Hey all, ran into a bit of a tricky situation. Holding the nut full house, should I be calling this shove or folding in case he has quads?

888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 105.5 BB
UTG: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 8.57, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
UTG+1: 131.5 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
UTG+2: 120 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 11.48, PFR: 8.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 61)
MP+1: 51.5 BB (VPIP: 8.40, PFR: 6.92, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 132)
CO: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 16.88, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 155)
BTN: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 13.43, PFR: 10.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 68)
SB: 185 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 8.93, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, fold, MP calls 1 BB, MP+1 calls 1 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 15 BB

Flop: (39 BB, 2 players) 5 5 5
SB checks, Hero bets 29 BB, SB raises to 167 BB, Hero ???

Call. Zeebo's Theorem applies. Plus it's blind vs. blind, he could have literally any pocket pair. If he has quads, wow, nice call preflop.

What can he possibly have that contain's a 5? He raised 3 limpers OOP (and a small raise at that, which seems to indicate strength) and then called a 6x 3-bet. The fact that you're even asking is troubling. Stop looking for monsters under the bed.

your thinking of folding a boat when you have an SPR of 2.5????????? Please don't ever play poker again if you made that fold.

What is SPR?

I didn't fold, but didn't want to post results before receiving some advice as everyone here says results are irrelevant.

He had KQ. No idea why he shoved but the aces held up.

Would be unlucky if they hadn't.

This. I was being polite, but my thought was if you even ask the question, maybe you don't have the proper psychological make-up for poker.

Is this a 5 sometimes? Never say "never" in poker. Yes - some times he has a 5. But he has a 5 an order of magnitude less often that he has KK-TT *and* hits his 2 outer to beat you (which will happen about 8.5% of the time).

Would you fold here because he might have a lower full house and you're afraid of him sucking out? Of course not.

Here - repeat after me - "if he has a 5, more power to him, he's an idiot, and i will make a note and get him sometime down the road. I don't care, it's only 1 buy-in."

Now say the last sentence again - "I don't care, it's only 1 buy-in."

If you're afraid of losing, it is very hard to win.

Stack-to-pot ratio. It's the ratio between the size of your stack and the size of the pot. The lower it is, the wider a range of hands you can profitably stack off with.

SPR = Stack to Pot Ratio.

Its good OP that your thinking about hands they way you are and trying to find leaks in your game. But this is a super fist pump call. No need for further analysis.

edit: also think about what you would do when you have a 5 in this situation(i know its hard if not impossible to have a 5 but for discussions sake lets assume you can). Think about why if he had a 5 why raising would be bad for his range(bluffs, value and semi bluffs). What would be the reasons for slowplaying?
Also think about the implications of him having a 5 here for his entire preflop 3bet calling range.

edit edit: I do realise I said no need for further analysis then go on to analyse it further

Hi all,

Like I said, I did call in the end, although did timebank it for a bit to consider. The reason was I've read here, and in poker books, that a checkraise normally indicates a very strong hand, so it might not be too likely villain was doing this with 22-TT, and after my 6x preflop raise he'd have put me on a strong hand as well.

I agree it's unlikely he had A5/K5 in this spot and called a 3bet preflop.

Not sure what 'bad for his range' really means (do you mean if he raised that would indicate he's only raising his value hands and so we could assume he had nothing if he checks?).

Reason for slowplaying quads- unless I have a high pocket pair I'm probably not going to be calling, so he's not going to get calls from many worse hands, and needs to give me time to catch up?

I guess you are asking yourself the question because of the other topic (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...-kind-1386602/).

Your case is very different. You are HU and there was real preflop action, making the presence of a 5 much less likely.

EDIT: On this kind of board, and at nl2 a checkraise can mean anything. He probably thought you held AK or a low pp and that he could bluff you.

On this board there are no draws so he can't be semibluffing. This takes some of his valueish hands he could be raising with. His value range is crushed by yours. He has hands which fall in between your value hands(AA.KK,QQ) and your bluffs (Ax and Kx). So raising accomplishes nothing. it folds out the hands he beats and gets called by better hands. If he doesn't have a value raising range he should not have a bluff raising range. So he should never raise this board.


If he has and 5x in this spot his range is going to be really wide. Not a lot of hands hit this board so even if he only bluffs raises a small part of that air range he is still bluffing a decent frequency. So even if he could have a 5 in this spot you should still be calling all day because its such a tiny part of his range.

yep
Slowplay because
-He has the board crushed. Nothing can beat him besides a runner runner AA/KK.
-Your going to be putting your money in with QQ+ anyway so no need to raise.
-Raising gives you no chance to catch up with Ax or Kx
-Money can still g in over 2 streets if you check behind turn.

probably a few more reason in there too.

This

of course call, its like 1/3000 chance to flop a quad however cards K5,A5 could be real, dont expect to play some real poker at 2NL on 888 , since people get the 2$ for free they mostly do everything to see a flop, its a check-call fest there, you shove with TPTK on the flop and they show you random two pairs or a medium pair with deuce kicker

Never fold here, you have a very low SPR as other posters said, and you flopped the 2nd nuts, there is no scenario in the world where you would fold this, maybe in a live game against players you've played with for YEARS, you might be able to catch a tell and fold, but that scenario basically only exists in poker fantasy land, so yeah, never never fold this hand.

An action that indicates a strong hand can also be a bluff, or a strong hand that is weaker than your nut full house.

Any pocket pair is a strong hand on this flop. 22 is a 67% favorite against an opponent without a pocket pair. AK is a strong hand here unless he puts you on exactly a pocket pair.

Did you raise this much because you expected anyone to call an oversized raise (your strong hand vs fish), or did you raise this much because you wanted everyone to fold (your hand is not so strong)? Fish who calls big raise with medium hand is not putting you on big pocket pair, if he is thinking about you at all. Non-fish who calls big raise is putting you on medium hand which he tries to fold out with a check-raise bluff plus so-so equity with KQ. KQ is not that bad of a hand on this flop if this were not a 3-bet pot. It has 70% equity vs (no-pair no-ace), 30% equity vs 22-JJ, and, against you, it almost bluffed out AA.

I raised that much because there were 3 limpers already, so I followed the standard convention of 3x the raiser +1x per limper. Definitely wanted a lot of them to fold as AA doesn't play well multiway and OOP.

its 3x +1 per limper when raising, not 3betting. 4.5x would have been plenty as a standard. But looking at the results you were right to raise larger.

yeah the 3-bet is a little big for "standard" but let's be honest, this is 2nl, the bads you will find here are the same type you will find at your local $10 buy-in home game, they won't fold their small blind anyways, so you could probably have raised 10x and still seen the exact same action. That said, better players will usually interpret oversized 3bet as very strong, and instinctively fold, so you lose some equity here vs strong competition by raising that much. Here though, you successfully isolated the village idiot, so good job.

Wow, folding that flop never % of the time. If he called me with a 5, nice call pre.