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b afraid of str8 & flush draws? b afraid of str8 & flush draws?

08-17-2011 , 12:51 PM
I know in poker the answer is always "it all depends". But let's take the following situations.

1- 10 player home game or B&M MTT. Players r both nits and good players 6 folds, 4 calls for 100 bucks each. Hero has k of hearts, Q of clubs in the bb. Flop comes 5c, Qd, 8c. If I'm correct. I am 63.3/33.3 favorite. Should I bet as I'm going to win the hand and no club draw is going to suckout or should I b cautious in my betting?
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-17-2011 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHIPIT2ME
I know in poker the answer is always "it all depends". But let's take the following situations.

1- 10 player home game or B&M MTT. Players r both nits and good players 6 folds, 4 calls for 100 bucks each. Hero has k of hearts, Q of clubs in the bb. Flop comes 5c, Qd, 8c. If I'm correct. I am 63.3/33.3 favorite. Should I bet as I'm going to win the hand and no club draw is going to suckout or should I b cautious in my betting?
I'm not sure where you come up with 63.3/33.3. Against 3 opponents in a limped pot, it is unlikely you have that high a probability of winning with only one pair (and they don't add to 100, so I don't know where you get the numbers).

There are 3 opponents. At this point, collectively, they could have about anything. The fact that they all limped into the pot actually suggests that they aren't good players, but that is a different issue.

There is no reason to think one of them has a flush draw or straight draw, or that they don't have one. The likelihood is that your top pair is ahead, and you should bet. If you get a caller or two, you now have to start thinking that they might have a draw. If you get raised, you have to have serious concerns about your hand. In an unraised, multi-way pot, you do not want to risk your entire stack with 1 pair.

I think your real question is more about if you are pretty sure you are ahead but that your opponent has a draw. In this case you need to bet for value, and to avoid giving him a free chance to beat you. You want to bet enough so that he is not getting correct odds to call, but will be enticed to call. If you make it too much he will probably fold and you get no value; if you make it too little he will be getting the correct price to call and in the long run you will lose money. If you check, he is getting a super price and in the long run you will lose money.
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-17-2011 , 07:43 PM
I ran this through Equilab. (It's just like Pokerstove)

If all three villains have completely random cards, you have just under 59.35% equity.
Each random villain has about 13.5%
Realistically, each player will have "better than random" cards, unless they really would limp with 92 or T4, so you actually have less than 60%, and possibly a lot less.

There is a nice rule (which I often fail to follow) which is "Play big pots with strong hands and small pots with weak hands". Top pair with second best kicker is not a particularly strong hand against 3 opponents. It's way ahead of 3 entirely random players (they could have 72o), but it's losing to AA, KK, QQ, AQ, Q8, Q5, 88, 55, and 85.
You definitely don't want to be getting all in on the flop. If no one calls, you gain nothing, but anyone that calls a big raise probably has you crushed, so it's spewing. You don't want to make a tiny bet either, because that will entice other players to chase even weak draws.

Two things you want to do and that can be achieved by betting are:
1. Find out where you're at (see who else is strong).
2. Protect your hand (drive out the weakest hands, so they can't draw out on you).

How much to bet is where everyone has disagreements, and the greatest players make their living. Something between half the pot and full pot is advised, but it all depends on the texture of the flop. Sometimes you'll want to bet fairly big on scary flops, and sometimes not bet at all. You need to work out what your opponents have. Your example had a flush draw and also a couple of gutshot draws, but it's not as scary as something like Q98 or QJ8, and it's by no means certain that someone has any draw.
In some situations, all 3 players will fold to any bet. They just didn't get any piece of the flop. In others, they'll call on the flop, but then fold if you bet the turn and they didn't improve.
Ideally you'd want to bet enough to make people with a weaker hand call. Unfortunately, anyone with a flush draw (especially if it's with the ace) is probably going to call or even raise your bet. That's OK. They are still the underdog. Lower pairs are welcome to come along for the ride, provided they don't make trips, or 2 pr.
The great skill in poker, is working out what other players have. If someone raises you on this flop, then think of what they could have and re-calculate your equity using this new information. Re-examine the board texture on the turn. Did the flush get there? Another straight card maybe? If it looks like a blank, bet again to drive out a villain, or gain more info. Always be prepared to fold if it looks like an opponent made his hand. Since you kept the pot small with this marginal hand, you're not losing much. Re-evaluate again on the river, but then work out how much value can you extract from the remaining opponent. If you think he has a queen with a worse kicker, make a bet you hope he will call. If you think you're probably beaten, check it down for a free showdown, or fold to villain's value bet.

There's no standard way to play "all top pair flops", "all flops with 2 of same suit", or "all flops that pair the board". Keep playing and experimenting. Watch what other players bet/raise with (if it reaches showdown) and learn a bit more about equity by playing about with Pokerstove or watching some poker on TV, where it shows you the players' % chance of winning at showdown. Good luck!
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-17-2011 , 11:31 PM
smart comments from arty, good insights - thanks. so much to learn about this darn game. i make biggest losses on villian longshot coolers it seems, eg lose my A-high flush to villian 6-7-8-9-10 straight flush, hard to guard against these longshot wins, esp when you go all in with near-nut to lose to nut hands
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 12:25 AM
Nice post Arty, I followed up your work and stoved it with 3 villains on 70% ranges which is overly wide but allows for all the possible suited hands that are likely to be seen. Limpers are the hardest to figure out, which is what would worry me in this hand anyway.

Equity then works out to 19% for villains and 43% for Hero, but discount Hero's equity by the reality that villain's ranges should be weighted more to hands that contain at least one broadway card, small-med suited connectors and small-med PP so 43% is optimistic.

OP with that estimated equity then, you want to bet this flop for sure. As Arty says, no way you can give anyone free cards. But you also want to control the size of the pot here, you have a hand with good showdown value so your goal at this point is to take it to showdown if possible. Betting also accomplishes the 2 things Arty numbered.

Bet 1/2 pot here is enough to fold hands that missed the flop or are super weak, but flush draws will still be able to call and OESD most likely. You are still keeping the pot from bloating. Unfortunately you almost can't bet enough to force out flush draws at this point, they only need 2:1 so accept that. On the turn you can sometimes force out a flush draw as they need nearly 4:1 to call profitably but most will call with less anyway. Any gutshot or backdoor draws will not be drawing profitably, nor will lower pairs and Q's with weak kickers, so you are getting the best of it if any call.

After the value bet on flop, what follows will be completely dependent on how many callers, if any raise etc. etc. and what card peels on turn and river. This is where you have to narrow down what ranges to put on your opponents, and what actions they are taking may affect your willingness to continue in the hand. So "it depends" from that point on. Like Arty says, there is no standard way to play top pair.

But always consider how best to manage the pot size if you have decent to good showdown value with your hand. Don't make the mistake many players do and end up turning it into a bluff hand (shoving on turn when a scare card comes off like 3rd club or A)
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 02:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokes
Two things you want to do and that can be achieved by betting are:
1. Find out where you're at (see who else is strong).
2. Protect your hand (drive out the weakest hands, so they can't draw out on you).
1. Is not correct, you should not bet to find out where you're at.
2. Is not really correct either, you want weaker hands to call but you want bet enough so that by calling they are making a mistake by paying too much to see another card.

You bet for value (so weaker hands will call), as a bluff (so better hands fold) and as a semi-bluff (so your combined bluff equity and hand equity yields a positive EV).
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 02:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PapaPyrite
Bet 1/2 pot here is enough to fold hands that missed the flop or are super weak, but flush draws will still be able to call and OESD most likely. You are still keeping the pot from bloating. Unfortunately you almost can't bet enough to force out flush draws at this point, they only need 2:1 so accept that. On the turn you can sometimes force out a flush draw as they need nearly 4:1 to call profitably but most will call with less anyway. Any gutshot or backdoor draws will not be drawing profitably, nor will lower pairs and Q's with weak kickers, so you are getting the best of it if any call.
Uhh, no. If you're getting people to call with bare FDs on the flop getting 2 to 1, you're making money. The flush is ~4 to 1 to come on the turn and ~4 to 1 to come on the river, but making a call getting 2 to 1 on the flop only buys you the first of those 2 chances.
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 03:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duncelanas
Uhh, no. If you're getting people to call with bare FDs on the flop getting 2 to 1, you're making money. The flush is ~4 to 1 to come on the turn and ~4 to 1 to come on the river, but making a call getting 2 to 1 on the flop only buys you the first of those 2 chances.
Yeah, I'm well aware of odds for one card. But as you know all out charts list 2 cards to come as well, and we both know many many situations that either a free card can be manipulated or an all-in situation happens on a flop where the actual odds are exactly 1.9:1

Assuming your scenario where consecutive bets are made for less than stacks then yes it is profitable for us to have bare FD call 2:1 drawing each card 4:1

I was using a fairly simple example there, one that matches all the common out charts. This is the BQ forum after all.

In my simplified example, player with flush draw facing 1/2 pot bet should ideally raise IP, and often works OOP on a c/r. On top of the FE, if called then he could get that free turn card possibly and still be priced at 2:1 or better. Alternatively he can shove, and get 2:1 pot odds (assuming he's not very deep) and 2 cards to hit.

Your point is taken though, I did not fully state all the possibilities and it is 4:1 for next card only with no other factors considered.

Last edited by PapaPyrite; 08-18-2011 at 03:30 AM.
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 03:09 AM
Quote:
I know in poker the answer is always "it all depends".
OP is tossing levels you guys

The key to the answer is the reads
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 01:11 PM
I think the 2 best ways to deal with people drawing is to either price out all draws or price in draws then soul read and fold when they hit.
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
1. Is not correct, you should not bet to find out where you're at.
2. Is not really correct either, you want weaker hands to call but you want bet enough so that by calling they are making a mistake by paying too much to see another card.
I was enjoying following ArtySmokes post until I read this.

Re first point. Could you amplify? I'm sure I read Harrington to advise betting as a means to find out where you are at??? Am I missing something.

Re second point...surely you are both saying the same thing here? Bit semantical is it not?
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 02:42 PM
I think it may be a matter of semantics. Arty was not saying bet to find out where you are, but that betting helps us determine that as Harrington states. The bet on flop with Hero holding top pair good kicker is a value bet, which also helps us determine opponent strengths and serves to fold out a weak hand that could beat us if allowed to draw free.

If weaker hands call not getting pot odds then we profit so we want them to call, however there is a point where getting too many callers can be -EV even if each one is paying too much to draw profitably by themselves. I don't want to tackle that math to find out what point odds of 1 out of 6 callers hitting a draw would be, but hypothetically it would exist. Sklansky refers to this as "thinning the herd" and advises players to do with bet sizing on flop.

Mr Beer is absolutely correct, bet for value or to bluff or semi bluff (I would add block also) those are the only reasons to bet. A c-bet would be a hybrid probably either a pure bluff or semi bluff but if you caught part of the flop it could be a value bet. You were planning on making that bet on flop because you opened preflop which is why I would call it a hybrid bet.
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Beer
1. Is not correct, you should not bet to find out where you're at.
Do you not make probing bets? Betting for information is pretty standard I thought.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Beer
2. Is not really correct either, you want weaker hands to call but you want bet enough so that by calling they are making a mistake by paying too much to see another card.
You're right with this. I got slightly muddled and that sentence looks particularly bad when taken out of context.
What I should have emphasised (as another poster alluded to) is that some hands are good enough that even if they fail to improve further, you want to get them to showdown fairly cheaply, but others are vulnerable, so you want to take the pot down on the flop, or make it expensive for opponents to draw out on you. How strong or vulnerable your hand is depends on the texture of the flop and what hands you think the opponents have.
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokes
Do you not make probing bets? Betting for information is pretty standard I thought.
OMG no it's not....you either have it or you don't, Bet for value, don't be afraid to shove on his range.

Betting for a probe is like driving a car without a seatbelt, you feel naked almost
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote
08-18-2011 , 11:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokes
Do you not make probing bets?
No.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokes
What I should have emphasised (as another poster alluded to) is that some hands are good enough that even if they fail to improve further, you want to get them to showdown fairly cheaply, but others are vulnerable, so you want to take the pot down on the flop, or make it expensive for opponents to draw out on you. How strong or vulnerable your hand is depends on the texture of the flop and what hands you think the opponents have.
1. "some hands are good enough that even if they fail to improve further, you want to get them to showdown fairly cheaply"

I'm not sure what this means exactly...there are plenty of occasions I would like to showdown for a small pot but not because they are 'good enough that even if they fail to improve further'.

2. 'but others are vulnerable, so you want to take the pot down on the flop, or make it expensive for opponents to draw out on you'

Any hand bar a few monsters is vulnerable so this makes the sentence 1. above even more confusing IMO. Anyway, I suppose it's comforting to take a marginal hand down on the flop but if we are ahead it's more EV if we don't take it down and rather villain calls, assuming we are charging draws properly. I agree we should make it expensive for the villain to draw out on us.
b afraid of str8 & flush draws? Quote

      
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