would be to check on the turn. In some cases a player may bet the flop then check the turn cause he thinks he's being slow played or he's not that confident in his hand. If you think he's likely to do that then 36% is probably closer to correct, if not 18% is probably closer.
Conflicting info on pot odds Quote
03-26-2016 , 05:53 PM
Search for "mathenoobics" in this forum. There is a series of articles that will explain everything you need to know.

Edit: It's top answer on google. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...poker-1175186/
Conflicting info on pot odds Quote
03-26-2016 , 06:11 PM
I've reached the point where I rarely fold flushdraws on the flop or turn

Vs a lag, tag, or tighty, I'm probably check calling, or betting or check raising the flop and barreling most turns. If I just check call, then I'm occasionally forced to fold the turn when I miss, but even then I might bluff if my line makes sense.

Vs a loose passive, they usually bet small anyways so the calculation is just about automatic to call. If they bet big, then they have a real hand and I have a good chance to win big bets later in the hand. It's when they bet really big and don't have much behind to lose that I'll fold.

Vs maniacs, pair outs are strengthened so I can call more often with flushdraws. Occasionally my pair outs will be ruined by the board and I'm forced to fold.

----

When I play fixed limit, I absolutely never fold natural flushdraws, with the exception of facing heavy multiway action on a double paired board.
Conflicting info on pot odds Quote
03-26-2016 , 06:26 PM
OP, you asked a good question that is more complicated than you realize. In NLHE, you're rarely getting pot odds to call a bet with a flush draw to see the next card. You should only consider seeing one additional card, not two.

As for playing flush draws, you may be at the stage where calling with Axs isn't a good move. You need to work on how to win hands without hitting your hand to make it profitable.
Conflicting info on pot odds Quote
03-27-2016 , 05:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mumblejumble
So I'm studying pot odds currently and I read some conflicting information I would like your take on.

Just to recap what I have learned:

If we have a flush draw (9 outs) we have a roughly 36% chance of hitting our draw on the turn or river. So we should only call a bet if it's less than 36% of the total pot (haven't reached the part about implied odds yet).

However, some argue that you should only use the percentage for the next card (where 9 outs would be around 18%), but wouldn't we end up folding almost every draw since very few bets are less than 18% of the pot?

What is seen as the best option to follow?
actually no, people call with incorrect odds all the time in poker to try and steal the pot. Some people like to gamble and thats how a lot of the money is made in poker, by people calling bets they shouldn't be calling. And only calculate your odds X4 if your allin on the flop or there are no more future bets. Always calculate X2 if your not allin.
Conflicting info on pot odds Quote

      
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