Hello

Here is the situation:

Caps game (max 20bb):

Stats of sb from pokerTracker:
Preflop_Limp_Call = 30
Fold_to_F_CBet = 60

I have a question about this action: "HERO Raise $16.0, pot=$48.0", is the hero's decision of cbet correct?

HERO has decided to make a cbet. And here is my calculations of EV for cbet:

Final EV = 22.76 = 5.69 big blinds. EV of cbet in 5.69 big blinds, so Hero should cbet.

Are my calculations correct?
Is the condition EV>0 enough for the decision of cbet? Or I should calculate EV of check (and of push) and select one with higher EV?

Hope for you help

Making a 1/2p c-bet should be profitable, but it might be more profitable to do something else. You can't know the precise EV without knowing how often villain folds, how often he check-raises, or how often he calls. And when he calls, you have to work out what will happen on every possible turn card. (You've still got about $52 to bet if the c-bet gets called, haven't you?)

In addition, you might know villain's average "fold to c-bet %" stat, but you have to look at his range and work out how he plays it in this precise scenario. I'd be surprised if he folds as often as 60% of the time on this board. He should have a lot of draws and pairs.

EDIT: To get a more accurate result, you'd need a solver like Pio or GTORangebuilder, since these allow you to specify a range for each player, and they can crunch the numbers for all likely action sequences. I knocked up an approximation of the situation with Snowie. It thinks villain's range is quite different to the one you've given villain (villain shouldn't be limp-calling with QQ+ lol), so the result will be quite different. Snowie estimates the EV of a half pot bet against someone that has a pseudo GTO limp-calling range is 2.43bb. But it prefers checking if that's the bet size you want to use. If you use 1/4pot instead, the EV goes up to 2.82bb, and betting is more common.



EDIT #2: Even if villain limp-calls a very weak range (stuff like K2s, 85s, 74s), then Snowie suggests he should only be folding 15% of the time vs a 1/2p bet. But humans are terrible at poker. If someone folds 60% of the time, you should basically bet your entire range.

Thanks for sharing your ideas

My main assumtion (simplified approach) was that villain never plays check-raise. And with such assumption I've used the following statistic (it is in description of the problem)

so I use in my calculations how often villain folds on my cbet (and I've used that value in described calculations). And I also use the stat of calling my cbet ( that is exact 1 - Fold_to_F_CBet ) in my calculations.

About " how often he check-raises" I have the next thoughts. If he will play check-raises, I'll calculate the EV of check and the EV of call the same way as I did it now.

But right now I don't think if this approach (my simplified, in 2 steps) will give the same results as a complex approach (add to calculations the possibility of check-raise on the first step). What do you think? I think that the results almost always will be close enough.

I've tried to guess his range looking at statistic Preflop_Limp_Call as only this stat tells information about his range (his check on flop don't tell me nothing about his range) and I calculate equity on exact board of my hand VS his range and use it in my calculations of EV. And the statistic tells that villain limp-calls with QQ+

Don't you think that my approach is the same? I calculate EV of every possible variant (simplified, almost every ) and demonstrate my calculations with formulas and exact values for them. And Pio should do the same.

What is Snowie? I use the exact range from statistic of villain Preflop_Limp_Call = 30%. Right now I understand that I should calculate the EV of check (because I don't do it now) to decide if Hero should make check or cbet. I'll try to do it and share the results.

Snowie suggests, but poker tracker tells exact numbers

"If someone folds 60% of the time, you should basically bet your entire range" - my EV calculations (if they are correct) should demonstrate this. I'll try to change my cards to "entire range" and see if this is true.