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Combo Counting - How Do I Use It? Combo Counting - How Do I Use It?

04-22-2019 , 11:42 PM
So I understand what Combo Counting is.

It's when you look at your cards, and the flop and count the number of Combo's Your Opponet could be holding, based on various factors;
*Pre-Flop Action
*Your Cards
*Community Cards
*Opponets Play Style

How do I use this though?

Game 1/2 Live - 9 Players
So lets say I wake up in the small blind with AsKs, and 3 limpers, before action gets to me.

I raise 12.5 BB to $25 ( not sure if this is the correct size or not
I get one Caller.)

Villian is Tight-Passive

Flop comes QdKd4S

What do I do from here? using Combo Counting;
I can see that there are only 9 Combos of AQ and only 2 Combos of AQ suited.

Also know that there are only 6 combos of AK, and 2 Combos of AKs since i'm holding one of them.

There's also 16 Combos of TJ, and 4 of them being TJ suited

6 Combos of JJ 3 Combos of QQ 1 Combo of KK 3 Combos of AA and 6 Combos of TT or lower, besides 44 which there are 6 combos of

But from here, what do I do?

Should I assume my opponet's holding is something like TJ suited? or possibly QQ or JJ or TT or 99 or 88?

If i'm looking at this right, then I should be way ahead of my opponets range correct? Oh, I guess villian could also have KQ with 6 combos of that out there, but obviously he's only calling this raise with KQ suited, which there is only 2 combos of that out there.

How should I proceed is my quesiton?

Could I try to get Thin Value off of Anything here?
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04-23-2019 , 02:03 AM
Never did any combo counting! If the board is 10 9 7 u´ve got to account for 8 6 and J 8! That´s the combo counting I´m doing!

If u´ve got an Ace, there´s only 3 instead of 4 cards to make aces of which leaves 3 possibilities instead of 6? Correct me here!

If u get one caller with 12.5BB u´ve raised the correct amount!
Combo Counting - How Do I Use It? Quote
04-23-2019 , 02:11 PM
I gather from OP's question that he knows how to count combos but is not sure how this is used.

A prime objective of every poker betting decision is to maximize EV. This often requires you to estimate your equity, the probability of winning (or chopping) the hand. Today, good players assign a range to opponents and adjust that range as the hand progresses with bet decisions and dealt board cards. A range consists of combinations and when those combinations are compared to your hand an equity estimate can be made.

Here’s a simple example. Suppose after a river ace, villain goes all-in with a board of T K 2 A T. You have A K for two pair, aces over kings. The range you put villain on after the turn is {TT+, AT+}.

The combos in villain’s range that beat you are TT, KK, AA and AT; AK ties. Pairs have 6 combos and non-pairs have 16 combos but you have to account for card removal. In villain’s range there is/are 1 TT, 6 JJ, 6 QQ, 1 KK, 1 AA, 4 AT, 8 AJ, 8 AQ,and 4 AK.

Villain’s range includes 15 pairs plus 24 non-pairs for a total of 39. Of these, 9 beat you (2 AK for the chop), so your equity is 30/39 =77%, With your equity over 50%, a call has positive EV.
Combo Counting - How Do I Use It? Quote
04-23-2019 , 07:27 PM
€: Sry, was too fast!

You don´t have to care about combos here, that was my first point anyways! U´ve got AK K so u´r first goal should be to valuetown! Bet big, not thin cause u want draws to pay u! Since u´ve raised to 12.5BB the pot is basically 3bet, so Ak K should be a default broke! Valuebet, Valuebet, valuebet for 100BBs! The only concern is KQ, but we don´t have to worry too much, cause we will get his stack if a king flops! 44 doesn´t have the odds to call u preflop if they are setmining. And if he´s moving with pocketpairs, u want to valuetown him anyways! If he´s playing K4s or Q4s be kind to him! If he coldcalled QQ or the fewer KK combos what so ever! He would have gottan you´re money anyways!

U shouldn´t go broke with AK K all the time, but against guys that call 12,5BB raises u should! Ofc u can shut down if draws hit!

My point is, don´t think about combos and forget the easy stuff!

Last edited by GoFor; 04-23-2019 at 07:51 PM.
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04-24-2019 , 09:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoFor
My point is, don´t think about combos and forget the easy stuff!
OK, let's ignore irrelevant comments so we can answer the actual question.

The way you've framed it, it's not surprising that you're confused. Probably the best way to go about this is make certain situations much more simple, and then build from there. In your situation your opponent could have many hands.

Let's take a simpler situation. Let's assume for sake of argument that you have a pretty good read on what your opponent plays. Let's say he'd raise JJ or better, or AK or AQ, but limp and call with all pocket pairs 22-TT, and fold everything else. On a flop of KQ4, we know he has no combos of KK, QQ, AK, AQ, KQ, etc. What are the chances you're ahead right now? There are 6 combos of each of the pocket pairs 22, 33, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99, and TT for 48 combos. There are 3 combos of 44 for the set. So only a 3/51 chance he flopped a set here, or about 6%.

The next question is, how do you play against that? Well, it's kind of hard for you to make money if he has TT here. So just because there's a 94% chance you're ahead doesn't necessarily mean you should bet. Perhaps the best way to win a little money is check and see if he'll bluff at it, or perhaps he might think you have a hand like 88 and checking will allow you a little thin value on a later street.

Now make it a little more complicated. Let's say he'll limp and call with KQ as well. There are 6 combos of KQ he could have. So now there are 9 combos out of 57 he could have to be ahead, or about 16%.

Once you start adding a lot of hands in villain's range, the combos start becoming less and less useful because you can't calculate it all during real time. It's only when we can narrow down reasonably well what villain might have in this situation can we use combos reliably.
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04-24-2019 , 09:52 AM
Ill try to break it down as simply as possible:

In spots where the ranges are very wide, never count combos in game. These situations it is much more useful to be aware of what boards are better for villain and what boards are better for Hero. Anyways, when the ranges get narrower, this is where counting combos helps a TON! ie 3bet or 4bet pots, river spots, and occasionally some turn spots depending on action.

Best of luck OP!
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