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Can you explain to me what the Variance Simulator results mean? Can you explain to me what the Variance Simulator results mean?

03-22-2014 , 03:32 AM
70% confidence interval (»?«) [893 BB, 3107 BB][3.57 BB/100, 12.43 BB/100]
95% confidence interval (»?«) [-214 BB, 4214 BB][-0.85 BB/100, 16.85 BB/100]
Probability of loss after 25000 hands (»?«) 3.5380%
Probability of running at or above observed win rate (0.00 BB/100) over 25000 hands with a true win rate of 8.00 BB/100 (»?«) 96.4620%
Probability of running below observed win rate (0.00 BB/100) over 25000 hands with a true win rate of 8.00 BB/100 (»?«) 3.5380%
Can you explain to me what the Variance Simulator results mean? Quote
03-22-2014 , 11:06 AM
You apparently entered data for 250 hands and had a win rate of 8bb/100 and a standard deviation of 6bb/100 (very unlikely to have a std dev this small)

-70% confidence interval (»?«) [893 BB, 3107 BB][3.57 BB/100, 12.43 BB/100]
You can be 70% confident that the interval (3.57/100, 12.43/100) contains your true win rate. This converts to an interval of (893, 3107) for total winnings for 250 hands

-95% confidence interval (»?«) [-214 BB, 4214 BB][-0.85 BB/100, 16.85 BB/100]
Similar interpretation as above. For higher confidence, the interval is wider.

I think for the following, you entered a win rate of 8bb/100 and a s.d. of 70bb/100

-Probability of loss after 25000 hands (»?«) 3.5380%

-Probability of running below observed win rate (0.00 BB/100) over 25000 hands with a true win rate of 8.00 BB/100 (»?«) 3.5380%


The probability that your win rate is less than zero after 25,000 hands if your true win rate is 8bbb/100 and standard deviation is 70bb/100

- Probability of running at or above observed win rate (0.00 BB/100) over 25000 hands with a true win rate of 8.00 BB/100 (»?«) 96.4620%

96.4620% = 100% – 3.5380%; the probability that you have a positive win rate after 25,000 hands with mean 8bb/100 and sd=70bb/100
Can you explain to me what the Variance Simulator results mean? Quote
03-22-2014 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
You apparently entered data for 250 hands and had a win rate of 8bb/100 and a standard deviation of 6bb/100 (very unlikely to have a std dev this small)

-70% confidence interval (»?«) [893 BB, 3107 BB][3.57 BB/100, 12.43 BB/100]
You can be 70% confident that the interval (3.57/100, 12.43/100) contains your true win rate. This converts to an interval of (893, 3107) for total winnings for 250 hands

-95% confidence interval (»?«) [-214 BB, 4214 BB][-0.85 BB/100, 16.85 BB/100]
Similar interpretation as above. For higher confidence, the interval is wider.

I think for the following, you entered a win rate of 8bb/100 and a s.d. of 70bb/100

-Probability of loss after 25000 hands (»?«) 3.5380%

-Probability of running below observed win rate (0.00 BB/100) over 25000 hands with a true win rate of 8.00 BB/100 (»?«) 3.5380%


The probability that your win rate is less than zero after 25,000 hands if your true win rate is 8bbb/100 and standard deviation is 70bb/100

- Probability of running at or above observed win rate (0.00 BB/100) over 25000 hands with a true win rate of 8.00 BB/100 (»?«) 96.4620%

96.4620% = 100% – 3.5380%; the probability that you have a positive win rate after 25,000 hands with mean 8bb/100 and sd=70bb/100
Thanks. What should i put for std deviation for live full ring? And number of hands?
Can you explain to me what the Variance Simulator results mean? Quote
03-22-2014 , 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by n0npareil
Thanks. What should i put for std deviation for live full ring? And number of hands?
Typically you enter what you've experienced. Most poker tracking programs record the win rate and standard deviation. Live you have to enter the data yourself and that will take a bit of work. Also, instead of win rate per 100 hands, which is typical for on-line, for live you probably want to use profit and sd per hour.

If you search 2+2 for live standard deviation of win rate, you will find a number of postings where members have noted their standard deviation
Can you explain to me what the Variance Simulator results mean? Quote

      
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