Cap Game EV - Beginning Poker Questions

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Cap Game EV

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02-21-2012 , 07:57 AM

D3nBr0

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 213

Hi Guys,

I pretty new to CAP games and was wondering over a couple of things:

1. Is it usual to have extremely high variance?

2. Is it usual to run below EV? After 3750 hands @ 50nl CAP im 220 BB below EV....

Getting pretty frustrated is this usual??

Thx in advance!

D3nBr0

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02-21-2012 , 08:00 AM

AlienSpaceBat

table tilting animal

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 9,703

1. Yes
2. No, but it happens ...

Your sample is very small though.

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02-21-2012 , 08:02 AM

D3nBr0

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 213

Thx for the quick reply!

How Big can a usual swing be?

What wld u say is a better sample? 50k hands?

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02-21-2012 , 08:04 AM

gothninja

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 4,425

1. Short stack games have high variance because players tend to become pot-committed often due to the low stack-to-pot ratio. Meaning that all-ins are very common with cards to come, and coin flip situations are standard.
2. It is usual to run above or below EV. But it is predicted to be on EV (by definition)
3. High variance leads to high swings in EV difference. Such swings are normal. Be less concerned with your results and instead look at how well you are making decisions.

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02-21-2012 , 08:11 AM

D3nBr0

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 213

Quote:

Originally Posted by gothninja

3. High variance leads to high swings in EV difference. Such swings are normal. Be less concerned with your results and instead look at how well you are making decisions.

Ok, If I wld calculate that i was running @ EV I wld b up 10$ over 3750 hands which isnt great. Im working on my range and BB defend range.
My win rate has also been effected bcs i was playing to many tables at once.

I was thinking about purchasing the www.shortstackrevolution.com, Any thgts on that?

Thx for all the help!

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02-21-2012 , 08:25 AM

gothninja

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 4,425

Quote:

Originally Posted by D3nBr0

Ok, If I wld calculate that i was running @ EV I wld b up 10$ over 3750 hands which isnt great.

People tend to think that the EV line in HEM eliminates luck. It doesn't. It only factors out situations where you are all-in before the river, which is a very tiny part of the EV picture.

Try to ignore the EV line and focus instead on improving aspects of your decision making.

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02-21-2012 , 08:39 AM

AlienSpaceBat

table tilting animal

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 9,703

Fyi, its commonly said that CAP games below $1/$2 or so are very difficult if not impossible to win at, due to the high rake. Most CAP regs at lower stakes have relied on rakeback to show any profit, as I understand it.

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