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Baluga Theorum in practice Baluga Theorum in practice

05-31-2015 , 02:45 PM
    Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #36589491

    BTN: $1.95 (97.5 bb)
    Hero (SB): $3.07 (153.5 bb)
    BB: $2.27 (113.5 bb)
    UTG: $0.76 (38 bb)
    MP: $2.73 (136.5 bb)
    CO: $1 (50 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
    4 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, BB calls $0.04

    Flop: ($0.12) 8 K 6 (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.12, BB calls $0.12

    Turn: ($0.36) 4 (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.26, BB raises to $0.52, Hero calls $0.26

    River: ($1.40) Q (2 players)
    Hero checks, BB bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35

    Spoiler:
    Results: $4.10 pot ($0.14 rake)
    Final Board: 8 K 6 4 Q
    Hero showed A A and won $3.96 ($1.91 net)
    BB showed 2 Q and lost (-$2.05 net)



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    No real history on villain. Baluga theorem I think says that a re-raise on the turn means your top pair is busto.

    Should this have been a fold on the river?
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    05-31-2015 , 02:52 PM
    that theorem dont says raise mean top pair is busto. it says you should strongly reconsider the strenght of your one pair combination
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    05-31-2015 , 05:51 PM
    seriously it's 2nl...

    Quote:
    No real history on villain
    you do now
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    05-31-2015 , 06:03 PM
    cool, thanks for the input....
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    05-31-2015 , 06:21 PM
    river is a fold
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    05-31-2015 , 06:44 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TVC21
    river is a fold
    lol....you don't think you have the best hand here 1 out of 3 times? At 2nl?
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    05-31-2015 , 07:56 PM
    I probably fold river, what does 'no real history' mean though? You have precisely zero info or a small amount?
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 03:06 AM
    ^^

    As WB implies this is entirely a reads based decision. In the absence of any info (although the turn click back suggests fish) why would you not go with the "population read" (as in it's 2nl FFS). To be honest, at 2nl its all meh, so I would not die in a ditch over it either way. The most important thing is that you learn and that you are thinking about your hand/villains hand and not just button clicking...which you clearly are here, so either way wp.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 06:16 AM
    I remember that time when I lost my entire 2NL buyin and had to sell my car and house to pay for the loss. Life-changing.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 06:26 AM
    yeah - that would suck
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 10:28 AM
    River is a fold. But I'd probably call if the board pairs any other card than the K on the river.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 11:01 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Freewill2112
    lol....you don't think you have the best hand here 1 out of 3 times? At 2nl?
    lol... you really think villain is bluffing with air OTT here 1 out of 3 times? At 2nl? Yes fish bluff way too often, but not that often.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Fatboy54
    ...

    As WB implies this is entirely a reads based decision. In the absence of any info (although the turn click back suggests fish) why would you not go with the "population read" (as in it's 2nl FFS).
    A min-raise is a "click-back"? I didn't know the term. Thx.

    The population read says that villain had something pretty OTF which improved when he turned a 4. Might be A4. Might be Q4s. But I'd say it is much more likely to be 2 pair or a straight.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Fatboy54
    To be honest, at 2nl its all meh, so I would not die in a ditch over it either way. The most important thing is that you learn and that you are thinking about your hand/villains hand and not just button clicking...which you clearly are here, so either way wp.
    Yes, OP is thinking and learning, which is good. However, if Baluga says your top pair is not good, then it's a fold on the turn, not on the river.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 11:08 AM
    Folding OTT is probably too nitty. You have outs vs two pairs, you have showdown value, you have great pot odds and fishes and bad regs often use the minraise for information.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 11:29 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Madolite
    I remember that time when I lost my entire 2NL buyin and had to sell my car and house to pay for the loss. Life-changing.
    Just because it's not a life changing amount of money doesn't mean you should just not give a **** about making bad calls.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 11:34 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Babarberousse
    Folding OTT is probably too nitty. You have outs vs two pairs,
    Two

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Babarberousse
    you have showdown value, you have great pot odds and fishes and bad regs often use the minraise for information.
    4.4:1 odds. If bad regs and fish use min raises OTT for information > 2 times out of 11, then
    1. Call, and
    2. Baluga theorem is wrong
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 12:06 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DoTheMath
    Two[/LIST]
    You have 8 outs vs two pairs.

    Quote:
    4.4:1 odds. If bad regs and fish use min raises OTT for information > 2 times out of 11, then[LIST=1][*]Call, and [*]Baluga theorem is wrong
    That doesn't make Baluga's theorem wrong. Baluga's theorem says reevaluate the strength of your one pair type hand, not fold to a minraise. Especially not in SBvsBB spots.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-01-2015 , 12:44 PM
    People lose their minds BvB. That said, I would fold to the river bomb, expecting villain to have 88, 66 or 75s pretty often. KQ isn't out of the question either.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote
    06-02-2015 , 05:55 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by otatop
    Just because it's not a life changing amount of money doesn't mean you should just not give a **** about making bad calls.
    It's a joke.
    Baluga Theorum in practice Quote

          
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