Baluga Theorum in practice - Beginning Poker Questions

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Baluga Theorum in practice

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05-31-2015 , 02:45 PM

Blunderer

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 501

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #36589491

BTN: $1.95 (97.5 bb)
Hero (SB): $3.07 (153.5 bb)
BB: $2.27 (113.5 bb)
UTG: $0.76 (38 bb)
MP: $2.73 (136.5 bb)
CO: $1 (50 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

4 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12) 8

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, BB calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.36) 4

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.26, BB raises to $0.52, Hero calls $0.26

River: ($1.40) Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35

Spoiler:

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No real history on villain. Baluga theorem I think says that a re-raise on the turn means your top pair is busto.

Should this have been a fold on the river?

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05-31-2015 , 02:52 PM

PumaPerez

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 277

that theorem dont says raise mean top pair is busto. it says you should strongly reconsider the strenght of your one pair combination

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05-31-2015 , 05:51 PM

Fatboy54

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 3,876

seriously it's 2nl...

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No real history on villain

you do now

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05-31-2015 , 06:03 PM

Blunderer

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 501

cool, thanks for the input....

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05-31-2015 , 06:21 PM

TVC21

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 364

river is a fold

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05-31-2015 , 06:44 PM

Freewill2112

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by TVC21

river is a fold

lol....you don't think you have the best hand here 1 out of 3 times? At 2nl?

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05-31-2015 , 07:56 PM

WereBeer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 10,775

I probably fold river, what does 'no real history' mean though? You have precisely zero info or a small amount?

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06-01-2015 , 03:06 AM

Fatboy54

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 3,876

^^

As WB implies this is entirely a reads based decision. In the absence of any info (although the turn click back suggests fish) why would you not go with the "population read" (as in it's 2nl FFS). To be honest, at 2nl its all meh, so I would not die in a ditch over it either way. The most important thing is that you learn and that you are thinking about your hand/villains hand and not just button clicking...which you clearly are here, so either way wp.

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06-01-2015 , 06:16 AM

Madolite

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 41

I remember that time when I lost my entire 2NL buyin and had to sell my car and house to pay for the loss. Life-changing.

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06-01-2015 , 06:26 AM

#10

Blunderer

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 501

yeah - that would suck

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06-01-2015 , 10:28 AM

#11

Babarberousse

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,752

River is a fold. But I'd probably call if the board pairs any other card than the K on the river.

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06-01-2015 , 11:01 AM

#12

DoTheMath

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 4,689

Quote:

Originally Posted by Freewill2112

lol....you don't think you have the best hand here 1 out of 3 times? At 2nl?

lol... you really think villain is bluffing with air OTT here 1 out of 3 times? At 2nl? Yes fish bluff way too often, but not that often.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fatboy54

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As WB implies this is entirely a reads based decision. In the absence of any info (although the turn click back suggests fish) why would you not go with the "population read" (as in it's 2nl FFS).

A min-raise is a "click-back"? I didn't know the term. Thx.

The population read says that villain had something pretty OTF which improved when he turned a 4

. Might be A4. Might be Q4s. But I'd say it is much more likely to be 2 pair or a straight.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fatboy54

To be honest, at 2nl its all meh, so I would not die in a ditch over it either way. The most important thing is that you learn and that you are thinking about your hand/villains hand and not just button clicking...which you clearly are here, so either way wp.

Yes, OP is thinking and learning, which is good. However, if Baluga says your top pair is not good, then it's a fold on the turn, not on the river.

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06-01-2015 , 11:08 AM

#13

Babarberousse

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,752

Folding OTT is probably too nitty. You have outs vs two pairs, you have showdown value, you have great pot odds and fishes and bad regs often use the minraise for information.

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06-01-2015 , 11:29 AM

#14

otatop

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 12,721

Quote:

Originally Posted by Madolite

I remember that time when I lost my entire 2NL buyin and had to sell my car and house to pay for the loss. Life-changing.

Just because it's not a life changing amount of money doesn't mean you should just not give a **** about making bad calls.

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06-01-2015 , 11:34 AM

#15

DoTheMath

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 4,689

Quote:

Originally Posted by Babarberousse

Folding OTT is probably too nitty. You have outs vs two pairs,

Two

Quote:

Originally Posted by Babarberousse

you have showdown value, you have great pot odds and fishes and bad regs often use the minraise for information.

4.4:1 odds. If bad regs and fish use min raises OTT for information > 2 times out of 11, then

Call, and
Baluga theorem is wrong

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06-01-2015 , 12:06 PM

#16

Babarberousse

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 1,752

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoTheMath

Two[/LIST]

You have 8 outs vs two pairs.

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4.4:1 odds. If bad regs and fish use min raises OTT for information > 2 times out of 11, then[LIST=1][*]Call, and [*]Baluga theorem is wrong

That doesn't make Baluga's theorem wrong. Baluga's theorem says reevaluate the strength of your one pair type hand, not fold to a minraise. Especially not in SBvsBB spots.

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06-01-2015 , 12:44 PM

#17

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

People lose their minds BvB. That said, I would fold to the river bomb, expecting villain to have 88, 66 or 75s pretty often. KQ isn't out of the question either.

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06-02-2015 , 05:55 PM

#18

Madolite

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 41

Quote:

Originally Posted by otatop

Just because it's not a life changing amount of money doesn't mean you should just not give a **** about making bad calls.

It's a joke.

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