Villain stats are over insignificant number of hands (12). Seems to be a bit stationy. Playing a lot of hands, no PFR at all.

So looking back at it here, I maybe should have bet 2/3 pot on the turn here. How would you be playing this hand here?



Are there any easy rules to follow here for betsizing? I seem to be folding out people a lot with my betsizing, missing a lot of value...

We are not going to get paid off every time we hit a set OTF that's why we need odds of at least 15 to 1 to set mine.

The general advice that I've always read/been told it's to go for Max value when we think we are ahead which means pot size bets and even looking for spots where we can gii as soon as possible. Boards with Axx are good spots to get Max value for our sets as Villains are stacking off with TP at 2nl and we know how much fish love their Ax hands pre flop.

After getting called OTF I think your bet sizing OTT is good. Just because Villain folds doesn't mean we over sized the bet. We want to make sure that we bet enough OTT so we can get stacks in OTR.

WP

Advanced betsizing is one of the hardest skills to get right in poker and you shouldnt worry about that much now (nor should i)

For the not too advanced players i would remember just the following basic rules:

Bet bigger on drawy boards than on dry ones. Let this range somewhere between half the pot and equal the pot.

Dont bet an amount that leaves you with so little behind that you cant fold anymore. In that case just go allin instead. (unless your hand is unbeatable and you actually want to improve the chance your opponent puts more money in the pot)

When valuebetting the river, bet an amount that you think your opponent is going to call with a worse. Meaning if he has been check calling with what you suppose is probably top pair weak kicker, bet some moderate amount. If you think he has a flush but you have the nut flush or a full house, push allin. If you think your opponent is very weak however, dont go minbetting. Remember that it is better to have your opponent call a stacksized bet 20% of the time (and you beat him those times) than having him call a 10% sized bet 100% of the time.

Slightly more advanced rules:

In some cases, you may also not want to make a bet IP where it will be easy for your opponent to check raise allin and thus eliminate your positional advantage.

If you have a hand strong enough to valuebet all 3 streets and end up allin, try and measure your bets so that you will have roughly equal size bets on all streets. You can use this table for that:

stack/pot betsize
4 50%
6 64%
8 75%
10 85%
12 95%
14 100%

Of course you need to weigh different aspects and choose which one is most important in the situation. Also, some of the more advanced concepts will contradict some of these. That is because advanced concepts are about balanced ranges and bet/bluff ratios etc. None of that matters at the lowest stakes because noone is aware of your ranges and ratios.

.69 looks 100x stronger than potting it imo (not that this matters)

just go big and don't fold and ur golden

Another way of looking at it is using basic economics.

Our customers (Villains) are generally 'inelastic' and are happy to pay any price for the same product (seeing the next card) so we might as well charge the maximum price which is pot or close to it.

Saying that, I'm still guilty at times of thinking 'if I bet too much they are going to fold and I won't get maximum value for my set' and hit the 70% button instead of the 90% one.

I often see the words 'bet bigger OTF' when I post hands, so today it stops and I'm value betting 90% pot from today forth.

I think your sizing is fine. He raised and called a good size reraise otf, shows strength and therefore a big bet ott is the right play here. If he had check called the flop then I would have bet less here to keep him in the hand (still not giving him odds to draw though).

It tough to get much value out of a board like that. Most likely he's holding one or two high cards and is hoping to make a good pair on the turn. A3s or A4s is also possible either way he's on a draw and isn't going to follow you to value town. On the other hand if he's gunning for the straight that 7 might just have made it at which point your about to get kicked in the nuts without too much you can do about it.