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07-23-2008 , 03:42 PM
I am a bit green when it comes to the math side of hold em but can you tell me if this is right or wrong:

My Cards: Ah Ks

FLOP 7c - 9h - 2s - Jd - RIVER CARD STILL TO COME

1 opponents in the hand which i put on an AQ.

I need to catch a king or ace to make my hand on the river.

This is how I figured out the probability of me making my hand:

52 cards in a deck minus 8 cards (mine, opponents, and board) leaving 44 unknowns.

I figure I can catch one of the two remaining aces and 3 kings giving me 5 outs.

I divided the 5 outs into 44 (remaining and unknown cards) which gives me
the approx. odds of 1:9.

I am only trying to figure on hitting an ace or king and not worried about suits or pot odds but only want to make sure I am figuring the Probability correctly.

Michael
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07-23-2008 , 03:57 PM
You have the right idea. Just make sure that you don't get odds confused with probability; you don't need a colon sign when dealing with probability but you may use it when you are dealing with odds.

Your odds against hitting an ace or a king is 39:5. Or equivalently, your odds in favor of hitting an ace or a king is 5:39. The probability that you will hit an ace or a king is 5/44. Keep in mind though that the only way for AQ to win is to hit a Q which will happen with probability 4/44.
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07-23-2008 , 04:12 PM
looks good, except for Q=3/44
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07-23-2008 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay_shark

Keep in mind though that the only way for AQ to win is to hit a Q which will happen with probability 4/44.
3/44
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07-23-2008 , 04:50 PM
41 outs to win!
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07-23-2008 , 07:30 PM
its quite easy with the rule 4xouts on flop / 2x outs on turn. but with you winning and being far ahead against AQ if you are so sure he has that particular hand, it's more iinteresting what equity of villain is. its freakin 6%. not much or 0.5 to 9.5
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07-24-2008 , 05:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by michael02865
I am a bit green when it comes to the math side of hold em but can you tell me if this is right or wrong:

My Cards: Ah Ks

FLOP 7c - 9h - 2s - Jd - RIVER CARD STILL TO COME

1 opponents in the hand which i put on an AQ.

I need to catch a king or ace to make my hand on the river.

This is how I figured out the probability of me making my hand:

52 cards in a deck minus 8 cards (mine, opponents, and board) leaving 44 unknowns.

I figure I can catch one of the two remaining aces and 3 kings giving me 5 outs.

I divided the 5 outs into 44 (remaining and unknown cards) which gives me
the approx. odds of 1:9.

I am only trying to figure on hitting an ace or king and not worried about suits or pot odds but only want to make sure I am figuring the Probability correctly.

Michael
Unless you can actually see his cards and know that he has AQ, his cards are unknowns as well. There are still 46 cards left for which you do not know the location. Assuming that your guess is correct for the purpose of calculating odds is only going to get you in trouble.
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07-24-2008 , 05:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by michael02865
I am a bit green when it comes to the math side of hold em
And understanding hand rankings and reading the board. You're winning in your example. Dodge HIS 3 outer and ship it! Work on some basic drills for developing your board reading skills while continuing to learn about poker math. GL!
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07-24-2008 , 05:49 AM
how do you figure he has AQ?
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